Beware of Very Cold Lazy River

[eileenkeeney]

Just an FYI for those who may be travelling to Aulani in near future.

We are just back from a family trip in early Dec. Our family has been to Aulani many times now and we love the lazy river, particularly my wife who has some mobility issues and loves to float and walk the river. The river for this trip was abnormally cold. Like very cold to the point that my wife couldn’t get in (along with many other guests). My sons and I are used to swimming in cool water and we also found it uncomfortably cold and only went for a couple of quick laps.

I raised issue with guest services who said they have been getting complaints but that the river is set for 82 degrees and that is what it should be. I indicated it was no where near that temperature and asked they they check things out. They said they would advise recreation and get back to me, They never did. I did ask a few lazy river life guards who said the river was definitely much colder than normal but they had not heard anything official. One life guard heard a rumour that the heater was broken but had no idea when things might get better. Other guests were speculating that Disney has just lowered temps to save on energy costs. At this point, we have no idea if something was broken but we have made some inquiries to help alleviate our concerns for future trips.

On the definite plus side, we did find cast members to be very friendly and courteous. In addition, the staff levels have improved considerably since our trip from April.

We found the lazy river to be warm enough. The kids said it was warmer than the Ocean. I found both to be quite comfortable. The hot tub area that overlooks the Ocean seemed cold for a hot tub.

 

[Paul Stupin]

We found the lazy river to be warm enough. The kids said it was warmer than the Ocean. I found both to be quite comfortable. The hot tub area that overlooks the Ocean seemed cold for a hot tub.

They fixed the hot tub yesterday. It’s nice again.

 

[TeamRiley]

If anybody really cares anymore, this is what staying in a one bedroom for a week every year looks like.
This is assuming starting with the same amount of money, one set is rack rates, one is DVC, one is 25% discount on rack rates.

All excess funds are invested at an average of 7% long term.
Long term fees increase for Aulani is estimated at 5% per year.
Inflation is calculated at 3% long term, but values are all in 2023 dollars.

More than 8 trips and cash loses. More than 16 trips and 25% discount loses. If you are in it for the long haul, DVC wins every time.

This does not include any profits that could be made selling and cashing out.

 

[Paul Stupin]

If anybody really cares anymore, this is what staying in a one bedroom for a week every year looks like.
This is assuming starting with the same amount of money, one set is rack rates, one is DVC, one is 25% discount on rack rates.

All excess funds are invested at an average of 7% long term.
Long term fees increase for Aulani is estimated at 5% per year.
Inflation is calculated at 3% long term, but values are all in 2023 dollars.

More than 8 trips and cash loses. More than 16 trips and 25% discount loses. If you are in it for the long haul, DVC wins every time.

This does not include any profits that could be made selling and cashing out.

View attachment 740289

Thank you. I really appreciate this. I’m not saying everyone on these boards needs to be as enthusiastic about DVC as some of us, buts it’s hard to dismiss these mathematics, especially with no data and only hot air!

And I don’t think I would ever spring for the cash rate to stay in a one bedroom ocean view without DVC.

 

[TeamRiley]

Thank you. I really appreciate this. I’m not saying everyone on these boards needs to be as enthusiastic about DVC as some of us, buts it’s hard to dismiss these mathematics, especially with no data and only hot air!

And I don’t think I would ever spring for the cash rate to stay in a one bedroom ocean view without DVC.

Same for us. It is not about saving money. It is about getting way more for your money. Subtle difference, but it is different.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Same for us. It is not about saving money. It is about getting way more for your money. Subtle difference, but it is different.

True…and good point.

 

[Beer Me]

Ha! We’re secretly camping out behind the stage on the Halawai lawn. Gets a little noisy on luau night, but we’re used to it. Actually, saying farewell to paradise tomorrow to fly back to LA, alas. It’s been a great trip!

Off topic but this reminded me of our stay at an Oahu resort (not Aulani) and early every morning I would go out on the balcony and a very neat and clean looking man would be decamping from behind a row of rental kayaks. He’d get up from where he slept on the sand and pack his things into a small backpack and be on his way.

I guess he had found a relatively quiet and hidden place to sleep. He didn’t look homeless - more like an affluent Asian business man - but there he was, every day, nonetheless. Hawaii has some strange characters.

 

[DLgal]

If anybody really cares anymore, this is what staying in a one bedroom for a week every year looks like.
This is assuming starting with the same amount of money, one set is rack rates, one is DVC, one is 25% discount on rack rates.

All excess funds are invested at an average of 7% long term.
Long term fees increase for Aulani is estimated at 5% per year.
Inflation is calculated at 3% long term, but values are all in 2023 dollars.

More than 8 trips and cash loses. More than 16 trips and 25% discount loses. If you are in it for the long haul, DVC wins every time.

This does not include any profits that could be made selling and cashing out.

View attachment 740289

Your X axis is labeled months. Is that a typo?

Also, where is the plot that shows what happens when you take the initial investment into DVC and instead put it into the stock market for 20 years, and you cash flow your vacations instead?

 

[TeamRiley]

Your X axis is labeled months. Is that a typo?

Also, where is the plot that shows what happens when you take the initial investment into DVC and instead put it into the stock market for 20 years, and you cash flow your vacations instead?

Yes, it should say "years". I have corrected it.

The stepped graphs are exactly what you asked for. Both start with $70k. One buys DVC, invests the rest at 7%, and pays dues monthly. The others invest it all at 7% and draw out for vacations. The first vacation is right at the start. Then growth, drawdown for vacation, and repeat.

At these values, if you invest for 18 years and never draw out, you have almost 4 times your initial investment. "Cash Flowing" your vacations as you put it is in reality withdrawing over 12% of your initial investment very year. With long term growth at 7% and withdrawals at 12% yearly, you run out of money really fast.

 

[Anal Annie]

Have you been to FL in January? Weather is a crap shoot....one day 70 next day 38....after about 5 January trips we finally said never again...was it warmer than home (MD) yes. But not by much...

We just hit our 11 month today and went to book Aulani for next January and the kids convinced me it is time to go to FL so another 4 month wait for OKW

 

[TinkAgainU]

I guess we have different ideas of what "astronomical" costs are. To me, the nightly cost of a 1br at a 30-40% discount is reasonable. To me, an $80,000+ investment is astronomical.

Quick and dirty, and I'm new at this DVC $ stuff too - if you went 1 week in a 1 bedroom villa, with an ocean view - points chart is 64 points per night for 7 nights during Peak season - or 434 per week. 434 points in today's Resale* market is around $97 per point (you may or may not find exactly a 434 contract, so I'm using 450 for numbers...) $43,650 and around $1,000 closing costs - so around $45,000 upfront. Plus annual fees at $9.14 per point (seem to rise around 5% per year but that's a wild guess and a few contracts are out there at $6.87 to start, but those sell for more upfront) equals around $4,113 in annual fees to Start.

You 100% absolutely do give up flexibility to book or cancel on the spur of the moment - but only you can guess how giving up the $45k upfront and commiting to $4k+ per year in maintenance compares to your current expenses. I think "most" DVC people consider the upfront money just throwaway funds, and the $4,000ish is what they are considering the cost for the hotel side of the trip for 30+ years to come - keeping in mind the Aulani contracts Expire in 2062. (*Resale does give up some advantages buying direct from Disney)

Another approach - a lot of people take the numbers above (assuming I have them right lol) and divide by two - and just say they will go every other year, getting half the points. I also did not address the theory/benefits of using the points to go to other DVC properties at Disneyland, Disney World or a couple random beach resorts in the DVC mix instead. Saying I will pay $23k upfront, and $2100 per year (escalating with the presumed 5%) for 7 nights in a 1 bedroom villa every other year in Hawaii sounds very enticing to many of us. And the airfare, meals, and taxes don't throw you off your budget as much every two years too ...

All that said, it's a Timeshare. Everyone has their comfort level with That

 

[DLgal]

Yes, it should say "years". I have corrected it.

The stepped graphs are exactly what you asked for. Both start with $70k. One buys DVC, invests the rest at 7%, and pays dues monthly. The others invest it all at 7% and draw out for vacations. The first vacation is right at the start. Then growth, drawdown for vacation, and repeat.

At these values, if you invest for 18 years and never draw out, you have almost 4 times your initial investment. "Cash Flowing" your vacations as you put it is in reality withdrawing over 12% of your initial investment very year. With long term growth at 7% and withdrawals at 12% yearly, you run out of money really fast.

You don't draw funds from your investments for vacations (unless you are retired, perhaps). That defeats the purpose. Cash Flowing vacations means using a portion of your income to pay for vacation (i.e. what I have always done, and what most people do).

And in reality no one funds vacations this way (by starting with a large pot of money and pulling from it annually for 20+ years).

If I invest $70k, at your rate of return of 7%, after 18 years I will have $237,000. I would have had to spend $13,000 annually on just a hotel stay for those 18 years to match that. I have never even come close to that.

In 47 years, I will have $1.7 million dollars. That translates to $36,000 I would have had to spend annually on hotel rooms to match that.

If you take your $70k and earmark it for JUST the hotel portion of your vacations (which is what DVC is), you will have zero at the 47 year mark. I will have $1.7M. How is that winning for you?

 

[TeamRiley]

You don't draw funds from your investments for vacations (unless you are retired, perhaps). That defeats the purpose. Cash Flowing vacations means using a portion of your income to pay for vacation (i.e. what I have always done, and what most people do).

And in reality no one funds vacations this way (by starting with a large pot of money and pulling from it annually for 20+ years).

It is all semantics at this point. If you are using a portion of your income to pay for a vacation, that means you are not using that money to invest. It all comes from the same spot in the end.

Somehow you have to pay for a vacation. By saying you pull from your salary you are also saying you are removing money from your potential investment funds.

Of course no one funds vacations with one giant lump sum, but like I said, it all comes from the same spot. Spend it or invest it. If you want to vacation at Aulani every year for 20 years, you can't beat DVC. I would welcome any math that shows that you can.

 

[JC1984]

Have you been to FL in January? Weather is a crap shoot....one day 70 next day 38....after about 5 January trips we finally said never again...was it warmer than home (MD) yes. But not by much...

38 is shorts and flip flop weather when it is -20 outside. I have been twice in January and had decent weather.

 

[DLgal]

It is all semantics at this point. If you are using a portion of your income to pay for a vacation, that means you are not using that money to invest. It all comes from the same spot in the end.

Somehow you have to pay for a vacation. By saying you pull from your salary you are also saying you are removing money from your potential investment funds.

Of course no one funds vacations with one giant lump sum, but like I said, it all comes from the same spot. Spend it or invest it. If you want to vacation at Aulani every year for 20 years, you can't beat DVC. I would welcome any math that shows that you can.

As long as you believe it is saving you money, that's all that matters.

 

[Paul Stupin]

You don't draw funds from your investments for vacations (unless you are retired, perhaps). That defeats the purpose. Cash Flowing vacations means using a portion of your income to pay for vacation (i.e. what I have always done, and what most people do).

And in reality no one funds vacations this way (by starting with a large pot of money and pulling from it annually for 20+ years).

If I invest $70k, at your rate of return of 7%, after 18 years I will have $237,000. I would have had to spend $13,000 annually on just a hotel stay for those 18 years to match that. I have never even come close to that.

In 47 years, I will have $1.7 million dollars. That translates to $36,000 I would have had to spend annually on hotel rooms to match that.

If you take your $70k and earmark it for JUST the hotel portion of your vacations (which is what DVC is), you will have zero at the 47 year mark. I will have $1.7M. How is that winning for you?

I’m not sure you’re convincing anyone. But, quick question! I’ve never heard of a 40% discount offered at Aulani, which you say is available to you. What is it?

 

[Memorymakerfor4]

I’m not sure you’re convincing anyone. But, quick question! I’ve never heard of a 40% discount offered at Aulani, which you say is available to you. What is it?

Castmembers get it with a friends and family discount, also military. We got 40% off our May 2020 trip - still hurts me that one was cancelled. Now we have enough DVC points, even better!

 

[TeamRiley]

As long as you believe it is saving you money, that's all that matters.

OK, let's assume that no investment money is ever used. Only excess salary. If one person pays cash, and another finances 100% of the initial buy in for 10 years (a very bad idea), for the first ten years the yearly cost is almost exactly the same. One pays rack rates, the other pays Maint Fees and payments on the loan.

After ten years, the first is still paying cash, the second has paid off the loan and the cost drops to less than half.

Both still have exactly the same investment portfolio. If the dvc member chooses to sell early after the loan is paid, they are WAY ahead.

No matter what, there is no cash rate or discount that will beat DVC if you pay the long game

 

[PetePanMan]

Although the original theme of this thread has now evolved considerably, I’m just so thrilled there have been over 25k views and close to 500 comments. DISboards provides such a great forum to learn and share views. Just say “No” to cold lazy rivers!

 

[DLgal]

I’m not sure you’re convincing anyone. But, quick question! I’ve never heard of a 40% discount offered at Aulani, which you say is available to you. What is it?

We have been getting 40% discounts at Disney deluxe properties since around 2003 when they began military discounts. They are for active duty and retired military. My husband retires in 3 months from active duty so we will have these discounts available as long as they last. We also get approximately 50% off Disney park tickets, so our overall vacation costs are lower.