April Incentives - What Are Your Predictions?

[SLACG]

Interesting math on Disney's Direct Sales Current Incentives...

150 pts at OKWe is $24,750 after incentives, while RIV is $29,700. A difference of $4,950.
Annual dues for OKWe are $1,480.50 and RIV $1,329.00. A difference of $151.50. Over 33 year remaining on the OKWe contract, you will pay an additional $4,999.50 in dues!

I know the dues might fluctuate a little over time, but given the size of OKW and how much more it takes to maintain that property compared to RIV, I think it is safe to assume OKW will always be higher. And I also know that the time value of money is something to consider but just wanted to show that just because it looks cheaper at first sight, it might not be on the long run.

And on top of everything, when the OKWe contract expires, the RIV folks will still have 13 more years to go!

 

[AstroBlasters]

Interesting math on Disney's Direct Sales Current Incentives...

150 pts at OKWe is $24,750 after incentives, while RIV is $29,700. A difference of $4,950.
Annual dues for OKWe are $1,480.50 and RIV $1,329.00. A difference of $151.50. Over 33 year remaining on the OKWe contract, you will pay an additional $4,999.50 in dues!

I know the dues might fluctuate a little over time, but given the size of OKW and how much more it takes to maintain that property compared to RIV, I think it is safe to assume OKW will always be higher. And I also know that the time value of money is something to consider but just wanted to show that just because it looks cheaper at first sight, it might not be on the long run.

And on top of everything, when the OKWe contract expires, the RIV folks will still have 13 more years to go!

RIV dues will likely start to increase at a faster rate as it ages and requires more maintenance.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Yes, agreed.

I think in general there is a tension between "DVC is the cheapest way to vacation at Disney" vs "DVC is a way to pay for a better Disney vacation experience". The truth is, it's always a balance of both. You can vacation more cheaply off-site, and you can probably get a better experience at Four Seasons (unless you're paying for Cabins/Bungalows/GVs). It's really about getting the most bang for your buck, and we all draw our own points of diminishing return.

Some folks focus more on having an elevated vacation experience, such that while a 1BR is a bad value on a SF basis, it's how they want to spend their money. Maybe it would be cheaper for them to stay in a Studio, but they don't want to do that. And if you're in that bucket, availability will probably always be fairly decent, and SAP+ probably make good sense.

Lots of other folks really only want to stay in Studios in order to stretch their vacation dollars, and for them I'd always recommend owning where they want to stay. Because, as you say, that's how you get value for your points!

For my family, that means owning at PVB, which we adore, and sometimes switching to a 2BR elsewhere if we have a larger party or want more space. With the addition of our 6th child late last year, we'll have to either consistently get two studios, or upgrade to a 2BR anyway. Thankfully, the PVB point chart is so high that a 2BR at CCV or SSR ends up being about the price of two studios!

I don’t know about “tension”, but I read about how many humans people are trying to cram into a studio or 1Bd with one bathroom and think it sounds like a punishment and not a vacation.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I don’t know about “tension”, but I read about how many humans people are trying to cram into a studio or 1Bd with one bathroom and think it sounds like a punishment and not a vacation.

We are totally happy with 4 in a room (even if there’s no split bathroom) as long as there’s a balcony, but we learned on a DCL
cruise (with a split bathroom!) that 5 people is our breaking point…we can even manage 5 to a room fine for an overnight or even a short WDW trip where we are at the parks when we are awake (back before I needed more downtime)—but wouldn’t do it for a resort based trip.

I’m actually curious how it will work out for the new cabins that are designed for 6 with one bathroom— especially because (unlike the many tower hotels with lobbies) I presume it is not an easy 1-2 minute trip to the lobby bathroom if two of you have simultaneous urgent bathroom needs.

Having said all of that, it’s great that some people need 1/2 bedrooms and some need studios and some of us bounce around opportunistically because it allows us to share limited inventory. I continue to worry that as direct points and dues rise (and new resorts have higher point charts), more people will be competing for small rooms with standard views…but then maybe it will prop up the resale market for specific properties as people collect more points on the cheap to upgrade views and get more space.

 

[WinterSolider]

I also know that the time value of money is something to consider but just wanted to show that just because it looks cheaper at first sight, it might not be on the long run.

I don't think people actually understand how much time value of money matters when you're talking about a 30+ year time horizon.

$100 of dues in 2057 is worth $4.31 today at a 10% annual discount rate.

 

[WinterSolider]

I don’t know about “tension”, but I read about how many humans people are trying to cram into a studio or 1Bd with one bathroom and think it sounds like a punishment and not a vacation.

100%. Right now we can do 5 (kids are 9, 6, and 4) in a Poly studio but no other studio, even if officially it can sleep 5. Usually we do a 1 bedroom because we like the kitchen for breakfast but will also do two studios. Our favorite is when my parents join us and we do 7 in a 2 bedroom.

 

[Tatebeck]

I don't think people actually understand how much time value of money matters when you're talking about a 30+ year time horizon.

$100 of dues in 2057 is worth $4.31 today at a 10% annual discount rate.

If you or anyone else here were that concerned with time value of money and investing, you wouldn't be buying vacation club. You would invest all of it instead and pay out of pocket for cheap vacations

It's like if you were talking to people at a luxury car lot telling them they can save some money by buying the new luxury car that has a bunch of scratches on it and is discounted. But the reality is if they wanted to save money they wouldnt buy a luxury car at all that day. If they decide to buy, most people want to love their new purchase and wouldn't want the scratches car

Oh and in the long run, owning at a more favorable location will allow you to rent your points for more if/when you want/need to, allowing you to regain more money than just the lower dues. They usually hold resale value a bit better too in case of emergency

 

[WinterSolider]

If you or anyone else here were that concerned with time value of money and investing, you wouldn't be buying vacation club. You would invest all of it instead and pay out of pocket for cheap vacations

It's like if you were talking to people at a luxury car lot telling them they can save some money by buying the new luxury car that has a bunch of scratches on it and is discounted. But the reality is if they wanted to save money they wouldnt buy a luxury car at all that day. If they decide to buy, most people want to love their new purchase and wouldn't want the scratches car

Oh and in the long run, owning at a more favorable location will allow you to rent your points for more if/when you want/need to, allowing you to regain more money than just the lower dues. They usually hold resale value a bit better too in case of emergency

Yes, debating the best way to pay for something you want to purchase is exactly the same thing as debating whether or not to purchase it in the first place. You nailed it.

 

[BuzzLightyr]

Interesting math on Disney's Direct Sales Current Incentives...

150 pts at OKWe is $24,750 after incentives, while RIV is $29,700. A difference of $4,950.
Annual dues for OKWe are $1,480.50 and RIV $1,329.00. A difference of $151.50. Over 33 year remaining on the OKWe contract, you will pay an additional $4,999.50 in dues!

I know the dues might fluctuate a little over time, but given the size of OKW and how much more it takes to maintain that property compared to RIV, I think it is safe to assume OKW will always be higher. And I also know that the time value of money is something to consider but just wanted to show that just because it looks cheaper at first sight, it might not be on the long run.

And on top of everything, when the OKWe contract expires, the RIV folks will still have 13 more years to go!

At 150 - it is quite close, and if you value booking 11 months ahead at RIV, it makes much more sense to buy RIV.
At 300 - where the OKE incentives increase - this is where it gets real interesting, and tips it toward OKE if you are not tied to RIV.

Using RIV points, and season 6 / spring break non-easter or thanksgiving - 150 points gives me almost 1 week in a standard studio or every other year 6 days in a 1 bedroom, both requiring a standard view. Goes down to 5 days in a studio each year or 4 days in a 1 bedroom every other year if only premium view is available. The RIV point chart is relatively expensive (especially compared to OKW). I could see 150 being a good target for OKW, but most would probably want more for RIV points if they can only book premium view on their dates.

It also comes down to the discussion of space. I have a family of 4. Some here are fine squeezing into a studio and looking at where they can add a 5th traveller. If i wanted to do that, hotels are great options. Marriott swan/dolphin are great with points in a great location. I'm a huge fan of the Hyatt Grand Cypress with points (off property, but close, with a great waterpark and great restaurants like RIV. i drove to Epcot and took their bus to TTC for MK). You lose the ADR window advantage, but prices are much lower. Points and credit cards bring down the cost substantially. I struggle to find a cost savings of DVC studios vs. hotels - unless i put a huge value on ADR.

The reason i want DVC is space. I want to book my family of 4 in 2 bedrooms. Everyone sleeps on real beds. Space separation to manage different sleeping times (young kids, but same applies to travelling with older parents). Multiple bathrooms to avoid conflicts/waits in the morning, being able to take a shower in one side of the villa without waking people on the other side. For 2 bedrooms, DVC can be an unbeatable value. 2 bedrooms are nicer than 2 studios or 2 hotel rooms, as they basically take up the space of 3.

 

[Tatebeck]

Yes, debating the best way to pay for something you want to purchase is exactly the same thing as debating whether or not to purchase it in the first place. You nailed it.

I think you missed the part where I said you could use the savings, pay for cheaper vacations along the way and still come out ahead. No worries!

Which means in the example, they would go buy a used or cheaper new vehicle, still use it to drive, and save money in the process

Hope that helps

 

[AstroBlasters]

At 150 - it is quite close, and if you value booking 11 months ahead at RIV, it makes much more sense to buy RIV.
At 300 - where the OKE incentives increase - this is where it gets real interesting, and tips it toward OKE if you are not tied to RIV.

Using RIV points, and season 6 / spring break non-easter or thanksgiving - 150 points gives me almost 1 week in a standard studio or every other year 6 days in a 1 bedroom, both requiring a standard view. Goes down to 5 days in a studio each year or 4 days in a 1 bedroom every other year if only premium view is available. The RIV point chart is relatively expensive (especially compared to OKW). I could see 150 being a good target for OKW, but most would probably want more for RIV points if they can only book premium view on their dates.

It also comes down to the discussion of space. I have a family of 4. Some here are fine squeezing into a studio and looking at where they can add a 5th traveller. If i wanted to do that, hotels are great options. Marriott swan/dolphin are great with points in a great location. I'm a huge fan of the Hyatt Grand Cypress with points (off property, but close, with a great waterpark and great restaurants like RIV. i drove to Epcot and took their bus to TTC for MK). You lose the ADR window advantage, but prices are much lower. Points and credit cards bring down the cost substantially. I struggle to find a cost savings of DVC studios vs. hotels - unless i put a huge value on ADR.

The reason i want DVC is space. I want to book my family of 4 in 2 bedrooms. Everyone sleeps on real beds. Space separation to manage different sleeping times (young kids, but same applies to travelling with older parents). Multiple bathrooms to avoid conflicts/waits in the morning, being able to take a shower in one side of the villa without waking people on the other side. For 2 bedrooms, DVC can be an unbeatable value. 2 bedrooms are nicer than 2 studios or 2 hotel rooms, as they basically take up the space of 3.

this in regards to SPACE

 

[Tatebeck]

At 150 - it is quite close, and if you value booking 11 months ahead at RIV, it makes much more sense to buy RIV.
At 300 - where the OKE incentives increase - this is where it gets real interesting, and tips it toward OKE if you are not tied to RIV.

Using RIV points, and season 6 / spring break non-easter or thanksgiving - 150 points gives me almost 1 week in a standard studio or every other year 6 days in a 1 bedroom, both requiring a standard view. Goes down to 5 days in a studio each year or 4 days in a 1 bedroom every other year if only premium view is available. The RIV point chart is relatively expensive (especially compared to OKW). I could see 150 being a good target for OKW, but most would probably want more for RIV points if they can only book premium view on their dates.

It also comes down to the discussion of space. I have a family of 4. Some here are fine squeezing into a studio and looking at where they can add a 5th traveller. If i wanted to do that, hotels are great options. Marriott swan/dolphin are great with points in a great location. I'm a huge fan of the Hyatt Grand Cypress with points (off property, but close, with a great waterpark and great restaurants like RIV. i drove to Epcot and took their bus to TTC for MK). You lose the ADR window advantage, but prices are much lower. Points and credit cards bring down the cost substantially. I struggle to find a cost savings of DVC studios vs. hotels - unless i put a huge value on ADR.

The reason i want DVC is space. I want to book my family of 4 in 2 bedrooms. Everyone sleeps on real beds. Space separation to manage different sleeping times (young kids, but same applies to travelling with older parents). Multiple bathrooms to avoid conflicts/waits in the morning, being able to take a shower in one side of the villa without waking people on the other side. For 2 bedrooms, DVC can be an unbeatable value. 2 bedrooms are nicer than 2 studios or 2 hotel rooms, as they basically take up the space of 3.

If space is the most important thing for your family over things like location, etc, then OKW could be a great deal for you! That's the use case that makes sense for the OKW purchasers. Much different than buying OKW and expecting to swap to another location EVERY time, though you should be able to make it happen some! Sounds like they may have a buyer!

 

[Disney_escape]

RIV dues will likely start to increase at a faster rate as it ages and requires more maintenance.

I would expect long term cost of RIV to be less that OKW, simply due to the type of build and smaller footprint. I think we have seen this with BLT.

 

[WinterSolider]

If space is the most important thing for your family over things like location, etc, then OKW could be a great deal for you!

Location?

OKW is closer than Bay Lake Tower to 3 of 4 theme parks, both water parks, and Disney Springs. And if you have a car you can park outside your front door.

I would expect long term cost of RIV to be less that OKW, simply due to the type of build and smaller footprint. I think we have seen this with BLT.

I think that's probably true, but RIV also has to bear some burden for the Skyliner, and we don't really know how that's going to shake out yet.

 

[intamin]

Location?

OKW is closer than Bay Lake Tower to 3 of 4 theme parks, both water parks, and Disney Springs. And if you have a car you can park outside your front door.


I think that's probably true, but RIV also has to bear some burden for the Skyliner, and we don't really know how that's going to shake out yet.

If it was a matter of how close you are geographically VGF and Poly shouldn’t be expensive but they are because people care more about the number of transportation options available and being walking distance to a park.

 

[Tatebeck]

Location?

OKW is closer than Bay Lake Tower to 3 of 4 theme parks, both water parks, and Disney Springs. And if you have a car you can park outside your front door.

Yes, location lol. Just because it is closer on a map doesn't mean it's a better location when you can't get anywhere as easily...

OKW is walkable to 0 parks, monorail to 0 parks, boat rides to 0 parks, skyliner to 0 parks, and busses to all parks, which is typically thought of as the worst transportation mode

BLT (since you mentioned it) has the closest walk to the biggest park, monorail to 1 park with connections to a second park, no skyliner, and can bus to any others. That sounds a lot better to me!

If you are seriously trying to say that OKW DVC location is better than BLT, other monorail resorts, or epcot resorts then I think you must be trolling at this point

 

[BuzzLightyr]

I do want space and location, which is why I settled on Boardwalk for my home resort.

OKW has its charm, and I personally like the Florida theming more so than SSR and BRV. The challenging with BRV is I like in the northeast and surrounded by trees, I want something different than home.

OKW direct's biggest competitor is SSR resale, and semi indirectly BRV, BLT, BWV. If you can negotiate $70/point SSR like some here have, it's so much cheaper than OKE direct at $135 for 300, with the exception of losing out on RIV, and CFW access at 7 months.

BRV/BWV at $90-105 for a 2042 and BLT at 115-120 resale for 2060 undercut OKE direct while giving a non-bus transportation option to one resort as a 11 month advantage.

The two advantages of OKE direct is the blue card (it has a value, but how much?) and the ability to book RIV and other new resorts. RIV resale is a great value if you only want to book RIV. But what is unknown now is what newer /better resorts that may only be accessible with direct OKE points but not resale SSR points.

I wonder how much direct OKE are they selling here and whether this sale price continues on, or goes higher vs lower in July.

 

[BamaGuy44]

If you are seriously trying to say that OKW DVC location is better than BLT, other monorail resorts, or epcot resorts then I think you must be trolling at this point

So far we've learned from this poster that OKW is in a premium location and 7 month availability difficulties really aren't a thing.

 

[SLACG]

this in regards to SPACE

We are totally happy with 4 in a room (even if there’s no split bathroom) as long as there’s a balcony, but we learned on a DCL
cruise (with a split bathroom!) that 5 people is our breaking point…we can even manage 5 to a room fine for an overnight or even a short WDW trip where we are at the parks when we are awake (back before I needed more downtime)—but wouldn’t do it for a resort based trip.

I’m actually curious how it will work out for the new cabins that are designed for 6 with one bathroom— especially because (unlike the many tower hotels with lobbies) I presume it is not an easy 1-2 minute trip to the lobby bathroom if two of you have simultaneous urgent bathroom needs.

Having said all of that, it’s great that some people need 1/2 bedrooms and some need studios and some of us bounce around opportunistically because it allows us to share limited inventory. I continue to worry that as direct points and dues rise (and new resorts have higher point charts), more people will be competing for small rooms with standard views…but then maybe it will prop up the resale market for specific properties as people collect more points on the cheap to upgrade views and get more space.

This is why I love reading through these threads! I am new to DVC and there's so many factors I don't even think about so it's nice to hear different opinions here.
We're buying enough points to get us a week in a preferred view 2BR at our home resort during our usual travel period every other year, which is how often we have been going so far. But of course, now we're thinking, how about we stay at a smaller accommodation and could stay longer, go more often, or get a second unit for the kids to bring friends, etc...We are a family of 5, but with (fairly) easy going 20, 18, 16yo kids that want to head to the parks as soon as they wake up and will park hop to whatever park is open the latest to get as much park time as possible, so for them, the resort is just a place to crash at night. For now, at least. I guess we will have to test different options, maybe with a split stay so we don't bind ourselves into a bad situation for a whole week.

Thanks everyone for the great points made in your comments. It is great for all of us new here!

 

[Tatebeck]

This is why I love reading through these threads! I am new to DVC and there's so many factors I don't even think about so it's nice to hear different opinions here.
We're buying enough points to get us a week in a preferred view 2BR at our home resort during our usual travel period every other year, which is how often we have been going so far. But of course, now we're thinking, how about we stay at a smaller accommodation and could stay longer, go more often, or get a second unit for the kids to bring friends, etc...We are a family of 5, but with (fairly) easy going 20, 18, 16yo kids that want to head to the parks as soon as they wake up and will park hop to whatever park is open the latest to get as much park time as possible, so for them, the resort is just a place to crash at night. For now, at least. I guess we will have to test different options, maybe with a split stay so we don't bind ourselves into a bad situation for a whole week.

Thanks everyone for the great points made in your comments. It is great for all of us new here!

It is a ton to wrap your head around. I and probably most others on here read a ton of info and watched a ton of videos before buying in. Once you get it it isn't so bad, it's just very different than anything else we usually deal with. Once you are in though the flexibility is amazing! Its even more flexible if you eventually get multiple home resorts, which is what I ended up buying in with.