BREXIT......How do you feel Brits? Excited??

[MariMama]

This has huge long term implications for our friends in the UK as well as us. It's not going to be pretty.

I agree, which is why it is so shocking to hear people say what a great thing it is.

 

[CPanther95]

This ultimately shows that democracy wins!

It also shows that our members here on this forum are not at all in tune with our cousins across the pond. A majority of those in the UK voted for independence from the EU, but based on the responses in this thread, the Brits we (collectively) are in communication with were against it at a rate of about 100:1.

 

[PlutoPony]

I don't think you'll see a long term issue in the market - at least not due to Brexit. The Brexit dip will probably be offset by the end of the summer, if not the end of June.

That doesn't agree with market analysis by the 3 large firms we have accounts with.
Can't imagine that stocks will recover quickly. The cost of doing business for multinational companies with a presence in the UK and Europe are going up, so profits are quite likely to go down in the short term. Plus markets - and business - DON'T like uncertainly at.all.

Edited to add: Would expect UK travel to US will be down due to extreme weakness of the Pound. And it's not likely to rebound anytime soon due to the uncertainty if nothing else

 

[ford family]

Alrighty then. The choice made by some UK citizens to move from the front to the back of the line in a global economy is somewhat hard to understand. But, if it's all about personalities....

Why have we moved to the back of the line? What disadvantage is there in self determination? Would you be happy to be have your laws created by unelected officials from Canada and Mexico?

ford family

 

[MariMama]

My 401k has been sad this morning.

DH was talking yesterday about what a great day it was for stocks and how great his 401K looked. I texted him this morning and told him not to look at his 401K and that stocks were plunging at opening.

 

[pigletgirl]

It also shows that our members here on this forum are not at all in tune with our cousins across the pond. A majority of those in the UK voted for independence from the EU, but based on the responses in this thread, the Brits we (collectively) are in communication with were against it at a rate of about 100:1.

I've been reading this morning on it and the UK citizens are all over the place with this. It'll be interesting to see how things unfold in the next 3-6 months.

Honest question here, how much will this affect the economy in the UK?

DH texted me, our 401K dropped significantly...

 

[PlutoPony]

It also shows that our members here on this forum are not at all in tune with our cousins across the pond. A majority of those in the UK voted for independence from the EU, but based on the responses in this thread, the Brits we (collectively) are in communication with were against it at a rate of about 100:1.

The graphic of vote distribution by geographic area that I saw showed the Remain vote to be heavy in the cities and Scotland. Leave was dominant in east coast of Britain and to a lesser extent the interior regions. Wonder if the UK Dis posters follow that geographic pattern?

 

[MariMama]

I've been reading this morning on it and the UK citizens are all over the place with this. It'll be interesting to see how things unfold in the next 3-6 months.

Honest question here, how much will this affect the economy in the UK?

DH texted me, our 401K dropped significantly...

I think most Brits voted on this emotionally due to the immigration platform, instead of the economic...which was a grave mistake.

 

[gwynne]

The graphic of vote distribution by geographic area that I saw showed the Remain vote to be heavy in the cities and Scotland. Leave was dominant in east coast of Britain and to a lesser extent the interior regions. Wonder if the UK Dis posters follow that geographic pattern?

And I think we have to remember that the overall vote was basically a split down the middle.

 

[CPanther95]

The graphic of vote distribution by geographic area that I saw showed the Remain vote to be heavy in the cities and Scotland. Leave was dominant in east coast of Britain and to a lesser extent the interior regions. Wonder if the UK Dis posters follow that geographic pattern?

 

[Oreo Cookie]

The graphic of vote distribution by geographic area that I saw showed the Remain vote to be heavy in the cities and Scotland. Leave was dominant in east coast of Britain and to a lesser extent the interior regions. Wonder if the UK Dis posters follow that geographic pattern?

There's also a huge vote split by age demographics: under the age of 50 voted in favor of staying in the EU and those over the age of 50 voted to leave the EU.

 

[godders]

Yes I have to say that due to the cost of a Disney holiday that those who frequently go (and are members of the DIS) are more likely to be on the remain side because the vote mostly followed that the most educated voted for remain (so in theory they are the people who have more expendable income).

Interestingly the 60+ age category had the majority of voters for leaving the EU. They are the age group that were 18-30 age group back in 1975 (I think) when we voted to join the European Economic Community. Would be interesting to see a comparison of the voting demographics

 

[JaxDad]

And I think we have to remember that the overall vote was basically a split down the middle.

FWIW, the split was nearly identical to that of the popular vote in the last U.S. presidential election.

 

[CPanther95]

And I think we have to remember that the overall vote was basically a split down the middle.

Yeah, that's my point. It was 52% (53% in England) for leaving, but if you look at the responses in this thread, the people we know over there are heavily against leaving by a ridiculous margin.

 

[A_Princess'_Daddy]

I don't think you'll see a long term issue in the market - at least not due to Brexit. The Brexit dip will probably be offset by the end of the summer, if not the end of June.

What economic analysis are you basing this on, because it does not jibe with any that I'm reading or hearing?

I've been reading this morning on it and the UK citizens are all over the place with this. It'll be interesting to see how things unfold in the next 3-6 months.

Honest question here, how much will this affect the economy in the UK?

DH texted me, our 401K dropped significantly...

This is more likely to set off a global recession, or at best stagnation, than a quick bounce back. Actually, it will likely look like a yo-yo, as the markets will try to rally but then slide back down. A strong dollar, not just against the pound but globally, weakens our ability to export goods, which results in economic stagnation in this nation, which results in cutbacks and layoffs in the already beleaguered manufacturing sectors. Like it or not, the global economy is chained together and this will reverberate for a while. US markets may be able to stabilize things a bit in the stock market, but the stock market does not like uncertainty AT ALL and that's what we're facing. This is not a little thing; this is the decoupling of the world's fourth largest economy from the world's third largest economy (if the EU is treated as a singular economy, which is is absolutely not but functionally in this case has coalesced as one) and it's not going to be painless, clean, or easy.

 

[godders]

To the bolded, you have identified the basic game theory that is at play (the classic Prisoners' Dilemma), but in this case Prisoner A has already publicly made their move, i.e. the UK voting to leave the EU, and they're now fundamentally asking Prisoner B, i.e. Scotland, to not make its move in order to strengthen their own, i.e. Prisoner A's, position. Logically at this point Prisoner B might as well make its move as well and lock in the lesser of two evils, functionally harming them both but avoiding at least some of the potential harm to themselves, as Prisoner B's obligation to Prisoner A was voided when Prisoner A chose freedom. Sure, the UK may negotiate good terms, but Scotland, by staying, may be able to negotiate far better terms.

You are completely right. Scotland may be able to negotiate favourable terms but I doubt the EU is going to give them as much money as the English Parliament currently does. On the other hand if they do leave that's more money back into the coffers (because lets face it, it won't be going back into English/Welsh/NI pockets).

 

[gwynne]

There's also a huge vote split by age demographics: under the age of 50 voted in favor of staying in the EU and those over the age of 50 voted to leave the EU.

I have to believe many of the over 50's who voted in favor of leaving really didn't have a full understanding of the consequences of their vote.
@A_Princess'_Daddy made a lot of sense to me in his post #22.

Otherwise, why would people choose years of volatility and economic uncertainty as they head toward retirement?

 

[Oreo Cookie]

Only time will tell. What happens next? It will be interesting to follow the rules of exit. How will this impact trade agreements both between the UK and Europe, as well as the rest of the world? They all need to be renegotiated. Will London continue to be the central hub for the European financial markets, or will it be moved? This could mean the loss of a lot of jobs in London, which I hope doesnt happen.

We live in a global economy, stability is critical.

 

[CPanther95]

What economic analysis are you basing this on, because it does not jibe with any that I'm reading or hearing?

It's just generally the way things go in situations like this. You have 2 opposite sides with their own agendas going head to head and all you get are the "dire consequences" voices on both sides - and by default you'll get much louder voices on the side of status quo because businesses and markets don't like the unknown.

Now that the change is going to happen, they will all be motivated by profit to be the ones to take advantage of the new landscape.


On a side note: The viewpoint that the majority of Brits only voted the way they did because they must just be too stupid to know any better - is pretty insulting ... and petty.

 

[gwynne]

Only time will tell. What happens next? It will be interesting to follow the rules of exit. How will this impact trade agreements both between the UK and Europe, as well as the rest of the world? They all need to be renegotiated. Will London continue to be the central hub for the European financial markets, or will it be moved? This could mean the loss of a lot of jobs in London, which I hope doesnt happen.

We live in a global economy, stability is critical.

We'll have to see. Personally, I highly doubt the UK is going to he "rewarded" for Brexit by leaving financial markets, banking in place. the EU is going to be motivated to make changes that benefit the EU countries. Sad mess.