Inventory This High?

[naman1221]

Curious, what are some of those advantages, & do they seem to be worth $50/pp ?


Definitely, which is why the restrictions are baffling, to me they just hurt DVC value overall.

Not OP but for my wife and I, we bought direct at Riviera in January (200 pts). Two major reasons!

1. We are in our late-20s - so 2042 resorts getting removed in 19 years means a lot more to us than perhaps someone in their late 60s. It also means there is a good chance that there will be more than a few new resorts by the time we are done. Unrestricted points is a big big deal for that.

2. Discounts/Benefits - not really a deciding factor but in my opinion, its a nice to have. i think you would be hard-pressed to see all the discounts disappear and of course, you spend a TON to truly break even. But my wife and I are going to try a moonlight magic at HS and have already done one at Epcot this year. That is close to 800 in value.

You are paying for piece of mind that you aren't getting screwed out of something in the future. Not having to deal with the 60-90 day process of resale also has value.

 

[Brian Noble]

Low resale will pull off a fair number of buyers that otherwise would have purchased direct.

At the margin? Sure. But that margin seems to be more or less inconsequential compared to the overall sales engine. After all, plenty of timeshare developers sell full-freight timeshares in the low-to-mid five figures all the time, despite the fact that resales in those systems are worth a quarter to pennies on the dollar.

A robust and high-priced resale market is not required to sell timeshares.

In fact, it's probably less important that resales be expensive than it is that resales be "inferior products." That's based on watching the players in the market. Nearly every timeshare developer devalues at least some of their products on resale, though some devalue more than others. Over time, developers have added distinguishing features, not removed them--and those distinguishing features tend to devalue resales. Developers are intentionally lowering the value of the resale market in order to distinguish resales from developer purchases.

Either all of those developers are wrong, or that's the more profitable strategy.

to me they just hurt DVC value overall.

Hurts the value for whom? There are three parties to this: Disney, someone who buys from Disney, and someone who buys on the secondary market.

The secondary buyer definitely gets less, because the points can't be used everywhere. That tends to depress resale prices compared to a universe in which resale points were not restricted, and that reduces the value for the direct buyer. But, as I argue above, this is increasing the value for Disney--because it's the same thing all of the other developers are also doing, and all of them make decisions based on their own profits.

So, the value is decreased for two of the parties, but not the third. Guess which one matters to Disney?

 

[Ruttangel]

Not OP but for my wife and I, we bought direct at Riviera in January (200 pts). Two major reasons!

1. We are in our late-20s - so 2042 resorts getting removed in 19 years means a lot more to us than perhaps someone in their late 60s. It also means there is a good chance that there will be more than a few new resorts by the time we are done. Unrestricted points is a big big deal for that.

2. Discounts/Benefits - not really a deciding factor but in my opinion, its a nice to have. i think you would be hard-pressed to see all the discounts disappear and of course, you spend a TON to truly break even. But my wife and I are going to try a moonlight magic at HS and have already done one at Epcot this year. That is close to 800 in value.

You are paying for piece of mind that you aren't getting screwed out of something in the future. Not having to deal with the 60-90 day process of resale also has value.

Unrestricted points are not really important right now and are not important at all when it comes to someone buying resale at a resort they want to stay at.
Even up to 2054 you will 3 very large resorts available to book in AKV,SSR and OKW and any new resorts coming along you are not barred from staying at them it just means you have to rent or transfer points in and rent or transfer yours out. Brokers are already helping facilitate that.
I just cant see direct being worth it v resale.
Moonlight Magic can just disappear again as can any perk, they are just small value incidentals when compared to $70pp savings on a resale contract.

 

[Brian Noble]

Curious, what are some of those advantages, & do they seem to be worth $50/pp ?

I think this is worth a separate post--in part because i tend to focus on the "worth" of all of these things. But here I'm going to do exactly the opposite.

There's a guy on TUG who used to sell timeshares on Key West. He had a very interesting strategy. By his own admission, he was not a very good sales agent. He bought one of those weeks himself, and used it to take vacations. He just told the people he was touring what he personally did--no embellishments, no grandiose pictures that were technically possible but unlikely, none of the usual timeshare sales flimflam.

One thing he didn't do was spend a lot of time on the financial savings of it, even though it was probably there. Reading between the lines, my sense is that math was not his favorite subject in school. Instead, he just laid it out: You have the money to buy this, and if you buy it, you get to come back every year with much lower ongoing costs. Or, you can spend market rates renting every year, and probably skip some years. You pick.

When faced with someone who really wanted to figure out the dollars and cents, he had a very simple answer: "It is a TOY. You are buying a TOY. Treat it like a TOY."

The advantage to buying direct is that you never have to encounter "Oh, I can't do that" later. You want to use your points for Riviera? Fine. Same for any resort Disney ever builds. You want to use them for a cruise? Great! No problem! That's a bad use of points? Who cares! You want to go to the Member Lounge? Sure. Here's a magnet, for free! You belong, you are eligible for everything any Member can have.

Is that the cheapest way of staying in DVC? Probably not. So what? Money is for spending, after all. And, as another good friend puts it: I want to spend every last dime before I die, so that the tears at my funeral are real.

 

[naman1221]

Unrestricted points are not really important right now and are not important at all when it comes to someone buying resale at a resort they want to stay at.
Even up to 2054 you will 3 very large resorts available to book in AKV,SSR and OKW and any new resorts coming along you are not barred from staying at them it just means you have to rent or transfer points in and rent or transfer yours out. Brokers are already helping facilitate that.
I just cant see direct being worth it v resale.
Moonlight Magic can just disappear again as can any perk, they are just small value incidentals when compared to $70pp savings on a resale contract.

It might not matter to you specifically - but given that i have 47 years left on the contract I just bought, i find it hard to imagine it won't matter in 10 years. I understand the whole "buy where you want to stay" but to me, one of the best aspects of DVC is that there is availability to stay at all the resorts and the process is super painless to book another at 7 months. If you are one of the people who is happy staying at BCV every single trip for the remaining 19 years, power to you!

Riviera is my favorite resort and personally, I am a fan of the stylistic choices that Disney is making (modern and minimal). I love VDH and i know it isn't officially confirmed but I would be absolutely shocked if I can stay there with my restricted points. Poly is an unknown sure but I will be really bummed if I can't stay in the new 1 BRs they are making because I had a resale. It just depends on what you value.

And of course the perks can disappear at any time, and they were not a major component of my decision. What I feel relatively confident about is that there will always be SOME form of perks available - they are probably not always going to be amazing but that is okay.

 

[Ruttangel]

The advantage to buying direct is that you never have to encounter "Oh, I can't do that" later. You want to use your points for Riviera? Fine. Same for any resort Disney ever builds. You want to use them for a cruise? Great! No problem! That's a bad use of points? Who cares! You want to go to the Member Lounge? Sure. Here's a magnet, for free! You belong, you are eligible for everything any Member can have.

On the flip side of that, none of those things are tangible enough to make a difference to some.
I’d rather keep the difference in money and put it towards other things that make me happy.

 

[Chili327]

I dont want to quote everyone, but some great points on both sides.
I guess maybe since I'm new to this, my only real concern is saving money and only worried about the next 10 years or so.

 

[Ruttangel]

It might not matter to you specifically - but given that i have 47 years left on the contract I just bought, i find it hard to imagine it won't matter in 10 years. I understand the whole "buy where you want to stay" but to me, one of the best aspects of DVC is that there is availability to stay at all the resorts and the process is super painless to book another at 7 months. If you are one of the people who is happy staying at BCV every single trip for the remaining 19 years, power to you!

Riviera is my favorite resort and personally, I am a fan of the stylistic choices that Disney is making (modern and minimal). I love VDH and i know it isn't officially confirmed but I would be absolutely shocked if I can stay there with my restricted points. Poly is an unknown sure but I will be really bummed if I can't stay in the new 1 BRs they are making because I had a resale. It just depends on what you value.

And of course the perks can disappear at any time, and they were not a major component of my decision. What I feel relatively confident about is that there will always be SOME form of perks available - they are probably not always going to be amazing but that is okay.

Exactly, I think we are both comfortable with decisions but have to admit I was disappointed with RIV but will say Topolinos was great.
as I mentioned, you can always stay anywhere, it doesn’t have to be using your own points.

 

[naman1221]

Exactly, I think we are both comfortable with decisions but have to admit I was disappointed with RIV but will say Topolinos was great.
as I mentioned, you can always stay anywhere, it doesn’t have to be using your own points.

And then there's me - who bought direct and then immediately added on resale as well. got the best of both worlds

 

[Brian Noble]

I’d rather keep the difference in money and put it towards other things that make me happy.

If it's your money, buy the toys you want.

Or to put it another way: There are lots of reasons one might use to justify a DVC purchase. "It's the best financial deal" isn't the only possible one.

 

[tom1944]

I stayed away from direct because I felt the point charts at Riviera and most likely any new resorts would have required more points than I wanted to have.

There are enough resorts that I can stay for as long a period of time we need with much better point charts.

SSR
OKW
BRV
BLT
CCV
AKV- KIDANI
AKV-JAMBO
BWV
BCV

Give us plenty of variation.

 

[disney-inspired]

Is that the cheapest way of staying in DVC? Probably not. So what? Money is for spending, after all. And, as another good friend puts it: I want to spend every last dime before I die, so that the tears at my funeral are real.

I very much agree. I will be responsible up to a point, but I can't take it with me so why not spend it on some fun?

 

[HIRyeDVC]

to me, someone who will hold DVC for many years, direct has the advantage of future resorts. Being a VGF owner, that is possible to be one of the highest or highest points charts in the entire system for a long time. Being able to trade down into other resorts like a new OKW, AKL, has advantages, not to mention BC and BW 2.0 in 2043.

As restrictions increase, I think being able to trade out of your resort will have enhanced value as well compared to today.

You can often get an “additional year” with direct, and don’t have to hunt and hassle to build onto your use year. Early on someone told me start resale and then build out with direct and/or resale. I think that makes sense to me.

I almost view them as two separate products - and price them differently in my mind accordingly.

All of these concerns are valid. But I think the resale market will adjust and evolve to facilitate the trading of points. The board's sponsor is already toying with the idea with the rental store allowing members to trade points for other vacations like Universal. It would be easy for a 3rd party business to facilitate resale members to swap resort points for 11 month advantage without dealing with renting, 1099's, etc. It's coming. So the fear of not being able to exchange your resale points for other resorts could be a little overblown, especially this early in the game.

 

[Sandisw]

All of these concerns are valid. But I think the resale market will adjust and evolve to facilitate the trading of points. The board's sponsor is already toying with the idea with the rental store allowing members to trade points for other vacations like Universal. It would be easy for a 3rd party business to facilitate resale members to swap resort points for 11 month advantage without dealing with renting, 1099's, etc. It's coming. So the fear of not being able to exchange your resale points for other resorts could be a little overblown, especially this early in the game.

Very possible, but no matter what program might become available, it is still going to be a loss of control over the reservation you traded for, not to mention being something that won’t be easily changed or canceled, and for some, at least for me, to have my own points to use where I want is worth whatever extra I am paying for direct ones. YMMV.

 

[Brian Noble]

I think the resale market will adjust and evolve to facilitate the trading of points.

If I were buying resale, I would do so under the assumption that this never happens. If it does, great! More options are good. But I wouldn't condition my sale on the hope that it happens.

In particular, it is not clear to me what the business model will be for anyone who tries to do that. The Board Sponsor is making (at least) $8/pt vigorish on all rentals. They aren't going to suddenly forgo all of that revenue to create a low-cost barter system. Instead, it seems like there will have to be some friction in the process.

 

[bmr1591]

I won't pretend to have read this entire thread, but I know my wife and I considered buying into DVC, but without the opportunity to purchase an annual pass, we can't justify it. If they added that ability in, we'd probably jump on it for 2024.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

If I were buying resale, I would do so under the assumption that this never happens. If it does, great! More options are good. But I wouldn't condition my sale on the hope that it happens.

In particular, it is not clear to me what the business model will be for anyone who tries to do that. The Board Sponsor is making (at least) $8/pt vigorish on all rentals. They aren't going to suddenly forgo all of that revenue to create a low-cost barter system. Instead, it seems like there will have to be some friction in the process.

I dunno I’d gladly create a trading site where I took a nominal fee if there became demand for it in the distant future. I think the cost structure for such a site would be pretty low. I would expect World of DVC to consider something like that as a separate business altogether from their rental business as I don’t see them really competing with each other.

 

[tom1944]

I dunno I’d gladly create a trading site where I took a nominal fee if there became demand for it in the distant future. I think the cost structure for such a site would be pretty low. I would expect World of DVC to consider something like that as a separate business altogether from their rental business as I don’t see them really competing with each other.

If they found it helps them sell resale contracts it becomes worth it

 

[tom1944]

I won't pretend to have read this entire thread, but I know my wife and I considered buying into DVC, but without the opportunity to purchase an annual pass, we can't justify it. If they added that ability in, we'd probably jump on it for 2024.

Annual passes never came into my thoughts. Probably because my plan was one visit a year generally for 7 or 8 days.

I figured we would buy a 5 day pass.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Very possible, but no matter what program might become available, it is still going to be a loss of control over the reservation you traded for, not to mention being something that won’t be easily changed or canceled, and for some, at least for me, to have my own points to use where I want is worth whatever extra I am paying for direct ones. YMMV.

Sure! But I think some people gladly give up some level of control over the reservation, if it meant saving thousands of dollars buying resale. I think the market is fertile for it, especially as we see more restricted resorts coming onto the fold.

If I were buying resale, I would do so under the assumption that this never happens. If it does, great! More options are good. But I wouldn't condition my sale on the hope that it happens.

In particular, it is not clear to me what the business model will be for anyone who tries to do that. The Board Sponsor is making (at least) $8/pt vigorish on all rentals. They aren't going to suddenly forgo all of that revenue to create a low-cost barter system. Instead, it seems like there will have to be some friction in the process.

I was never suggesting that this is what people should expect, prior to buying resale. I'm just pointing out that it's a possibility. Charging a nominal transactional fee might be a decent business model and rely on sheer volume of trades. I don't know. If I had it all figured it out, I probably wouldn't have blasted it over disboards and worked on the project quietly for my own benefit! It's too bad I'm not that ambitious.