Just posting some more thoughts on the business side of this...I'll try to break them down by points on why it doesn't really make sense to me.
-Last fiscal year, Disney World and
Disneyland combined saw a 3% increase in attendance. However, during Q3 of the fiscal year, Disney World's guest attendance fell flat, meaning it did not experience an increase or decrease. In Q4, they experienced a 4% decrease in attendance.
-Companies that see this kind of trend will typically take action in the next fiscal year to fix the quarter that suffered the previous year. They have been doing this with Q3 and
part of Q4 with the discounts we've been seeing available through August 14th. It was reported in July 2009 that it was the discounts that were helping the attendance rates, which is why it makes sense that we're seeing offers this year that were not available during the same timeframe last year. It would not make sense to increase discounts when there was no change in attendance during a particular quarter, but then reduce/radically change discounts during a time when the previous year saw a drop. Their goal is to make money, which means it's important for them to find ways to keep guests coming in. And if the members here are any indication, potential decent discounts are what's keeping them from canceling their trips. Even if FD isn't offered, a financially comparable discount keeps those potential cancellations away.
-Businesses that make drastic changes during Q4 that do not swing in favor of the customer typically have bad results. That is why most companies begin big changes in Q1 and see if it's a trend that should continue throughout the rest of the fiscal year. Q1 begins in later 2010, which would line up with Iger's statement of scaling back discounts in later 2010. Now this previous statement is pure speculation...the rest is just how a typical business works. Most companies are looking for ways to entice a customer to come and spend so they can earn that "last chance" revenue for that fiscal year...not the opposite.
Anyway, these are just my thoughts on it. I do not stand firm that FD WILL come out, I believe it's very possible that it
won't. I also believe that even if it doesn't come out, something at least comparable
will...and to remember not to freak out if FD doesn't release over the next few days...because that doesn't mean it won't release later in the month (as that has happened before) or even later than that (as the first year nothing happened until June). FD or no FD, they need to focus on increasing guest attendance for Q4, and that would mean focusing on some incentive to lure a guest in.
Some people may already be locked into their vacations due to work or airline booking.
more than likely a buy 4 nights (@ rack) & get 2 free type...mostly to keep guests onsite away from Universal & a possible split stay to see HP.
I have a feeling Universal will be more expensive for us than Disney though, even without free dining. I do have my TA looking into it now. But I love Disney so much, I am hoping it is more expensive at Universal. LOL
