I am also looking at getting my first AMEX card, either the Hilton Surpass - 150K points + $150 credit after 2K spend in 3 months, $95 AF OR the Rose Gold.
Which is more valuable, 60K MR or 150K Hilton points?
60k MR.
MR regularly transfers to Hilton 1:2, or 1,000 MR to 2,000 Hilton Honors Points.
However, Amex frequently runs (sometimes targeted) 40%-50% transfer bonuses from MR to Hilton when MR transfers to Hilton points at 1:2.8 to 1:3. So, 60k MR will transfer to 168k or 180k.
See:
https://www.doctorofcredit.com/american-express-transfer-bonus-40-to-hilton-honors-12-8-2/
https://www.doctorofcredit.com/american-express-transfer-bonus-40-to-hilton-honors-12-8/
https://www.doctorofcredit.com/american-express-transfer-bonus-20-30-to-hilton-honors-12-4-2-6/
Note there are targeted offers of 75k MR for the Amex Gold card right now. You can try pulling up links to the Gold in different browsers, in incognito mode, behind VPNs in different geolocations, etc. (Remember to use a DIS support link if the offers are the same as what you'd get using another link.)
The Amex Gold card is also a better "supportal" card.
An MR-earning card like the Gold can "support" another person -- say, P2 -- to
their choice of almost any Amex MR-earning card and co-branded cards. A Hilton card can only "support" someone to another Hilton co-branded card.
The Gold card also usually has the biggest "supportal" bonus among Amex's portfolio of cards when you "support" someone to their own card. The "supportal" bonus on the Gold is often 30k MR, and some are targeted with 35k MR "supportal" bonuses. This means when you "support" someone to their own Amex MR card or a co-branded card like the Hiltons, you could earn 30k MR, and your "supportee" can earn their own SUB. Amex caps the "supportal" bonus you can earn on each MR card to 55k MR/year, so that means you could use your Gold card towards 2 "supportals" worth 30k MR and then 25k MR. Beware Amex will send you a 1099-MISC for the value of the "supportals" where 1 MR equals 1 cent. However, netting ~75% of something is better than 100% of nothing.
Now, the Surpass is a great card in the sense that a Free Night Certificate (good at any Hilton worldwide -- even an overwater bungalow in the Maldives if that floats your boat) is attainable with $15k of spend in a calendar year. Definitely a card you'll want to be "supported" to in the future.