I understand what you mean. That is why I said it is a leap of faith for AP holders this first round. Our AP rate has always beaten the AAA rate that I get when I first book (when I remember to do the AAA rate
). I expect that to happen now too. I just won't have to do the AAA rate and then change. I can't imagine the AP rates remaining rack rate. Rather by booking this far out, AP holders will be the ones to get the AP bookings and then when WDW decides what works out best for them, the discounts will be applied.
I thought it was refundable up to 45 days or something like that? Even if it isn't, WDW has in the past let you change a reservation so you could apply it to a future trip. And those with APs always know there will be a future trip.