No flight of passage fast passes

[fractalpotato]

Disagree. There is not an iota of evidence they hold any for use day-of.

I just listed four very real reasons for doing so, there's simply no way Disney would drop 100% of their capacity in one shot and tie their hands like that. That would be insanity, that sort of thinking is how United ended up with a massive PR problem from having their flights overbooked. I'm not saying it all gets released for day-of use, they may decide they need to hold the capacity for VIP/closures/etc but they have it and if they think it's a good idea to release it day-of, they will.

Matt

 

[mesaboy2]

Theories aside, there is not an iota of actual evidence they hold any for use day-of.

 

[fractalpotato]

Theories aside, there is not an iota of actual evidence they hold any for use day-of.

There's also no concrete evidence they don't, so I'm going to go with what makes sense from a logistics/engineering standpoint, given that Disney is extremely good at that. I guess we can agree to disagree on this one, it's not like either of us will ever know for sure anyway

Matt

 

[Disneyepcot]

It appears like more evening fast passes have been added for FOP between about Sept 5 to Sept 8. I did not check every day but the 5th and 8th showed up.

 

[robl45]

I think peope are actually blowing things out of proportion. Theme parks = wait in line. At my local six flags, on a summer day, I can't do every rollercoaster in one day.

You can still go to Disney and not plan anything and still do every rides you want. Only a handful of rides always have an hour wait, and are usually doable in the morning or late at night.

The only thing I ageee is ADR. But there is so much good QS options, you can also forgo table restaurant...

Um No, most rides are still 30 plus minutes long or longer. as the other person said its tedious at this point planning a disney vacation. So much so that it may be our last especially with Disney cutting hours. My kids are tall enough for most universal rides and express pass unlimited sounds mighty nice compared to Disney nonsense and I LOVE disney.

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

I know the popular consensus here is that they don't, and I understand why people feel that way, but there is no way. Disney controls the supply, they wouldn't give up that level of control entirely. Some FastPass capacity is always held back, I'd bet my Mickey hat on it, there are a number of attractive reasons for this:

1. Rides occasionally go down and FPs need to be issued with no guarantee but reasonable guesses on where they'll be used. You want to account for this.
2. VIP tours and higher do exist, when a massive celebrity goes to WDW and has a formal entourage, Disney does not tell them "Well, you didn't decide two months ago to come here so you can't ride the popular stuff."
3. When managing such a massive logistics operation, you must simply leave room to manipulate factors in any way you might need to. Disney is the king of logistics and managing huge scale operations with ease, and they do that by making sure they're never out of critical resources.
4. Artificial scarcity to drive up demand is a thing, it's subconscious but if everyone tells you "this new ride is so hard to get on because it's constantly packed" that's a subtle endorsement. It makes people more interested, this is basically economics, another thing the mouse has mastered quite well.

So, from a practical and technical standpoint, I'm just not buying the argument that they don't hold capacity back for day-of and other uses. Day-of may not the priority but if they end up not needing the capacity between day 60 and day 0, then it doesn't make sense to keep all of it held anymore.

Matt

Yes they don't need FP in the sense that it isn't booked and scanned, but it's still a slot in the FP capacity queue for the day that was held back to be available to them. There is some number of people the ride can handle a day under perfect conditions, if they issue that many FPs, there is no time for things like VIPs. It's all in the balancing act.

Matt

The VIP tours though..the thing is:

1) They can be booked up to 180days in advance for Private Premium VIP tour and the Ultimate VIP tour
2) You must give 48hrs notice if you plan to cancel or you forfeit $$ (how much depends on the tour booked)
3) You select the time of the day you want to be picked up and if you want to go park hop with at least the Private Premium VIP tour
4) Many other details etc

Here's my thought VIP tours are a separate thing than FP availability and don't have a correlation. As in it just doesn't make much sense that Disney treats it the same as FP with slots of time and capacity, etc. With VIP you are escorted to the ride but if you don't want to go on a particular ride Disney isn't going to force you. So let's say no one has an interest in going on Space Mountain well how is Disney going to logistically account for those on the tours and their wants/desires in terms of working within their FP system. They actually promote that they customize it to your desire. You could say "yes we want to go to Space Mountain" in advance and then switch your decision and say "No we don't want to do that"..and they will adjust accordingly on the fly like that. They aren't going to say "well we didn't set aside a slot of time for you for that and that ride already has enough people in the FP line so yeah no".

Simply put VIP tours likely have priority here so if that means people in the SB or FP line have to wait a few mins more well they will. And honestly if you're spending $400-$600 per hr plus the cost of theme park admission for the Private Premium Tours or the Ultimate Day of Thrill VIP Tour that costs $299 plus tax per person plus cost of theme park admission, etc you probably should get something out of it.

As far as rides going down that it a complete unknown from day to day from year to year (weather patterns adjusting, crowds adjusting, etc) how do they account for that? In a nutshell too many unknowns to even simply figure out how many you would even set aside. Sometimes with too many factors you take the easier route of just not accounting for them rather than try to calculate all the possibilities and account for them.

Artifical scarcity..I get your line of thinking but really that makes little sense when you actually see it in practice.

I don't know either way sure but I don't necessarily agree with your rationales for why they do in your opinion set aside same-day FPs and that's totally fine that we don't agree.

 

[Meg1031]

It appears like more evening fast passes have been added for FOP between about Sept 5 to Sept 8. I did not check every day but the 5th and 8th showed up.

September 9 & 10 have added evening ones as well.

 

[fractalpotato]

The VIP tours though..the thing is:

1) They can be booked up to 180days in advance for Private Premium VIP tour and the Ultimate VIP tour
2) You must give 48hrs notice if you plan to cancel or you forfeit $$ (how much depends on the tour booked)
3) You select the time of the day you want to be picked up and if you want to go park hop with at least the Private Premium VIP tour
4) Many other details etc

Here's my thought VIP tours are a separate thing than FP availability and don't have a correlation. As in it just doesn't make much sense that Disney treats it the same as FP with slots of time and capacity, etc. With VIP you are escorted to the ride but if you don't want to go on a particular ride Disney isn't going to force you. So let's say no one has an interest in going on Space Mountain well how is Disney going to logistically account for those on the tours and their wants/desires in terms of working within their FP system. They actually promote that they customize it to your desire. You could say "yes we want to go to Space Mountain" in advance and then switch your decision and say "No we don't want to do that"..and they will adjust accordingly on the fly like that. They aren't going to say "well we didn't set aside a slot of time for you for that and that ride already has enough people in the FP line so yeah no".

Simply put VIP tours likely have priority here so if that means people in the SB or FP line have to wait a few mins more well they will. And honestly if you're spending $400-$600 per hr plus the cost of theme park admission for the Private Premium Tours or the Ultimate Day of Thrill VIP Tour that costs $299 plus tax per person plus cost of theme park admission, etc you probably should get something out of it.

As far as rides going down that it a complete unknown from day to day from year to year (weather patterns adjusting, crowds adjusting, etc) how do they account for that? In a nutshell too many unknowns to even simply figure out how many you would even set aside. Sometimes with too many factors you take the easier route of just not accounting for them rather than try to calculate all the possibilities and account for them.

Artifical scarcity..I get your line of thinking but really that makes little sense when you actually see it in practice.

I don't know either way sure but I don't necessarily agree with your rationales for why they do in your opinion set aside same-day FPs and that's totally fine that we don't agree.

Those are all very valid points, but I think in some cases they help my argument, so I'm going to address them individually, but first I want to list out some assumptions/conditions:

1. Unless Imagineering has mastered manipulation of time, there is some number N that is the maximum amount of people the ride could possibly service under perfect conditions.
2. Conditions will never be perfect so you chop some headroom off that, let's call this C, the rides typical reasonable capacity.
3. Disney wants to get as close to C as possible without going over.
4. Disney generally wants to maintain full control of their environment with room to exercise discretion as needed without having to worry about violating 3.
5. Disney is generally pretty secretive about park operations.

If we don't agree on those 5, I'm not sure we can get anywhere, but I think they're fairly self evident. On to the discussion, I'm going to address the end of your post first for clarity:

I don't know either way sure but I don't necessarily agree with your rationales for why they do in your opinion set aside same-day FPs and that's totally fine that we don't agree.

That's super totally fine! Really I just think it's a fascinating topic, and I enjoy debating it and I appreciate you coming to the table with your insights. I hope I'm not coming across rude to anyone, I'm really just excited to think about the possibilities, it's such a complex system they run every day of the year, there must be some magic behind it. As I said above to @mesaboy2 we'll probably never get concrete answers, but it's fun to speculate and see the different perspectives.

Here's my thought VIP tours are a separate thing than FP availability and don't have a correlation. As in it just doesn't make much sense that Disney treats it the same as FP with slots of time and capacity, etc. With VIP you are escorted to the ride but if you don't want to go on a particular ride Disney isn't going to force you. So let's say no one has an interest in going on Space Mountain well how is Disney going to logistically account for those on the tours and their wants/desires in terms of working within their FP system. They actually promote that they customize it to your desire. You could say "yes we want to go to Space Mountain" in advance and then switch your decision and say "No we don't want to do that"..and they will adjust accordingly on the fly like that. They aren't going to say "well we didn't set aside a slot of time for you for that and that ride already has enough people in the FP line so yeah no".

You are exactly right! This is why Disney must hold back some capacity for all rides, because the only way to deal with this sort of uncertainty is to have excess resources available to address whatever happens. A common theme in logistics is the risk/reward of tying up resources in uncertain events. When organizations consume all their resources on the presumption nothing will change (all their eggs in one basket) it has a high tendency to end badly for them. Disney would want to have available capacity for the rides in the event they need to accommodate these sort of things. They would never want guests complaining that their FP time got bumped by someone else on a VIP tour.

As far as rides going down that it a complete unknown from day to day from year to year (weather patterns adjusting, crowds adjusting, etc) how do they account for that? In a nutshell too many unknowns to even simply figure out how many you would even set aside. Sometimes with too many factors you take the easier route of just not accounting for them rather than try to calculate all the possibilities and account for them.

Again, completely and totally correct! This also falls under the purview of needing room for adjustment, that really is the universal theme here (no pun intended). With the amount of data and engineering they have available, they actually can predict within reason the failures and crowds and weather, but not perfectly. Sometimes things just go completely sideways. The only way to deal with that is reserved resources that can be called in, which you can't do if you already promised them to someone else months earlier.

Artifical scarcity..I get your line of thinking but really that makes little sense when you actually see it in practice.

I can't cite specific data (because Disney doesn't publish ride demand vs capacity data unfortunately, I'd nerd all over that) so this one is just a hunch, but artificial scarcity is an effective and commonly used tool. I'd be surprised if they weren't employing it here.

Fun talk,
Matt

 

[AquaDame]

It appears like more evening fast passes have been added for FOP between about Sept 5 to Sept 8. I did not check every day but the 5th and 8th showed up.

Im seeing it for the 2nd as well - 7:50pm & 8:20pm at least!

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Those are all very valid points, but I think in some cases they help my argument, so I'm going to address them individually, but first I want to list out some assumptions/conditions:

1. Unless Imagineering has mastered manipulation of time, there is some number N that is the maximum amount of people the ride could possibly service under perfect conditions.
2. Conditions will never be perfect so you chop some headroom off that, let's call this C, the rides typical reasonable capacity.
3. Disney wants to get as close to C as possible without going over.
4. Disney generally wants to maintain full control of their environment with room to exercise discretion as needed without having to worry about violating 3.
5. Disney is generally pretty secretive about park operations.

If we don't agree on those 5, I'm not sure we can get anywhere, but I think they're fairly self evident. On to the discussion, I'm going to address the end of your post first for clarity:



That's super totally fine! Really I just think it's a fascinating topic, and I enjoy debating it and I appreciate you coming to the table with your insights. I hope I'm not coming across rude to anyone, I'm really just excited to think about the possibilities, it's such a complex system they run every day of the year, there must be some magic behind it. As I said above to @mesaboy2 we'll probably never get concrete answers, but it's fun to speculate and see the different perspectives.



You are exactly right! This is why Disney must hold back some capacity for all rides, because the only way to deal with this sort of uncertainty is to have excess resources available to address whatever happens. A common theme in logistics is the risk/reward of tying up resources in uncertain events. When organizations consume all their resources on the presumption nothing will change (all their eggs in one basket) it has a high tendency to end badly for them. Disney would want to have available capacity for the rides in the event they need to accommodate these sort of things. They would never want guests complaining that their FP time got bumped by someone else on a VIP tour.



Again, completely and totally correct! This also falls under the purview of needing room for adjustment, that really is the universal theme here (no pun intended). With the amount of data and engineering they have available, they actually can predict within reason the failures and crowds and weather, but not perfectly. Sometimes things just go completely sideways. The only way to deal with that is reserved resources that can be called in, which you can't do if you already promised them to someone else months earlier.



I can't cite specific data (because Disney doesn't publish ride demand vs capacity data unfortunately, I'd nerd all over that) so this one is just a hunch, but artificial scarcity is an effective and commonly used tool. I'd be surprised if they weren't employing it here.

Fun talk,
Matt

With all due respect though I think you think my comments bolster your opinion because you're still thinking the way you are sorta like a type of logical fallacy;if that makes sense (though I'm not trying to be mean or anything when I say that so please don't take it that way).

FWIW I don't think you're coming across rude-we're just discussing here

 

[anomamatt]

Yes they don't need FP in the sense that it isn't booked and scanned, but it's still a slot in the FP capacity queue for the day that was held back to be available to them. There is some number of people the ride can handle a day under perfect conditions, if they issue that many FPs, there is no time for things like VIPs. It's all in the balancing act.

Why would they hold back FPs for VIP tours? You pick your itinerary (and change it) on the fly... Those tours are not pre-scheduled. We literally tell our guide at the park what we want to do next and he just shows his card to the FP person. And sometimes we do a ride over and over... It would be a huge waste (of possible FPs) for the 90+% of rides that wouldn't be ridden...

 

[anomamatt]

This is why Disney must hold back some capacity for all rides, because the only way to deal with this sort of uncertainty is to have excess resources available to address whatever happens.

Holding back capacity is VERY different from holding back FPs. Have you done much day-of looking at FPs? In general, times do not magically appear at 7am the day of... I spend a LOT of time looking for day of FPs when in the parks... it's not like all the sudden new FPs are available. When new, day of FPs do occur, they are very random (as in, someone dropped them).

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

Holding back capacity is VERY different from holding back FPs. Have you done much day-of looking at FPs? In general, times do not magically appear at 7am the day of... I spend a LOT of time looking for day of FPs when in the parks... it's not like all the sudden new FPs are available. When new, day of FPs do occur, they are very random (as in, someone dropped them).

I've seen it be said that when looking for SDFP keep refreshing and sometimes options will pop up. I honestly don't think Disney sprinkles in FPs in 30second increments (exaggeration there but still).

It's much more likely that someone has just adjusted their FP window, modified what ride/attraction/show their FP was for or that someone has actually cancelled their FP entirely (versus modifying for a window of time or for a different ride/attraction). Those would allow for a FP window to suddenly appear same day that wasn't there before.

 

[mesaboy2]

Holding back capacity is VERY different from holding back FPs. Have you done much day-of looking at FPs? In general, times do not magically appear at 7am the day of... I spend a LOT of time looking for day of FPs when in the parks... it's not like all the sudden new FPs are available. When new, day of FPs do occur, they are very random (as in, someone dropped them).

Exactly my observations after watching this system for years, hence my conclusion. The practical response to anyone asking if FPs are held back for day-of use is "no".

 

[bobbiwoz]

At 60 days out there were no FOP FPs for August 24,25,26. I kept checking, and more recently, the Safari FPs were gone!

I was told here to keep checking, and sure enough, today I got FOP FPs for the 24, and 25, the two nights I know for sure I would be there!

 

[Darcy03231]

There was nothing available on my 60 day window and I've been checking several times a day. I was able to pick up two fast-passes for FOP on the evening of 8/27 late last night. There was nothing available for the 28th (we're only there for 2 days).

 

[JerseyJanice]

My FP window opened today, and I got the day and time I wanted for our FOP FPs.

 

[hp_lovecraft]

At 60 days out there were no FOP FPs for August 24,25,26. I kept checking, and more recently, the Safari FPs were gone!

Oddly, we had no trouble booking FOP FPs for those same dates, 60 days out for a party of 8. I've always wondered if the FPs are released in chunks to thwart the 7am blitz.

The only thing we couldnt get was an ADR for Bon Voyage.... until about 10 days later when a spot opened up. Does that mean that a party of 8+ cancelled?
ADRs with large groups is a bit of a pain anyway, since you are usually waiting for the "large table" to empty, so the smaller groups behind you will pass you.

I think the longest we have waited was 60 minutes.

 

[Mrs Grumpy]

There were two evening ones (around 8:30) that showed up earlier today for 8/28. Still looking for one for earlier in the day for 8/28. Didn't have any luck at 60 days out either. Been checking several times a day.

 

[KittyKitty]

This is just a perfect example of why the old FP system was superior. The current system is an absolute joke. I started a thread a month ago about why Disneyland has won my business going forward.

Hate to break it to you but...........

http://www.abc15.com/entertainment/...their-fastpasses-through-an-app-at-disneyland