FREE DINING UPDATE- RUMOR and SPECULATION / Update Page 80 !

[CanadianGuy]

Ok ... the drums are beating loud here on the boards for this year's fall promotion/free dining offer.

As a moderator.. you hear things. You hear LOTS of things. Some of them turn out to be true and some of them do not.

In the case of F/D 2010, the rumors have been all over the spectrum. After a few weeks tho, a few things tend to bubble up and sound more plausible than others.

I've heard two completely different stories over and over in slightly different forms .. and here's what they are at this point.. and I've only reported things I've heard from multiple sources with commonalities in the details.

I have put on my flame retardant suit and I'm protected behind this brick wall here so .. flame away if you must but this is what I'm hearing.

OPTION # 1. - The Nightmare Scenario

One thing I've been hearing pretty consistently is a new promotion will be announced in the next week. It will NOT be free dining. There is no agreement in the rumors to exactly what it will be. It could be released as early as April 8th.

Part of what I'm hearing here is that Disney is still very concerned about the April - May - June timeframe.. what is called "Third Quarter" in their business terms. Bookings for Q3 aren't as strong as they'd like and this promotion may address parts of Q3 and Q4 potentially..

Q4 (July to September) is the final quarter of the business year for them to book the necessary revenue to hit the targets they've hoped for .. to meet the expectations of Wall Street financiers and analysts. They have not yet begun in earnest to examine the options for the 1st Quarter of what will be their new business year (October to December).

This "new promotion" may include *some dates* that traditionally fall in the free dining period (September). It will be offered for a limited time (perhaps as short as 30 days or less) ...

And the outcome of THAT offer, will potentially help Disney decide whether or not to offer Free Dining for Sept/October dates. And THAT free dining offer, if it were to come for those fall dates, would not be released until early-mid May.

ALL of this -apparently comes from the top- and is apparently a consideration as Disney looks to wean folks off the plethora of discounts they've offered the past few years in blatant attempts to get people to the parks and spending $$$. Of course that dovetails nicely with public statements made by Iger about reducing discounts... a little 'too nicely' if you take my meaning.. so take it ALL for what you will.

The short and sweet summary of the "Nightmare Scenario" is this:

F/D won't be the 'next' promotion but that it may be offered 'later in the calendar year' for a smaller travel window or it may not be offered at all for the traditional fall dates..

OR MAY be offered in December.. (again for fewer dates)

OR not at all in 2010.

So.. if you're holding off waiting for a F/D promo - you may wish to book something during this next offer so you secure some discount. Unless you refuse to go without F/D -- in which case.. don't book.

I will say this - as of yesterday - there was definitely a non-FD promo coming very soon that probably won't be what very many folks were hoping for. Of course that can (and often does) change in a heartbeat).

OPTION # 2. The Magical Dream Scenario

On the other side of the rumor mill (it's a very big mill) .. I'm hearing the usual thing. The offer will be released to Disney Visa folks tomorrow or Friday and to the public on Monday. The dates will pretty much fall into line with previous years with the exception of the end dates may be a bit shorter than before.

Under THIS rumor, QS dining will be offered at the values and 'basic' dining at the mods and deluxes. There *may* be new restrictions which require 'length of stay tickets' vs. just 'minimum of one day tickets' for each guest on the reservation.

------

My Take On It All

I'm a gut man. I trust my gut instincts. Pretty deeply and intuitively. And my gut tells me that even if F/D is offered sometime in 2010, it probably won't be for the usual dates and it will probably have new restrictions.

Do I hope I'm dead wrong about scenario #1 - Oh YES. I have no intentions of traveling then but I know many of you do and I would hate to see your hopes dashed on this.

I do however strongly encourage folks to at least consider the possibility and look at the alternatives in case F/D is not offered in the usual timeframe or methods as years past.

And in any case, if scenario 2 is true.. we'll have some indication by Friday.. just 48 hours. And if scenario 1 is true, we'll know with absolute certainty by Monday.

I really stewed back and forth about posting this. But ultimately, I think it's fair to present what I know to the board and hope that it's helpful to at least some folks in the long run.

And as I said, won't be long now before we know either way.

Thanks and please don't panic. It's just a vacation.

Knox

 

[5boyz]

Thanks Knox!!!!! Great job!!!!

 

[leahjade]

I'm afraid free dining will be offered but only with counter service then it's off to a cruise (not Disney) for our vacation this year!

 

[DznyDreams]

Wow! Thanks, Knox, for going out on a limb like that!

I hope those who are are really depending on FD get it. I would love to have it, but don't have to have it in order to take my currently-booked Sept/Oct trip. Any promo will do for me, and seeing as I already received a PIN, I'm good. That said, I'm not above applying a better deal to my reservation if it comes available.

 

[RainbowWit]

Appreciate the insight Knox!! Right now it's the waiting game.

 

[JollyHoliday]

Thanks for posting CanadianGuy !

 

[Blessed_wth_Triplets]

Thanks for the info...very much appreciated! Sad for us though, because if FD doesn't come out DH is saying we need to cancel...just can't afford it at the price our trip is currently priced out at (8/20 - 9/4 with NO discounts). So I have a question...if FD doesn't come out, are there any promotions/discounts I could use during that time frame? Thanks!!

 

[CanadianGuy]

Thanks for the info...very much appreciated! Sad for us though, because if FD doesn't come out DH is saying we need to cancel...just can't afford it at the price our trip is currently priced out at (8/20 - 9/4 with NO discounts). So I have a question...if FD doesn't come out, are there any promotions/discounts I could use during that time frame? Thanks!!

Again - watch for whatever is released between now and Monday..

I've been TOLD *something* is coming but I haven't heard exactly what except to say "it ain't free dining"..

And I feel I should add here, Disney is not above spreading misinformation to mislead competitors.. so.. I could VERY WELL be wrong on this.

But I wanted to share what I knew with all the appropriate caveots.

K

 

[francie57]

To the pp, if there is no free dining you may end up with a room discount promo that would help you. Are you a AAA member - if you are or someone you know is, they have room discounts basically all year, with a few holiday blackouts. We book our trips each year with their discount and save quite a bit.

 

[jomommy]

Thanks for the info...very much appreciated! Sad for us though, because if FD doesn't come out DH is saying we need to cancel...just can't afford it at the price our trip is currently priced out at (8/20 - 9/4 with NO discounts). So I have a question...if FD doesn't come out, are there any promotions/discounts I could use during that time frame? Thanks!!

What about just taking a shorter trip? Less money upfront and less days to need to pay for dining and extras in the park. It would trim a lot off.

We'll still go, but we might go for only 5 or 6 days. Also, we'll only do 1 or 2 TS meals that we really WANT to do. Saving money not only on food, but from all the tips. We had to pay out a few hundred dollars in tips last time, there's 7 in our party, so it's an automatic 18% for us. That's a lot of money. We could eat a few days of CS for that alone. We're staying in a family suite and I was actually hoping for the QSDP anyway, suites us better. But if no free dining, hopefully they'll be a discount or gift card or something to help us off set our cost.

 

[kteesmumma]

Thanks for the heads up...we arent booked for the usual FD timeframe, we are booked for November...so we have a ways to go before we hear anything about later in the years promotions...id be interested to hear what the new promotion may be if thats the case...

 

[tonyolily]

Thanks for the insight!!

 

[Sugar Jones]

Since I'm new here I'm gonna say I appreciate your posting this and your honesty. I'm not going to lie and say I'm not hoping for some sort of discount, but in all honesty I wouldn't even know about the discounts if it wasn't for this board. And for that alone I am thankful!

We are going in September regardless of any discount offer, and we are very excited!!!


I admit though, checking on here and getting all the rumours and gossip about discounts is kinda fun and addicting

 

[Dancegrl624]

Thanks for the update! Even if FD isn't offered, we'll still be going this Sept (everything is booked). We got such a great deal on our airfare that it won't matter if we have to pay for dining or not. Don't get me wrong....I'd still LOVE FD, but it won't make or break our trip.

 

[TheRatPack]

Just a vacation......what.....say that when you homeschool 5 kids and didn't get to go on your vacation last year LOL It's not 'just a vacation'...it's my sanity LOL

That being said....if they don't offer free dining, no biggie. We'll stay off site like we did in the past and visit Universal and the other Orlando attractions....then head off to the beach for the remainder of our week. It'll mean less money for us in many ways, food, lodging, tickets and the kennel too, since when we stay off site we get to take our little doggies along

<gasp> thinking back to the days when we'd plan to visit only 2 Disney parks and we were overjoyed with that....boy have we become spoiled with staying on site and eating like kings LOL I guess that is what they are hoping for though....that enough people will be so used to it now that they'll just bite the bullet and pay the extra to stay on site with dining....sadly just not something we feel comfortable doing without some sort of discount. For the money we'd spend on rack rate rooms and food, we could do a lot more for vacation....maybe even go twice a year depending on where we went.

Oh well...maybe the new discount will still be nice....just not free food. We'll just have to wait and see. Thanks for the insight.

 

[n2mm]

Thanks for posting this info. I know that the disboards does not generally post "rumors" or things that have not been made official. I appreciate you posting the strong indications you are receiving from reliable sources. I also hope folks on the boards heed your advice and not shut themselves out of the discount loop in the hopes for something that may not appear. I'm sure there are folks that will be challenging your post, even though you are a representative of these boards! Personally, this makes me happy since I'm one of the ones who booked the BB FD last October during a DVC trip and noticed the promotion was still being offered. Glad I did, and am hoping to make my ADRs tomorrow without the competition of FD to the GP.

 

[mking624]

With free dining promos having not been released until a little bit further into April in the past, having no announcement tomorrow or by Monday shouldn't necessarily freak anyone out. I think last year's earlier release date is aiding in this year's panic.

While I understand that the 4th quarter is always a concern for any business, Disney also experienced a decline in attendance last year. It seems they'd want to be a little careful in just how much they scale back their promos. Declining attendance plus radically changing discounts does not exactly equal better stats for them. Also, there are discounts being offered during a time they normally don't have problems with guest attendance. We're seeing free QSDP through August 14th, which hasn't happened before. Guests are also getting some nice room only discounts. Part of those summer months falls into the 4th quarter category, which would make me wonder why they would offer such things if it was THAT big of a concern. It would seem to me they'd be more apt to lure people in during a lower attendance time (and therefore lower revenue) while being more careful with discount offers during a much higher attendance and revenue time period. Also, don't forget that bouncebacks are in place for FD, and the UK has been offered it as well...something consistent with past years.

Of course, this is all my speculation on it. I've never said the FD WILL come out. I do think there's a possibility it won't. I do think that if their 4th quarter is so much of a concern that they would drop it, they've made some really dumb moves with summer offers and by offering FD during the typical time frame to other guests.

 

[CanadianGuy]

... I'm sure there are folks that will be challenging your post, even though you are a representative of these boards!..

I wish to strongly reiterate that being a mod means nothing in this case. This is not a matter of managing the boards or welcoming and creating a positive atmosphere for posters.

It's simply some information that has been brought to my attention a bunch of times on the boards and off..

I expect to be challenged and I sure hope that the part I'm right about is # 2 and not # 1. (Sounds like potty training days..)

Regardless, I really don't mind being challenged on this. I don't.

In fact, I hope that I'm wrong about the "nightmare" scenario. I sincerely do.

And I won't lie, part of that is that I don't want to mod the boards in the 'aftermath'..

 

[CanadianGuy]

With free dining promos having not been released until a little bit further into April in the past, having no announcement tomorrow or by Monday shouldn't necessarily freak anyone out. I think last year's earlier release date is aiding in this year's panic.

While I understand that the 4th quarter is always a concern for any business, Disney also experienced a decline in attendance last year. It seems they'd want to be a little careful in just how much they scale back their promos. Declining attendance plus radically changing discounts does not exactly equal better stats for them. Also, there are discounts being offered during a time they normally don't have problems with guest attendance. We're seeing free QSDP through August 14th, which hasn't happened before. Guests are also getting some nice room only discounts. Part of those summer months falls into the 4th quarter category, which would make me wonder why they would offer such things if it was THAT big of a concern. It would seem to me they'd be more apt to lure people in during a lower attendance time (and therefore lower revenue) while being more careful with discount offers during a much higher attendance and revenue time period. Also, don't forget that bouncebacks are in place for FD, and the UK has been offered it as well...something consistent with past years.

Of course, this is all my speculation on it. I've never said the FD WILL come out. I do think there's a possibility it won't. I do think that if their 4th quarter is so much of a concern that they would drop it, they've made some really dumb moves with summer offers and by offering FD during the typical time frame to other guests.

Excellent points all.. and you made me think of something else - what *if* whatever is offered isn't 'free dining' -- but still works out to be a really good deal?

I hadn't even considered the possibility that a new offer could meet or exceed the excitement of F/D. I can't even imagine what that might be...

What do you all think? What realistic offer .. could beat F/D?

 

[Trep72]

Thanks for sharing!!!