Why is attendance up at Universal and Down at Disney?

According to Amusement Business, IOA drew 5.5 million in '01, and USF drew 7.2. AK drew 7.7.

If 5.5 million is good, then I guess we should stop berating AK.:rolleyes:

Yeah, there's more hoppers at AK, but there are more discounts at IOA, and they have a few hoppers as well. They also have a larger percentage of locals with APs, as gcurling pointed out.

Now, in case you didn't catch it, there's some sarcasm in the above. AK's numbers are not good and it does deserve some berating, but so does IOA. True, IOA has shown some improvement, but there's no guarantee that is sustainable, even if capital continues to be poured in.
 
Maybe I just don't get it...Universal says they are competing for a different demographic then Disney yet we keep comparing the attendance figures to Disney. So again we cover the exact same numbers. Yes IOA overall attendance is/was less than any single Disney park. I still don't see where that puts the park as a failure...now if they had come out and said we are building IOA to draw and steal the exact same guest away from MK then they that would be a failure. Does anyone have a link where IOA was expected to draw 12 million visitors and make X amount of dollars. Why do discounted Tickets keep coming up? I think that attendance improvements over the last two years show that IS/IOA understand that guest can't spend money in the parks if they are not there.
 
First - I'll agree with a previous post about "specials".

IMHO, Disney offers, well, ................... none.

I like IoA/USF, but am not "crazy" about them.

However, Universal currently has a special 2/1 deal on annual passes for Florida residents............. 2 yaers annual pass for $169.

As I said, I'm not crazy about Universal, but I DO like to go, so I jumped on that deal like a shark at a feeding frenzy. Now I WILL go at least 3x in the next 2 years to make sure I get value out of the passes. How much would I have gone without them?? Once...maybe twice, but not more. Now they will get more of my $$ for overpriced food/drinks/junk/etc. that Disney probably would have gotten instead.

Get the bodies through the gates anyway you can, THEN empty their wallets while they are "captive" (for lack of a better term). Hopefully wdw will figure this out.................... someday.

Oh yeah, my biggest complaint about IoA?? They continually play rock music TOO DAMN LOUD!!!!! (and it's not that clean either)

p.s. - If AK is a "failure", why is the attendance there greater than IoA or USF??
 
The question was about the financial performance of the parks.
That means the cost to build it, and the revenue it generates are relevant. Attendance has a little something to do with revenue.

Why is it that if Universal says IOA is "on-track", its accepted by some, yet when Disney says its attendance is being hurt by factors outside its control, the statement is rejected? Do you honestly think that Disney is the only company that "spins"?

Universal maybe targeting a different demographic, but that doesn't mean they only wanted 5.5 million guests in a year that saw them discount heavily.
 
Hmmm…..

The “billions and billions” they spent actually included not only Islands of Adventure – but also CityWalk, two hotels, the parking structure, access improvements and other infrastructure. The park itself didn’t cost that much more than Animal Kingdom.

Is IOA making gobs of money, no. But it’s not the reason Vivendi is putting up assets for sale*. But what IOA did do is create a Universal resort that has skyrocketed earnings from the Universal’s property there. It’s exactly what Epcot did for WDW way back in 1982. But the most important impact that it’s had is that “Orlando” is no longer synonymous with “Disney” and that’s been costing the Mouse a whole lotta cash.

The general trend is that parks across the country have been doing very well – big expensive destinations like Hawaii, New York, L.A. have been hit. It’s the difference between the “family getaway” kind of vacation and the “Grand Tour” kind of seeing the sights trip. Locations that cater to families and value are winning, those that cater to spending lots of money and to glamour aren’t.

Out on the proper side of the country – Disneyland is going very well since it caters to families, caters to locals and still provides a level of value for the money. California Adventure is doing horribly even though it’s less than a hundred yards away. The place does not cater to locals, does not cater to families and is seen as a really bad value (even with all the discounts).

While WDW does cater to families – it is losing big time on the value equations. Cuts, the lack of anything new and interesting is combining with the “been there, done that” sense among the public according to the “rumors”. People simply feel it’s not worth it to go back again. People are only going if they can find a “deal” – just another way to balance out the value equation.
 
Just to be clear, I am NOT saying WDW is doing everything right. I agree with AV that the cuts, and therefore the perceived value, is at least a portion of WDW's problem right now.
 
Originally posted by raidermatt
According to Amusement Business, IOA drew 5.5 million in '01, and USF drew 7.2. AK drew 7.7.

If 5.5 million is good, then I guess we should stop berating AK.:rolleyes:

Yeah, there's more hoppers at AK, but there are more discounts at IOA, and they have a few hoppers as well. They also have a larger percentage of locals with APs, as gcurling pointed out.

Now, in case you didn't catch it, there's some sarcasm in the above. AK's numbers are not good and it does deserve some berating, but so does IOA. True, IOA has shown some improvement, but there's no guarantee that is sustainable, even if capital continues to be poured in.

Apples & Oranges. You cannot compare the raw numbers of IOA & DAK without also considering the built in customer base. The other Disney parks pull in double the attendance of DAK. IOA has just about succeeded in catching it's sister park's customer base....thus the attendance on Universal property has GROWN. Orlando isn't just for Disney anymore...Universal is becoming a viable alternative to a WDW trip.

From a news & customer standpoint, Universal is much more exciting place. They have annouced 2 new rides, there are two more rumored, and they have an energetic leader who isn't afraid to fuel more rumors & do what it takes to drive his business.

Over at WDW the only rumors are what cutbacks will come next. The President of the resort is content to spout the company line & nothing is done to build excitement for the future of the parks. It's the same old, same old.
 
I think you were right the first time, Scoopster...

Attendance is a starting point when looking at finanical viability. However, remember, the original question wasn't which is performing better financially. It was merely why is Universal's attendance is up since 1999, while Disney's is down.

Maybe it is just because Universal has sacrificed margins while Disney has not, and both are happy with their choice.

However, there is a possibility that Disney is explaining away their attendance to the economy even though part of the reason is their own mis-management. Its true that Universal is hurt less by tourism being down than Disney, but do we believe that explains the entire difference?

I don't.
 
Actually, my point was about financial viability - weighing in on the point about IOA being a money loser. I have no idea whether it is a money loser or not.

I've heard several times that IOA cost $2b to build. Now, AV may be right that it included CityWalk, the two hotels owned by Loewes and the parking facility. Maybe it was only $1b for the park. If so, that makes a big difference.

I don't believe the payback period (remember when that was part of the financial analysis vernacular?) needs to be two years. Clearly it doesn't. But, I'm just wondering if 5.5m visitors supports that level of investment. Maybe it does. What portion of those are unique visitors? How much cannibalization occured?

I'm not trying to rip USF/IOA, I like those parks very much. I really hope IOA (at its investment level) is wildly successful as it will hopefully cause more of the same.
 
Anyway you slice it I like Universal attempts at getting me back in the parks better then Disney's. Guess what it seems to he working based on the Increase of Attendance at USF and the Decrease at Disney.

The big question is will Universal attempts keep working? Well if they keep up the good work with adding new attractions and providing my wife and I some good "bang for the buck" we'll keep coming back. They have already stolen 3 days away from Disney this year and we are getting AP's to go back in Feb of next. Previously these would have been days reserved for Disney. For some reason I have a feeling that is what Universal is after right now.

I don't think that Disney has to worry about USF stealing guest entirely but....Build another couple of Hotels, a Golf Course or two, re-badge Wet-n-Wild( Or build a new theme-based one) and build a Third Park and the Mouse is going to be in some serious trouble. Oh by the way I think Universal has plans for all of that...Lets hope they don't lose their vision like Disney has.
 
Originally posted by thedscoop
That's alot of capital you're talking about Europa.

Yeah I don't think it will happen next year...but I can see it happening over time in the next 10-15 years or so. Disney might wake up one day and not be "the" place to go in Orlando anymore. Aren't we seeing glimpses of this now?
 
If you include the money that Disney conned out of the federal government for the parking garage – the cost of Universal’s expansion and Disneyland’s Resort additions are just about the same. Yes, it is more expensive to build in the middle of suburban sprawl California, but then Universal didn’t have the luxury of having tax dollars build part of their development either. As with everything in entertainment, it’s not how much money you spend it’s how you spend it.

In general, the “rumor” is that the average guest stays much longer (almost twice) at Islands as they do at Animal Kingdom. That little statistic has been a rather hard pill for Disney since length of stay equals dollars spent. For the park and its visitors, length of stay equals value received. It's a reason why IOA is constantly rated a much better park than AK. Most people (most – not all) judge a park based on “is it worth the cost to get in” rather than things like plant growth and “themeing”.

This is the reason why Disney’s hour cuts are seen as absolute madness. People will think the place is a better value if it’s open later EVEN if they don’t stay until closing. Disney used to understand this and went to great lengths to keep the parks open. Illuminations started way back as a way to entice guests to remain at EPCOT Center after dinner; Disney used to understand all about pleasing guests (and making money). These days their only concern seems to be saving money and displeasing as few guests as affordable. If Disney was considered a good value for the money (like Vegas still is by most people), WDW should still be doing better than the industry as a whole. The fact that Disney is one of the worst performers right now says a whole lot about the state of the company.

A little inside baseball “rumor” for everyone to gnaw on. Disney generally counts the first park a guest visits in its attendance figures. Any park a guest visits after that is recorded, but doesn’t add to the park’s “annual attendance”. Since Animal Kingdom tends to be the first park open in the morning, a significant number of guests would go to that park first while “waiting” for the other parks to open. This had the affect of inflating AK’s numbers since so many of these guests left very early (much less than half a day) to spend the bulk of their day at the other parks.
 
I’m repeating a little of what others said, but two much work to edit.

I've seem very little "official" information on IOA’s cost or performance. I have to think it has not grown as fast as they expected, but I don’t think we really have a good picture of its’ financial impact.

This all started with a piece J. Hill did awhile back. He tossed out the $2-3B number as IOA’s total cost and went on to say how at that level it would never make a positive return on investment (we may differ about his style, but I’m pretty sure he’s not much of a numbers guy). His said Disney saw this and vowed not to repeat this same mistake with DCA. The “IOA is a huge financial drain” tag has lingered ever since.

The counter-story is that the $2-3 billion was really the number Universal gave as their planned overall resort investment over the next 10 years. This would cover IOA, Citywalk, 4? hotels, and other unidentified improvements. I’ve seen one attempt at pricing out the individual attractions, with an IOA park cost coming in somewhere less than $1B (about the same as AK or DCA). I remember looking at divisional results when Seagrams owned them and don’t remember it ever showing a loss? When I've asked related questions of the insiders on the Universal board all they will say is that IOA has tracked close to its original expectations (??). I do find it curious that the next three attractions are going into USF and none is planned for IOA. Does this mean they think it is fine, or a lost cause?

We really need some visibility into revenues. If we assume all three of these parks cost about the same, is it clear which has been the better investment? DAK has the highest attendance, but we know cannibalization has been a big concern. What extra revenues does it get credit for? The soft afternoon crowd must impact spend per guest? Would it also not have the highest operating costs of the three (animal care)? How big a percentage of IOA's attendance is from the second day of a 2 day pass. One and two day visits caome at near full value? USF attendance has been flat so some cannibalization can be inferred, but seems much less than DAK? DCA has a similar cannibalization effect, but the appearance of much higher discounting and greater annual passes.

I could see DAK and IOA providing similar returns (modest?, a loss??), with DCA being the worse of the three so far.
 
Just a note about the costs of building IOA. I went back and searched the internet and most of the articles that came out around the time IOA opened pegged the cost of the park at roughly 1 billion dollars. This does not include the costs of city walk, the resorts or the parking garage.

I had thought the costs were higher. They got a lot out of their billion.
 
The general figure that gets rumored about is the park cost $1 billion to $1.2 billion. The $3 billion figures sounds like the cost for the entire expansion which would include another hotel, a water park and two golf courses.

The rumors I’ve heard is that IOA out draws USF (which run counter to the estimates published by Amusement Business [which, by the way, would not be the first time in recent months they’ve been wrong]) and IOA is growing much faster than the Studio. One of the missions the new head of Universal Orlando is the “balance out” the resort, hence ‘Shrek’, ‘The Mummy’ coaster and ‘Johnny Neutron’ are going to help out USF. The better clue will be where they decide to put ‘Harry Potter’ and the attraction from another major property they are whispered to have recently acquired (check out which characters will be included in the Halloween Haunt this year, Disney people may be surprised).

It’s also interesting to note that the original plans for Animal Kingdom would have been more expensive than Islands. That would have included Beastly Kingdom, the completed Dinosaur area and Asia on Day One. I’m sure some will argue that Disney did the right move by slashing their investment since the park isn’t doing so well. But many people will argue that the park isn’t doing so well specifically because Disney slashed it so drastically.
 
THIS IS A QUOTED FROM A PIECE ON MOUSEPLANET.COM from 12/12/2000 Yeah, almost 2 years ago! It forsaw all that has come to pass-and it is not by Nostradamus but by DAN STEINBERG, who for all I know posts on these boards...anyway I thought it was very well thought out AND is being proven correct...

"If it is indeed true that they are laying off more Imagineers and no longer doing any unique research, all I can say, "Ugh." This is so wrong, for two reasons:

One of my objections is on a gut level. Without WDI’s research into creating unique ride systems, we wouldn’t have the Omnimover (DoomBuggies in the Haunted Mansion, as well as Buzz Lightyear and Spaceship Earth in Florida), the PeopleMover, the Indiana Jones and Dinosaur EMVs, the Test Track cars, rollercoaster cars with soundtracks, the monorails as we know them, the Subs, heck, even the Autopia cars have their origins as original Disney designs. What would Disney theme parks be like without them? That doesn’t even count the hundreds, if not thousands, of small innovations that we don’t see, that give us better show effects and smoother park operations.

My other objection is strictly analytical. Sure, slashing WDI some more saves a bunch of money from the budget. But without Research creating new things unique to Disney, every future innovation will have to come from outside ride developers. These firms sell to anybody who has the money, so what will make the Disney parks different from the competition? I guess Disney figures that the difference will be that what’s left of WDI will gussy these off-the-shelf ride systems up (a la DCA’s Paradise Pier section) and make them look nicer than the competition. Is making things look real pretty a sustainable Competitive Advantage that will keep them ahead of their rivals over long haul? I just don’t believe it is.

And to make matters worse, guess where a lot of those talented Disney- trained Imagineers will end up? Many will go to those outside design companies, which means anything they come up will be sold to everybody. Which is why, for example, "Mad Mouse" coasters are proliferating like, well, mad mice. Anybody with the cash can buy one, so a Mad Mouse at California Adventure won’t be particularly unique. Even worse, if one of Disney’s competitors has any brains and some deeper pockets, they’ll hire those ex-Imagineers and wind up making attractions that are unique to the competition – and better than Disney’s off-the-shelf rides.

So now let’s some throw marketing strategy theory around this: There are two basic ways you can compete. One way is on price alone – that is, the customer buys based on price, and cheapest product always wins. Lowest price certainly isn’t Disney’s strategy. The other way to compete is called "Differentiation" – in other words, make your product unique in some way so that customers want to buy yours instead of the competitions’. So if Disney moves more and more to off-the-shelf ride systems, they lose some of their differentiation. And as the theme park business becomes more and more competitive, you should be differentiating more – not less.

All- in- all, this looks just plain dangerous. Any company that guts its research capability is resigning itself to innovative stagnation and eventually slow growth and creative death. Unfortunately, I’ve seen this happen in other companies, first hand.

Or to put it in a historical context, the amusements and boardwalks of the past which all used the same off- the- shelf rides were done in by a highly innovative competitor who ran off with a lot of their business. That’s right, Disneyland.

Don’t think it can’t happen here, Michael.

(SNIP)

Walt Disney World Hotel Service Cutbacks

This one hits something we studied just the other week in Marketing Strategy. And even though the idea of giving the same level of service and amenities to customers staying in the $500 a night Grand Floridian room as those given to the guests in the $100 per All- Star hotels seems like a no-brainer that doesn’t require an MBA to figure out, let’s apply a little marketing theory to see where this might take Disney.

One theory is called "The Commodity Magnet." It analyzes any product or service on two dimensions: Price to the customer and Cost to serve those customers. This becomes a 2x2 matrix (we MBAs love classifying everything into 2x2 matrices) like this:

This will give you four quadrants:
(DIAGRAMS DID NOT COPY ON COPY/PASTE) if you want to see the diagrams go to: http://www.mouseplanet.com/dan/comments.htm
all references to diagrams below are not here


Augmented – High Price, High Cost; a premium product with unique features and a high price to match.

Specialty – High Price, Low Cost; a fairly unique product that serves a particular need that doesn’t have much competition. Hence, you can charge a lot for product or service that isn’t too expensive to produce.

Core – Low Price, Low Cost; Now there’s competition, so prices are driven down and customers are buying on price rather than features.

Commodity – Low Price, High Cost; this is the worst place to be – the customers are demanding a low price and fierce competition between competing companies raises the cost to produce the product as each company tries to outdo the others.

Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that Disney’s premium hotels right now are in the Augmented quadrant – yes, a high price but with a high (read "costly") level of service. By cutting back on the service / amenity level, they are trying to move in the Specialty quadrant like this:



At first glance, this looks like a great place to be: customers giving you lots of money for something that doesn’t cost all that much to produce, which equals more profit! One big problem, though – the theory says that this position is inherently untenable. Why? Because all that profit attracts other competitors and your customers eventually get wise. They decide they don’t like paying so much to get so little and either move down to lower- priced but equal featured competitors in the Core quadrant or across to Augmented quadrant where they pay the same price but get more for their money.

Either way, they don’t buy the Specialty product once competition arrives. You are forced move to a more stable quadrant: either back to Augmented (which is expensive to get back to) or down to Core (where it’s much more competitive and you are likely to be drawn into the very unprofitable Commodity quadrant).



In fact, that’s where the name comes from – because as markets mature and competition heats up, products tend to be drawn down towards becoming commodities.

So moving from Augmented to Specialty is where Disney is going with these changes at the WDW high- end hotels – to an unstable and ultimately unprofitable strategic position, in exchange for a short- term increase in profits. There are a lot of really bright MBAs working for Disney – doesn’t anybody see this happening? Is nobody thinking strategically at Team Disney?"

Apparently they were not...and still are not

Paul
 
We wander over to Universal once every 3 years or so just to look around. In May, we went to I/A. Was virtually empty. Walked right on in to every ride (except Spiderman-20 minute wait) and were completely thru with everything by 2:30 in the afternoon.
If that is "up" attendance, I'd hate to see what "down" would look like.
 
I posted this in another thread, but since this thread is the one that referenced the Newsweek #'s, I though I should post it here, too.

The Newsweek numbers are not exactly kosher...

Disney's drop from '99-'01 is accurate, about 6%.

However, Universal's 11% rise if very mis-leading. '99 was the year IoA opened, and therefore its attendance of 3.4 million was not for a full year. So Newsweek compared a full year of IoA to a partial year and called that a "trend".

IoA drew 6 million in '00 and 5.5 million in '01.

Both WDW and USF/IoA experienced drops from '00 to '01. Universal's was larger at about 9.2%, while WDW's dropped 7.4.

So, what does this mean? It means that while WDW maybe making some mistakes, its inaccurate to say that Universal is doing any better.

Disney is supposed to set its own standard, so Universal's problems really shouldn't have much of an impact on them, but if we are going to compare, we shouldn't be misled by bad info.

Of course, this has nothing to do with 2002 data, which we've heard does look better for Universal than WDW. But I don't think we have much of anything "official".
 
Matt,
You have a good point about the first "year" of IOA not belonging in the numbers. It should be interesting to see what this years numbers are like. If they are up, it might support my theory. If they are even or down, well, I have been know to be wrong once or twice.

Not to defeat my own argument, but I just thought of something. Could it be that Universal is percieved as being a lower cost choice? I think their prices are about even with Disney, but Disney has a reputation for being expensive and perceptions are everything. If Universal was perceived as being less expensive, it might help them in a weak economy like the one we have now.
 
Originally posted by raidermatt
Disney's drop from '99-'01 is accurate, about 6%.

However, Universal's 11% rise if very mis-leading. '99 was the year IoA opened, and therefore its attendance of 3.4 million was not for a full year. So Newsweek compared a full year of IoA to a partial year and called that a "trend".

IoA drew 6 million in '00 and 5.5 million in '01.

I don't see how this is "not kosher." Universal had a rise in attendance...they did it by adding IOA...whether they add a ride or a whole gate, it is still a rise for the Universal "resort" attendance at the same time that Disney did not see a rise in resort attendance... IF they were claiming a rise in attendance ONLY at IOA, your cry of "treif!" (translation-a word for non-kosher food)-would be legit...as it represents the whole resort, this only shows that Universal has indeed used IOA to grow attendance.

Now, what use has WDW had for it's newest gate? When AK opened its first partial year and then for a whole year, its second year, did WDW resort see an increase like Universal got out of adding IOA?

Paul
 

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