Will people return to cruising?

[smmco]

It's hard to believe that this week I was supposed to be flying into Miami for my cruise on the Magic. I knew it wasn't going but I would still get on a ship if given the opportunity. With my luck...I still wouldn't be able to secure a reservation for Palo brunch....

I was supposed to be on a plane to Orlando today. I’m pretty sure I’m changing my August Europe cruise to next year, but still hoping for WDW in July and a land trip to Europe late Summer or Fall. If I do take a cruise this year it’s going to be very last minute. I want to make sure the ships actually going to sail. I don’t want to be disappointed again.

 

[smmco]

Sailing? I’d do that too.
But, not going on a cruise ship

Cruises are also referred to as sailings.

 

[KashasMom]

I think everyone can agree that an economic depression combined with continued worries about the virus will lead to some reduction in demand. There is zero chance that demand will stay unchanged.

They have 4 smallish ships to fill, not 20 ships and no mega-ships. I don't think there will be a problem. Not to mention the loyal cruisers who easily drop $10/20,000 to cruise on Disney. We'll just have to wait and see. I'm not holding my breathe for any great deal though.

 

[ahen]

It's hard to believe that this week I was supposed to be flying into Miami for my cruise on the Magic. I knew it wasn't going but I would still get on a ship if given the opportunity. With my luck...I still wouldn't be able to secure a reservation for Palo brunch....

So my husband and I think that Palo brunch which we have never had is our jinx. We were scheduled for one last August, he got sick and I canceled which hopefully made someone else's day, we had it on our Fantasy cruise which we had to cancel for a family illness the day the cruise was to depart, we had it for our Med cruise which was canceled. Didn't manage it for the Dream cruise this month which has now been canceled. I am so over canceled

 

[lds0191]

Just a guess, but I think DCL prefers the continuous cash flow. They'd rather take your money then give a future credit than give a refund

I had not thought of that but it makes sense.

 

[cgolf]

They have 4 smallish ships to fill, not 20 ships and no mega-ships. I don't think there will be a problem. Not to mention the loyal cruisers who easily drop $10/20,000 to cruise on Disney. We'll just have to wait and see. I'm not holding my breathe for any great deal though.

I deleted my other replies because my name is probably blocked by many on here even though I was way pro DCL for a long time.

Do you really believe when this is done that enough people are going to have that kind of money laying around to fill the ships? Or people are going to be willing to still live paycheck to paycheck to just to cruise DCL? I think in 3-4 years the latter will be true, because people will forget, but I feel there isn't going to be a lot extra money being spent as we recover. I honestly hope those that have it spend it on their local businesses to help our communities recover instead of cruise lines, or both. This isn't going to be a quick economic recovery, but I hope I am proven wrong.

 

[Bella29]

My family and I would cruise right now if they let us. We take the virus seriously, but we are very encouraged by the updated statistics and the fact that most hospitals have plenty of capacity. I don't see how the government of a free country can quarantine healthy people, take away jobs and shut down businesses much longer. I think we can open back up and allow individuals to make the right choices for themselves (e.g. some vulnerable folks will need to continue to protect/shelter themselves, some will prefer to avoid cruises, concerts, and other large gatherings, etc.).

 

[KashasMom]

I deleted my other replies because my name is probably blocked by many on here even though I was way pro DCL for a long time.

Do you really believe when this is done that enough people are going to have that kind of money laying around to fill the ships? Or people are going to be willing to still live paycheck to paycheck to just to cruise DCL? I think in 3-4 years the latter will be true, because people will forget, but I feel there isn't going to be a lot extra money being spent as we recover. I honestly hope those that have it spend it on their local businesses to help our communities recover instead of cruise lines, or both. This isn't going to be a quick economic recovery, but I hope I am proven wrong.

I hadn't blocked you. Believe me, I understand that many people are struggling. In our own community people are donating food/money to several families. Some lost their jobs weeks ago and cannot even get unemployment; others are praying their company survives so they have a job to go back to. But I also think there are many people who will weather the storm okay. Based on the travel groups I belong to people can't wait to travel - even cruising. And of course, this is such a plastic society that there will be those who will just charge their vacations. At this point, no one knows what's going to happen - I don't think the prognosis is good at all - but hopefully we're both wrong.

Just a note - I don't think you should not post because someone may have blocked you. Everyone's opinions or contributions should be accepted whether we agree or not, but I totally understand what you are saying! This can be a rough place if your opinion isn't in line with most others.

 

[BartmanLA]

While I think we all agree we all hope cruising would come back and soon, DCL like the other cruise lines have to weigh the opportunity for revenue versus the potential liability and the fact that the public is litigation prone in taking into consideration whether to resume operations. I don't think any of the lines want to run the risk of what Princess is going through currently with their legal issues over their extended cruises that ended up being a harbinger of infections on board. The risk vs reward ratio at this current time leans very far in the "wait and see" category.

 

[brentm77]

They have 4 smallish ships to fill, not 20 ships and no mega-ships. I don't think there will be a problem. Not to mention the loyal cruisers who easily drop $10/20,000 to cruise on Disney. We'll just have to wait and see. I'm not holding my breathe for any great deal though.

We plan on it, absent something unusual. We have one in March, which is probably the most iffy. But, we just rebooked our Italy/Greek isle cruise for June 2021. We had not planned to rebook Italy, but Disney surprised is this morning by refunding our deposit for this year's cancellation even though we have canceled before they officially canceled the cruise. It was a nice gesture, money we weren't counting on, and motivated us to put it down for next year's cruise. We really hope things work out, since this was our dream vacation.

 

[AquaDame]

I deleted my other replies because my name is probably blocked by many on here even though I was way pro DCL for a long time.

Do you really believe when this is done that enough people are going to have that kind of money laying around to fill the ships? Or people are going to be willing to still live paycheck to paycheck to just to cruise DCL? I think in 3-4 years the latter will be true, because people will forget, but I feel there isn't going to be a lot extra money being spent as we recover. I honestly hope those that have it spend it on their local businesses to help our communities recover instead of cruise lines, or both. This isn't going to be a quick economic recovery, but I hope I am proven wrong.

I'm not sure why you'd delete them because some people might not be seeing them..? I'm very sorry you feel that is necessary.

What I believe is that Disney also expects some people to be more averse and that is why they are offering people they can't serve today a 25% bonus if they rebook within the next 15 months. They're trying to cut as many losses and hold on to as much money as possible for now. Since travel is going to stay complicated they'll likely double down on last minute CM offers, *GT, and resident only deals to help fill the ships as needed rather than offers to people who might have to spend a lot more money and hassle to get there. Summer is already a wash, and hurricane season/winter is typically when we see the most deals anyway. Cancelled cruises this year are helping fill up next spring break and summer nicely, probably in those higher categories too since people have "extra" money.

At the price point they've had their cruises for the last several years they might even luck out and their customer base might be in the higher income bracket of people who are relatively unphased by the current economy. Certainly folks in the UK and EU are faring better financially as their governments are providing more of a social net to people impacted.

If the economy doesn't improve enough for them to recover then maybe after the current round of vacations and bookings expire they might try something else - but they seem to be setting things up to try and hold out for at least a year. I suspect the next couple rounds of releases will be business as usual while we all wait and see what happens longer term.

If cruising can even continue as it had... of course.

 

[MomOTwins]

At the price point they've had their cruises for the last several years they might even luck out and their customer base might be in the higher income bracket of people who are relatively unphased by the current economy.

This is definitely a factor--they have never been a budget cruise line for sure. But I do think just anecdotally from social media groups i've been in, there is also a pretty substantial contingent of disney cruise passengers that are splurging on a once-in-a-lifetime dream vacation. Also, even setting aside the money factor, there are a lot of international guests who may be unable to come to the US due to travel restrictions, or unwilling to given the extent of our Covid outbreak.

I also do think that unless they lower prices this year, we may do something different. We were already PIF on our May cruise when we rebooked for later this year, and took the 100% non-refundable credit so that money is tied up now. But we significantly downsized our pre-cruise WDW stay (from 6 days at a deluxe to 3 days at a moderate with free dining). Definitely hoping for discounts next year though. I'm a total addict--we did one non-disney vacation at an all-inclusive beach resort in the last two years and it was a total bust -- just kept falling short of the Disney experience.

 

[cgolf]

I hadn't blocked you. Believe me, I understand that many people are struggling. In our own community people are donating food/money to several families. Some lost their jobs weeks ago and cannot even get unemployment; others are praying their company survives so they have a job to go back to. But I also think there are many people who will weather the storm okay. Based on the travel groups I belong to people can't wait to travel - even cruising. And of course, this is such a plastic society that there will be those who will just charge their vacations. At this point, no one knows what's going to happen - I don't think the prognosis is good at all - but hopefully we're both wrong.

Just a note - I don't think you should not post because someone may have blocked you. Everyone's opinions or contributions should be accepted whether we agree or not, but I totally understand what you are saying! This can be a rough place if your opinion isn't in line with most others.

I'm not sure why you'd delete them because some people might not be seeing them..? I'm very sorry you feel that is necessary.

I saved them and can put them back, ended up one post short so not perfectly back. I was a Pro DCL positive force on here for 4+ years but that changed with the prices. We are thrifty family that loved the DCL product but we aren't a Disney family. So we were early bail outs when the prices jumped initially. I was one that commented on it here, and had good conversations with some, there were some that wanted us to disappear from the boards. It was an emotional time as we lost our cruise line of choice and had to branch out. Guessing a few may have blocked me back then and since, I encourage others not to be afraid to try other lines. I have learned not to be loyal to a cruise line, and now just price out DCL, RCCL, and Celebrity when we book. All lines our Dreams TA handles so I am loyal to our TA . Took a while to be at peace with that last sentence though and truly didn't happen till we set foot on our first non DCL Ship. I am looking forward to the Wish, Celebrities new build is great, hope DCL's will be too.

I always check back here because there are a ton of great posters here that I value their opinions about DCL and cruising in general. Also a much friendlier board too

 

[DnA2010]

DH ( frontline medical worker) says he will consider cruising again say 2022...lots of factors involved in that of course. Maybe by then DCL prices will come down to where we can do one again!

 

[dprincessmom]

We will be back - ours hasn't cancelled yet (July) if it sails, we will be there! and yes I know that is a huge IF

 

[gotomu212]

I'm not sure why you'd delete them because some people might not be seeing them..? I'm very sorry you feel that is necessary.

What I believe is that Disney also expects some people to be more averse and that is why they are offering people they can't serve today a 25% bonus if they rebook within the next 15 months. They're trying to cut as many losses and hold on to as much money as possible for now. Since travel is going to stay complicated they'll likely double down on last minute CM offers, *GT, and resident only deals to help fill the ships as needed rather than offers to people who might have to spend a lot more money and hassle to get there. Summer is already a wash, and hurricane season/winter is typically when we see the most deals anyway. Cancelled cruises this year are helping fill up next spring break and summer nicely, probably in those higher categories too since people have "extra" money.

At the price point they've had their cruises for the last several years they might even luck out and their customer base might be in the higher income bracket of people who are relatively unphased by the current economy. Certainly folks in the UK and EU are faring better financially as their governments are providing more of a social net to people impacted.

If the economy doesn't improve enough for them to recover then maybe after the current round of vacations and bookings expire they might try something else - but they seem to be setting things up to try and hold out for at least a year. I suspect the next couple rounds of releases will be business as usual while we all wait and see what happens longer term.

If cruising can even continue as it had... of course.

Personally my guess is that the 25% credit is doing two things a) allows DCL to hang on to your money also increasing the likelihood that you might not cancel b) helps fill next years sailings which my guess would be they are significantly down by themselves but are staying more filled with the rebookings.

My big question- which we won’t know until maybe next spring- is how will DCL handle it if they do need to drop prices significantly or offer discounts and they have all these people who hung with them at these high prices and are after PIF. Prices have risen so fast that even if they had to roll back to 2017 prices there’s going to be a big gap. I know I always want to kick myself when a VGT rate comes out after Ive paid a lot more.

Its all speculation but I find consumer behavior so interesting that it’s fun to discuss.

 

[KKKKCS]

I'd get on a ship tomorrow if they were sailing. This thing is going to run it's course regardless of what we do. A vaccine or "herd immunity" are the only ways to stop it. By hiding in our homes and not interacting with one another we are only delaying the inevitable. And the latest data shows the mortality rate is no worse than a regular flu season. The worst one I can remember was the swine flu. In the USA there were 60million+ infected, 810,000+ hospitalized, and 61,000+ deaths, and not a single business shut down, not a single school closed, and we definitely didn't destroy the world economy over it. This is the first time is history that we have quarantined the healthy. If you are sick, if you are old, or if you have a serious medical condition, stay home. That is the smart thing to do. But if you are not in one of those categories, wash your hands and live your life.

 

[wombat_5606]

And the latest data shows the mortality rate is no worse than a regular flu season. T

Sorry, there are a large number of documents available to you on the internet that tell you that this statement is not true.

From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus.

The above is straight from the CDC document. It was 12,469 deaths over an entire year. They weren't dealing with 60,000 plus deaths in the US alone in only 14 weeks.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html

You, I guess are only worried, or should I say, not worried about the number of deaths. Do you not care about the I MILLION positive cases in the US? Do you not care about some of the deaths are occurring in all age groups?

I think by now, virtually every state has some kind of plan in place to get their people back to work. It's coming, ok.

At the end of April, to still see posts like this are disheartening. Educate yourself and listen to the people that know what they are doing, like medical professionals and scientists.

 

[AquaDame]

I'd get on a ship tomorrow if they were sailing. This thing is going to run it's course regardless of what we do. A vaccine or "herd immunity" are the only ways to stop it. By hiding in our homes and not interacting with one another we are only delaying the inevitable. And the latest data shows the mortality rate is no worse than a regular flu season. The worst one I can remember was the swine flu. In the USA there were 60million+ infected, 810,000+ hospitalized, and 61,000+ deaths, and not a single business shut down, not a single school closed, and we definitely didn't destroy the world economy over it. This is the first time is history that we have quarantined the healthy. If you are sick, if you are old, or if you have a serious medical condition, stay home. That is the smart thing to do. But if you are not in one of those categories, wash your hands and live your life.

From https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/hea...ronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu

Infections
COVID-19: Approximately 3,127,519 cases worldwide; 1,012,583 cases in the U.S. as of Apr. 29, 2020.*
Flu: Estimated 1 billion cases worldwide; 9.3 million to 45 million cases in the U.S. per year.

Deaths
COVID-19: Approximately 217,674 deaths reported worldwide; 58,355 deaths in the U.S., as of Apr. 29, 2020.*
Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

Basically, far fewer cases, in a shorter time frame, leading to just under the same number of deaths as the flu in an entire year. Mind you that is a WORST CASE SCENARIO year for flu according to the numbers. So far that seems to point to higher mortality statistically - and yes I know we aren't testing everyone. We don't test everyone for the flu each year either.

Delaying the inevitable IS the point. Slowing the spread, gathering resources, getting a plan, biding time so the vaccine is closer. No one is saying social distancing is going to fix anything. Swine flu was not as easy to transmit.

 

[wombat_5606]

Infections
COVID-19: Approximately 3,127,519 cases worldwide; 1,012,583 cases in the U.S. as of Apr. 29, 2020.*
Flu: Estimated 1 billion cases worldwide; 9.3 million to 45 million cases in the U.S. per year.

Deaths
COVID-19: Approximately 217,674 deaths reported worldwide; 58,355 deaths in the U.S., as of Apr. 29, 2020.*
Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.

I want to point out that the Covid figures are with some kind of stay at home order in most of the states. If we had not done that........?