2024 runDisney Marathon Weekend Weekend Sell-out Game
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Those who read my training journal know I like to play games when my races come up to make them more interesting. So I thought, let's see if anyone's interested in a game revolving around the Marathon Weekend races and their sellouts. Anyone can play, there is no prize for winning, just for fun, and you don't have to play if you don't want to. We had a lot of fun with this in the 2023 Princess thread with
@The Expert coming out as the grand champion. She really is
The Expert!
Rules
-You must predict when the first DIS person will note that a race distance sells out, and it's confirmed by others. If the race reopens at random points at a later time, this doesn't change the initial sell out timing. The sell out time will be from when the race registration officially opens to when the race initially sells out. So if the registration is suppose to open at 10am ET, but actually opens at 11am ET, then the sell out timing will be calculated from 11am ET. I will use the moment of officially opening as defined by the first DIS person noting they have an estimated wait time listed in their queue.
-You must predict all six events (5k, 10k, HM, M, Goofy, and Dopey).
-I'll set the upper limit on the predictions at one week (168 hours). So if you think something is going to take 2 months to sell out, then you put ">168 hours" as your guess. You can put two months if you want, but for the purpose of scoring anyone over 168 hours will be counted as equal. I'm doing this so that the conclusion of the game will happen on 4/18/23 and we're not all waiting to see when exactly something sells out for someone to win. Ultimately we're more concerned with how quickly things are going to sell out then the longevity of the game.
-You must make your prediction by Monday, April 10th at 11:59pm ET.
Scoring
-Players will be ranked by their guess away from the actual time. No price is right rules. So you can be over or under. A person that is 30 min under on time and 30 min over on time are equal in the ranking.
For example, five people individually guess 60 min, 100 min, 140 min, 150 min, and 48 hours for 5k sell out time. The actual time ends up being 120 min. Player B and C (100 min and 140 min) tie for 1st. Player D (150 min) is 30 min away and gets 3rd. Player A (60 min) is 60 min away and gets 4th. Player E (48 hours) is 46 hours away and gets 5th.
Your place in each of the five events is tallied up to create a final game score. The person with the lowest final game score wins. For example, Player C gets 1st in their 5k, 10th in the 10k, 6th in the HM, 5th in the Challenge, and 8th in Yoga. Their combined final score is 30 (1+10+6+5+8). If 30 is the lowest combined final game score of all players, then Player C wins.
Past Data
Historical Race Weekend Sell Out Timing (you can find all weekend data here if you want to see some recent sellouts)
Marathon Weekend
2023
Start (
link)
Delayed Registration Timing until 12:30pm ET (
link)
5k sold out in 24 min (
link)
10k sold out in 34 min (
link)
No more queue after 34 min (
link)
Dopey sold out in 38 min (
link)
Goofy sold out in 43 min (
link)
HM sold out in 55 min (
link)
M sold out in 67 min (
link)
2022
Start (
link)
Opening queues stating wait of 8 min to over an hour (
link); Timing does not appear until exact time of registration opening
No more queue after 21 min (
link)
5k sold out in 45 min (
link)
HM sold out in 86 min (
link)
10k sold out in 5 hours (
link)
Goofy sold out in 2.5 days (
link)
Dopey/M sold out on 10/12 (
link)
*All races periodically reopened.
2021 (Presumed reduced availability)
Start (
link)
Goofy sold out in 19 min (
link)
Dopey sold out in 26 min (
link)
5k sold out in 26 min (
link)
10k sold out in 31 min (
link)
HM sold out in 31 min (
link)
M sold out in 89 min (
link)
2020
Start (
link)
5k sold out in ~20 min (
link)
10k sold out in 93 min (
link)
Goofy sold out in Oct 2019 when registration was April 2019 (
link)
HM sold out in Oct 2019 when registration was April 2019 (
link)
Marathon sold out in Oct 2019 when registration was April 2019 (link) *Can't find a specific post for this one.
Dopey sold out in Nov 2019 when registration was April 2019 (
link)
***A few of the races opened momentarily between April and October (like 5k in August). Likely because they were breaking up unsold challenge bibs.
2019
Start (
link)
5k sold out in 8 hours (
link)
10k sold out in 21 hours (
link)
HM, M, Goofy and Dopey were essentially open until the end.
***A few times the 5k and 10k reappeared as they were presumably breaking up unsold Goofy/Dopey bibs.
2018
Start (Feb) (
link)
5k sold out in 4.5 hrs (
link)
10k sold out in 2.25 days (
link)
Dopey sold out in 2.5 days (
link)
HM sold out in May (
link)
M sold out in November (
link)
No information found on Goofy selling out
2017
Start (April) (
link)
5k sold out in 90 min (
link)
10k sold out in 93 min (
link)
HM sold out in 25 hrs (
link)
Dopey sold out in August (
link)
No information found on Goofy or M selling out
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Again, this is for fun, and no one is obligated to play. Just kind of a way to gamify all of your anxiety about registration. If someone finds an error in the game rules, I reserve the right to change them.
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If I don't get in I might run for a charity, or just wait and do the Wine and Dine half in the fall (I can't do Princess weekend next year).
