Hurricanes and DCL

[Spize]

The strength and location of that high pressure system is going to play a huge role in where this goes ... keeping fingers crossed ...

You're watching the weather channel.

TWC is the E! Channel of weather. All drama and worst case scenario is definitely what is going to happen.

I prefer the data centric sources that don't need doom, gloom, and body counts to get ratings to pay their talent.

If you look at the spaghetti models vs what they were yesterday it's looking more and more like its drifting north, not affecting the Bahamas much but the 9/9 Eastern 7day for the Fantasy... sketchy on a lot of the predictions, could very easily get flipped into a western Caribbean cruise.

The eastern route basically plays chicken with Irma, DCL learned from Sandy and won't play chicken.

9/9 cruise and 9/8 should be good to go, but where they go is what isn't set in stone right now.

Btw, I'd be more worried about the wave that just came off of the African coast delaying your trip home, as well as Castaway Cay. (For 9/9 fantasy cruise)

https://www.cyclocane.com/irma-spaghetti-models/

Given what's up in the Atlantic right now, I wouldn't be shocked in any way if DCL isn't already preparing for 9/9 to become Western. The VI have a 50/50 shot with the current state of the Altantic, problem is there is gong to be 2 storms and the second looks to hit the Virgin Islands the same day at the Fantasy makes port there.

I'm already researching port adventures from past Cozumel/cayman/Jamaica cruises to be prepared.

Btw, if it happens I'll let you know the Rum Point catamaran excursion at Cayman is about the best excursion I've taken.

 

[Spize]

Looking more and more like Irma is going to take that hard hook North. Still not sure what DCL will do, unless it takes the best case scenario turn you'd still have rough seas with the Fantasy routed as planned. Interesting to see how quick of a trigger they have.

 

[jdg345]

You're watching the weather channel.

TWC is the E! Channel of weather. All drama and worst case scenario is definitely what is going to happen.

I prefer the data centric sources that don't need doom, gloom, and body counts to get ratings to pay their talent.

If you look at the spaghetti models vs what they were yesterday it's looking more and more like its drifting north, not affecting the Bahamas much but the 9/9 Eastern 7day for the Fantasy... sketchy on a lot of the predictions, could very easily get flipped into a western Caribbean cruise.

The eastern route basically plays chicken with Irma, DCL learned from Sandy and won't play chicken.

9/9 cruise and 9/8 should be good to go, but where they go is what isn't set in stone right now.

Btw, I'd be more worried about the wave that just came off of the African coast delaying your trip home, as well as Castaway Cay. (For 9/9 fantasy cruise)

https://www.cyclocane.com/irma-spaghetti-models/

Given what's up in the Atlantic right now, I wouldn't be shocked in any way if DCL isn't already preparing for 9/9 to become Western. The VI have a 50/50 shot with the current state of the Altantic, problem is there is gong to be 2 storms and the second looks to hit the Virgin Islands the same day at the Fantasy makes port there.

I'm already researching port adventures from past Cozumel/cayman/Jamaica cruises to be prepared.

Btw, if it happens I'll let you know the Rum Point catamaran excursion at Cayman is about the best excursion I've taken.

Okay, so what exactly happened with DCL and Sandy? I've seen several references to this, but have apparently missed something.

And I wasn't watching the weather channel (though I agree with your assessment). What happens with the High and the Trough coming across the SE will determine what happens -- but that is still so far out there are too many variables in play to predict.

 

[Dug720]

Okay, so what exactly happened with DCL and Sandy? I've seen several references to this, but have apparently missed something.

And I wasn't watching the weather channel (though I agree with your assessment). What happens with the High and the Trough coming across the SE will determine what happens -- but that is still so far out there are too many variables in play to predict.

They were trying to stay out of her path, but she was so unpredictable they ended up in her.

 

[jdg345]

They were trying to stay out of her path, but she was so unpredictable they ended up in her.

Thank you and Wow ... I figured a ship would be able to outrun a storm ... I guess they were just too close for comfort and got caught on the wrong side of a 'wobble'?

Did DCL officially come out and say that they were changing their processes and are now staying further away perhaps?

 

[Dug720]

Thank you and Wow ... I figured a ship would be able to outrun a storm ... I guess they were just too close for comfort and got caught on the wrong side of a 'wobble'?

Did DCL officially come out and say that they were changing their processes and are now staying further away perhaps?

Sandy did more than wobble - she was all over the place for a while.

I don't know if they publicly said anything, but obviously they try to err on the side of caution. However, there is a reason the "spaghetti model" has come to prominence - they are not always easy to predict. So my guess is they will do their best to stay out of the "cone of uncertainty" as much as possible.

 

[jdg345]

Sandy did more than wobble - she was all over the place for a while.

I don't know if they publicly said anything, but obviously they try to err on the side of caution. However, there is a reason the "spaghetti model" has come to prominence - they are not always easy to predict. So my guess is they will do their best to stay out of the "cone of uncertainty" as much as possible.

I would hope that after the fallout I'm reading about they have adjusted their minimum safe distance from storms of that nature. There's some crazy video out there!

 

[Spize]

They were trying to stay out of her path, but she was so unpredictable they ended up in her.

More accurately, captain thought he could beat Sandy to port and that Sandy would weaken and they'd just have crap weather, thought he would be able to skirt the edge and have a moderately bumpy ride, and ended up blasting the ship into the meat of the a storm that strengthened.

They didn't want to be late to port or delay disembarkment to the afternoon. The worst case scenario was the port being closed and having to stay at sea an extra day, instead they risked the boat and passengers.

No, I don't give Disney a pass on it as they were the only one of 4 cruise ships scheduled to port in canaveral that day to even attempt it.


I do, however, give Disney credit for how they changed policy afterwards and learned from it. No need to defend Disney, they fully admit their mistake and don't make excuses about it, why would you? Instead of denying, making excuses, or hiding their mistake, they owned it and fixed it. Proof is in the pudding, next storm that was even a question they didn't even consider sailing into it, extended one cruise and canceled another.

The mouse learned what works on land doesn't work at sea (I.E. no bumping guests, cancelling reservations)

 

[Spize]

Btw, you can calm down on IRMA a bit, all forecast models now show no impact with Florida and likely little rain even reaching Canaveral from Irma

https://www.cyclocane.com/irma-spaghetti-models/

That of course can change, but it's looking more and more like it's gonna take that hook North and affect nothing for us

 

[mkh531]

I live in NY and learned from Sandy that if the storm hits us, just get the hell out of here and take the kids and fly to Disneyworld. So I'm concerned about the storm as well but with a completely different DIS perspective haha

 

[Spize]

And of course, as I say that the front pushing it away stalls and now they have no clue where it's actually going.

 

[jdg345]

And of course, as I say that the front pushing it away stalls and now they have no clue where it's actually going.

Beyond 3 days out, everything gets dicey.

 

[aritchie45]

We are on the 9/9 Fantasy sailing also and watching very closely. Of course there is a lot of uncertainty still but the model shifts in the last 12 hours are not good. Odds of the Bahamas being at least impacted if not directly hit are rising. Even if Irma stays out at sea it seems like the cone of uncertainty could very well mean the current Fantasy cruise skips Cataway Cay or at least shortens the day there on 9/8. Lots of question marks in my mind on how they will handle the finish of the current cruise and start of the next one.

 

[xiphoid76]

We are on the 9/9 Fantasy sailing also and watching very closely. Of course there is a lot of uncertainty still but the model shifts in the last 12 hours are not good. Odds of the Bahamas being at least impacted if not directly hit are rising. Even if Irma stays out at sea it seems like the cone of uncertainty could very well mean the current Fantasy cruise skips Cataway Cay or at least shortens the day there on 9/8. Lots of question marks in my mind on how they will handle the finish of the current cruise and start of the next one.

We are on the 9/9 Fantasy as well. That is the big question - can the current Fantasy sailing safely dock on 9/9? It looks like they will have to at least cancel Castaway Cay...but these storms can be so fickle! The Dream is in port on 9/8 - can they take off? Can the 9/2 Fantasy return to Port? Interesting questions...all which impacts the 9/9 Fantasy cruise - even if 9/2 Fantasy can return to port - can the 9/9 take off with the Hurricane being just miles off shore? Disney has lots of thinking to do - and I am sure they will work out the best and safest solution for all.

Hopefully the Hurricane will just go away and no one's vacation will be impacted, but more importantly, no one's home or health in the Caribbean or East Coast will be affected!

 

[Spize]

We are on the 9/9 Fantasy as well. That is the big question - can the current Fantasy sailing safely dock on 9/9? It looks like they will have to at least cancel Castaway Cay...but these storms can be so fickle! The Dream is in port on 9/8 - can they take off? Can the 9/2 Fantasy return to Port? Interesting questions...all which impacts the 9/9 Fantasy cruise - even if 9/2 Fantasy can return to port - can the 9/9 take off with the Hurricane being just miles off shore? Disney has lots of thinking to do - and I am sure they will work out the best and safest solution for all.

Hopefully the Hurricane will just go away and no one's vacation will be impacted, but more importantly, no one's home or health in the Caribbean or East Coast will be affected!

At least, unlike Harvey, Irma is going to keep moving.

Here is a good chart to understand why it's not a worry about if, but where the cruise will go. We are going to be on a boat together next weekend.

The key number on there is 144. That's 9/9 and not one model has the storm at or close enough to Canaveral to be an issue.

The timing is what will help is. If it goes the purple NVGM that's best for our Eastern itinerary so long as VI are good able to clean up and ready to port in a week after it hits.

All the other models put Irma in our path so if that happens and I were a betting man, I bet on Cozumel, Cayman, Jamaica western or the other western itinerary (less likely unless second storm develops


I'm 99% sure we will sail and on time, it's where we go that's the question.... If I were DCL right now, I'd be fueling the Fantasy in one of the WC ports if possible and making my turnaround as quick as possible in Canaveral and getting out of dodge as early as possible Saturday.

If something happens that kept us from leaving Saturday, it's not going to keep the Fantasy out of Canaveral, so the worst case scenario is riding out a hurricane indoors while ported at Canaveral Saturday. They can do that, Port Canaveral took a direct hit (I want to say last year) and didn't take much damage at all (beyond a few restaraunts losing their awnings), so it's a safe port to be moored in. Btw, no models show a direct hit on Canaveral

(BTW, unless DCL is preparing to get to Canaveral early I see no reason why they'd skip Castaway Cay on current fantasy cruise, Irma won't affect CC until next Saturday at earliest)

 

[Spize]

The 9/8 3 night Dream sailing is probably screwed BTW, they are scheduled to be in Nassau 9/9 when Irma is most likely to be there, and CC 9/10 when Irma should be just leaving the area, before any cleanup can happen.

Being a 3-day, I'm not sure where else they could port and turn around back to Canaveral by 9/11.

Their only hope is a strong hook North that spares the Bahamas completely, or a day at sea with day 3 in Nassau.

Then again, I'm not a weatherman just a guy

 

[OneTrueKing]

The 9/8 3 night Dream sailing is probably screwed BTW, they are scheduled to be in Nassau 9/9 when Irma is most likely to be there, and CC 9/10 when Irma should be just leaving the area, before any cleanup can happen.

Being a 3-day, I'm not sure where else they could port and turn around back to Canaveral by 9/11.

Their only hope is a strong hook North that spares the Bahamas completely, or a day at sea with day 3 in Nassau.

Then again, I'm not a weatherman just a guy

I feel like I've read somewhere that they reroute. I'm on that sailing :/ and just trying to have positive thoughts about a stormy situation. Trying to find any hope anywhere I can since it's such a dicey chance of what exactly is the backup plan if any besides cancelling.

 

[nikkyluvsmickey]

Ok my hubby was really lookingfroward to gambling at paradise island if they reroute us to jamaica or cozumel or grand cayman are there casinos there?

 

[carolina_yankee]

(BTW, unless DCL is preparing to get to Canaveral early I see no reason why they'd skip Castaway Cay on current fantasy cruise, Irma won't affect CC until next Saturday at earliest)

Thanks for the site link to the spaghetti models - didn't know about them and always enjoy having more things to look at.

I think Castaway Cay would be iffy on Friday from an operational standpoint if they expect a hit to the island. The staff will have to get the island prepped, and they may use the Fantasy to pull the staff off (which I believe they did for Matthew, but with the Dream).

At this point, I would say anything is possible, but the Fantasy should sail in some direction. Given their experience with Sandy, I suspect they'll take as wide a berth as possible.

Dirk

 

[Spize]

I'm not that worried, DCL is pretty good at handling these things, I'll just chill and enjoy my vacation and let them do the heavy lifting, lol.