I don't fault your logic and I don't want to be nit-picky about a small detail when you are trying to make a point. I certainly understand your point of view and from your perspective it seems right.
But, we know Chapek said they had intentionally limited the number of APs they distributed, so we know they have a cap on those. Then, I thought they would re-start new sales when the number of non-renewals reached a critical mass where they could re-open and sell again for a reasonable length of time. But, I have changed my mind on that assumption. To me, the evidence points to creation of a different kind of annual pass program for the future. I have written detailed posts before. (Although the main one with details was in a thread that disappeared.)
To me, the evidence points to a hypothesis that
they are not selling them (the three highest tiers of AP) because they are gradually changing the AP program to a Florida residents only program and it will favor local residents. I think Disney might see the future of the AP program as a program that is of more direct benefit to Disney. They might use it as a space filler. If that is true, it may be their intention to have all new passholders be Florida residents and everyone must spend their first year in the Pixie pass tier. Disney World is very different from
Disneyland Resort. It is a world class destination resort. If Disney is converting to say 10% or 15% of the crowd are passholders, they are reducing crowding. By only selling Pixies to Florida residents, eventually the program will be just a small local program. It appears probable then that new sales of the top three tiers will remain unavailable indefinitely.
In other words, the new AP program is right there before your eyes for everyone to see. When someone does not renew, they are constantly selling new Pixie passes to take its place. There are over 8,000 people moving to Florida every week. Some of them are buying Pixies when others do not renew any other tier of passes.
I do not say this to shade things in my direction. (Because we are considering moving away from here.) But because I think the evidence could reasonably be interpreted that way.