April Incentives - What Are Your Predictions?

[WeIcomeHome]

I did a breakdown of how much the next 50 points cost per point for the current Riviera pricing in case it interests anyone.

Looks like 150 or 250 total points is the sweetspot sub 500 points.
@100 points the next 50 would cost $118/pt*
@150 points the next 50 would cost $158/pt
@200 points the next 50 would cost $128/pt
@250 points the next 50 would cost $148/pt

*118pp assumes you take advantage of magical beginnings at 150 points (100 pts is not eligible) which drops off $3000 from the total cost of the extra 50 points

This convinced me to get an "extra 50 points at resale prices" using my Disney math! I'm hoping I can avoid addonitis for a few years!

 

[Sprinkles&Sprints]

I did a breakdown of how much the next 50 points cost per point for the current Riviera pricing in case it interests anyone.

Looks like 150 or 250 total points is the sweetspot sub 500 points.
@100 points the next 50 would cost $118/pt*
@150 points the next 50 would cost $158/pt
@200 points the next 50 would cost $128/pt
@250 points the next 50 would cost $148/pt

*118pp assumes you take advantage of magical beginnings at 150 points (100 pts is not eligible) which drops off $3000 from the total cost of the extra 50 points

This convinced me to get an "extra 50 points at resale prices" using my Disney math! I'm hoping I can avoid addonitis for a few years!

Interesting take - I did slightly different math and it led me to 250 pts (my wallet is liking your 150 much better )

 

[SLACG]

I did a breakdown of how much the next 50 points cost per point for the current Riviera pricing in case it interests anyone.

Looks like 150 or 250 total points is the sweetspot sub 500 points.
@100 points the next 50 would cost $118/pt*
@150 points the next 50 would cost $158/pt
@200 points the next 50 would cost $128/pt
@250 points the next 50 would cost $148/pt

*118pp assumes you take advantage of magical beginnings at 150 points (100 pts is not eligible) which drops off $3000 from the total cost of the extra 50 points

This convinced me to get an "extra 50 points at resale prices" using my Disney math! I'm hoping I can avoid addonitis for a few years!

Oh, man! The struggle is real!! I haven't even closed on our first resale contract (150pts at BWV) and addonitis is hitting me! I love RIV and having direct would be nice...and at that price!!!

 

[Duckbug.Ducktales]

I did a breakdown of how much the next 50 points cost per point for the current Riviera pricing in case it interests anyone.

Looks like 150 or 250 total points is the sweetspot sub 500 points.
@100 points the next 50 would cost $118/pt*
@150 points the next 50 would cost $158/pt
@200 points the next 50 would cost $128/pt
@250 points the next 50 would cost $148/pt

*118pp assumes you take advantage of magical beginnings at 150 points (100 pts is not eligible) which drops off $3000 from the total cost of the extra 50 points

This convinced me to get an "extra 50 points at resale prices" using my Disney math! I'm hoping I can avoid addonitis for a few years!

This is partly how I ended up with 250 pts at RVA back when I bought over 4 years ago, lol.

 

[FlyingDonut]

So later after the tour, I hit the DVC website to see what rooms might be available and lo and behold, the grand villa was open for Weds night so we booked it.

How did this work with points? Did you keep your VGC stay going and just add on the grand villa at VDH for one night, or did they work some magic and cancel a VGC night, get through holding, and book the grand villa in one whole swoop?

 

[WeIcomeHome]

Interesting take - I did slightly different math and it led me to 250 pts (my wallet is liking your 150 much better )

I'm in the same boat at a 250 point purchase. The only reason 150 looks so appealing in those numbers is the magical beginnings start point. I don’t need points until 2025 so I know I'm using advantage of MB. Ignoring MB and 100 to 150 is the same as 150 to 200 at 178 per point.

 

[WinterSolider]

Everything you said makes sense, but this part stood out the most to me

Buy where you want to stay is the most important variable in all of this. OKWe are not particularly attractive SAPs with the higher comparative dues. Initial purchase price is a drop in the bucket compared the amount you’ll pay in dues over the life of the contract.

Also, the last few years of Disney has taught me to check my assumptions at the door. It sure wasn’t fun becoming a blue card member and then not having access to the sorcerer’s pass.

Bottom line, you loving your home resort is bedrock to any DVC purchase, IMO.

The only time I have stayed at my home resort has been Aulani.

"Buy where you want to stay" is insanely overblown because 7 month availability is nowhere near as dire as people like to imply. Especially if you have enough points for 1 bedrooms.

Buy where the math makes sense, taking into account the initial purchase price and likely dues. You'll be able to stay everywhere. Not every date or every trip, but over the course of your membership.

Unless, of course, you ONLY want to stay at the same resort every single trip. In which case, sure, buy there.

 

[WinterSolider]

The DVC hack is to buy points at a high point chart/low due resort and then use them at a low point chart/higher dues resort.

Yes, but...

If you're going to book 11 months at home and then flip elsewhere at 7 months, this can work against you. Booking a home rez at VGF for example is going to require a lot more points than a 7 month pivot to AKV. Those points get tied up and might necessitate banking and borrowing where you otherwise wouldn't.

 

[MarkNC2Disney]

Buy where the math makes sense

This was the larger point of my reply. OKWe is ok but isn’t the best use of SAP for either direct or resale points. Not the best decision IMO if you’re also meh about staying there.

 

[WinterSolider]

This was the larger point of my reply. OKWe is ok but isn’t the best use of SAP for either direct or resale points. Not the best decision IMO if you’re also meh about staying there.

I get the logic but I don't think it applies right now. At $115 per point direct, this is a case where the insanely low upfront cost outweighs the relatively higher long-term dues imo.

 

[BamaGuy44]

The only time I have stayed at my home resort has been Aulani.

"Buy where you want to stay" is insanely overblown because 7 month availability is nowhere near as dire as people like to imply. Especially if you have enough points for 1 bedrooms.

Buy where the math makes sense, taking into account the initial purchase price and likely dues. You'll be able to stay everywhere. Not every date or every trip, but over the course of your membership.

Unless, of course, you ONLY want to stay at the same resort every single trip. In which case, sure, buy there.

I'd say it's overblown overall, but very real in many cases. You want BCV from September to January? It can be done, but you certainly can't count on it. Many other examples. And who knows what it will look like in 5 or 10 years?

I definitely get the strategy of buy cheap and see what you can get at 7 months, I thought it would be me. But pretty soon I started thinking DVC costs way too much money to not be able to pick what we want. I thought I would enjoy the 7 month game, but nah.

 

[WinterSolider]

Not sure if this has already been addressed, but I saw some confusion earlier in the thread that the OKW incentive was limited to certain use years. I talked to my guide this morning and he confirmed that it's available for all use years.

 

[Sprinkles&Sprints]

I'm in the same boat at a 250 point purchase. The only reason 150 looks so appealing in those numbers is the magical beginnings start point. I don’t need points until 2025 so I know I'm using advantage of MB. Ignoring MB and 100 to 150 is the same as 150 to 200 at 178 per point.

Yup. I was originally planning to hold out for summer incentives but need a June Use Year - so I doubt the incentives will be strong enough to surpass this cycle’s including MB.

 

[MarkNC2Disney]

I get the logic but I don't think it applies right now. At $115 per point direct, this is a case where the insanely low upfront cost outweighs the relatively higher long-term dues imo.

The math isn’t mathing on that statement unless you’re planning to sell the contract well before expiration.

 

[WinterSolider]

The math isn’t mathing on that statement unless you’re planning to sell the contract well before expiration.

Time value of money is a thing. $100 per point saved now is worth WAY more than $2 to $3 per point per year for the next 30 years.

Like way way way way better.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

The math isn’t mathing on that statement unless you’re planning to sell the contract well before expiration.

The thing is dues can change drastically year to year. You only need a few years of low increase dues at OKW and high increase dues at SSR to even them out then $100 resale is worth less than $115 direct (for a few extra years expiration at that).

This is all a relative and subjective conversation and I think it mostly boils down to how one wants to use their SAP. While I don’t mind SSR, I prefer the vibes at OWK and so that takes being stuck at an undesirable home resort out of the equation for me. And resale SAP, though tempting for sure, is less tempting than direct SAP at a slightly more expensive buy-in because we would want to use them mostly at RIV since 7mo availability is really good there for 1bdrms and hopefully even more useful when eventually other resale restricted properties come about. The math can math, just depends on how you use your points.

 

[Stank]

The only time I have stayed at my home resort has been Aulani.

"Buy where you want to stay" is insanely overblown because 7 month availability is nowhere near as dire as people like to imply. Especially if you have enough points for 1 bedrooms.

Buy where the math makes sense, taking into account the initial purchase price and likely dues. You'll be able to stay everywhere. Not every date or every trip, but over the course of your membership.

Unless, of course, you ONLY want to stay at the same resort every single trip. In which case, sure, buy there.

This guy gets it.

Totally agree!

 

[pinkxray]

Yes, but...

If you're going to book 11 months at home and then flip elsewhere at 7 months, this can work against you. Booking a home rez at VGF for example is going to require a lot more points than a 7 month pivot to AKV. Those points get tied up and might necessitate banking and borrowing where you otherwise wouldn't.

This happens to me a lot. Our home resort is Grand Floridian. We typically stay in 1 bedrooms, sometimes 2. We tend to swap out at 7 months whenever DH comes bc he isn’t a GF fan. Right now, we have two trips booked for fall/winter and I have us booked in a studio. Don’t want to have to borrow for the VGF 1 bedroom when we will swap out at 7 months and have points stuck in a different year.

We are pretty flexible so I’ve always found something. I figure the worst that can happen is we get stuck in a studio at my favorite VGF. Sometimes I’ll book the weekend in a studio and the weeknights in a one bedroom in order to avoid borrowing, and then with stalking and waitlist get what I’m looking for.

I probably would have been better off getting BLT as a home resort and booking a 1 bedroom standard as a back up, but I just love VGF.

 

[hockeydad21]

This happens to me a lot. Our home resort is Grand Floridian. We typically stay in 1 bedrooms, sometimes 2. We tend to swap out at 7 months whenever DH comes bc he isn’t a GF fan. Right now, we have two trips booked for fall/winter and I have us booked in a studio. Don’t want to have to borrow for the VGF 1 bedroom when we will swap out at 7 months and have points stuck in a different year.

We are pretty flexible so I’ve always found something. I figure the worst that can happen is we get stuck in a studio at my favorite VGF. Sometimes I’ll book the weekend in a studio and the weeknights in a one bedroom in order to avoid borrowing, and then with stalking and waitlist get what I’m looking for.

I probably would have been better off getting BLT as a home resort and booking a 1 bedroom standard as a back up, but I just love VGF.

VGF is far superior to BLT....you just need a few more points!

 

[Frugal Fairy Tales]

Yes, but...

If you're going to book 11 months at home and then flip elsewhere at 7 months, this can work against you. Booking a home rez at VGF for example is going to require a lot more points than a 7 month pivot to AKV. Those points get tied up and might necessitate banking and borrowing where you otherwise wouldn't.

Could work fine if you book a studio 11-months out and then book a 1-bedroom at seven months.