Watching the tropics... again (aka Irma)

[luvsJack]

Well, its a bit rude of some of you to laugh off or dismiss the OP"s information.

I can think of quite a few hurricanes that were less than a Cat 3 and were very much something to be concerned about. To act as though most Floridians are somehow immune to the dangers of these storms is a bit ridiculous. Waiting until a storm is on top of you is just stupid.

We don't get hit near as much as Florida does, and believe me 12 years ago today we learned a hard lesson in not paying close attention. So did NOLA.

By the way, tracks can change and change many times. The OP simply meant "hey, this thing is there, may want to keep an eye out". She/he wasn't trying to cause a panic.

 

[bumbershoot]

they predicted this correctly and no one listened.

I'm in WA and I was aware that Harvey was on its way. Not sure how that would have happened if no one was listening (to all the meteorologists talking about it)

But tell me. What would "listening" mean to you? Can't move a house. Many people can't afford to leave. Many people don't want to leave.

My Floridian cousins stayed put in Daytona for the hurricane that wasn't some months back. (Peeved me that they had their kids there but I'm not in charge of their lives) They could have left. They didn't. They knew what was expected and their house not being looted was more important than their possible imminent death.

It worked out for them.

But they listened, just like tons of people in Houston did. What does it change, though?

My dear friend is in one of the few neighborhoods near Houston that isn't flooding yet. She knew it was coming, didn't know she'd be lucky, stayed put with her kids, and is doing ok. Has good neighbors, too. In her case if she had left her house would already be flooded bc of the golf course behind her and her pool.

To act as though most Floridians are somehow immune to the dangers of these storms is a bit ridiculous. Waiting until a storm is on top of you is just stupid.

No one is acting like that. No one is saying that.

 

[Tonyz]

The OP simply meant "hey, this thing is there, may want to keep an eye out". She/he wasn't trying to cause a panic.

Saying it's "somewhat likely" that it's gonna hit the Florida region (which right now there is absolutely zero evidence to support) is not the same as "Hey keep an eye on this thing."

 

[luvsJack]

Saying it's "somewhat likely" that it's gonna hit the Florida region (which right now there is absolutely zero evidence to support) is not the same as "Hey keep an eye on this thing."

Well, "we don't worry about it unless its a CAT 3" is just as much of an overstatement sooooo. . .

Besides, the OP quoted what the Weather Channel said, they didn't just dream it up.

 

[luvsJack]

I'm in WA and I was aware that Harvey was on its way. Not sure how that would have happened if no one was listening (to all the meteorologists talking about it)

But tell me. What would "listening" mean to you? Can't move a house. Many people can't afford to leave. Many people don't want to leave.

My Floridian cousins stayed put in Daytona for the hurricane that wasn't some months back. (Peeved me that they had their kids there but I'm not in charge of their lives) They could have left. They didn't. They knew what was expected and their house not being looted was more important than their possible imminent death.

It worked out for them.

But they listened, just like tons of people in Houston did. What does it change, though?

My dear friend is in one of the few neighborhoods near Houston that isn't flooding yet. She knew it was coming, didn't know she'd be lucky, stayed put with her kids, and is doing ok. Has good neighbors, too. In her case if she had left her house would already be flooded bc of the golf course behind her and her pool.




No one is acting like that. No one is saying that.

"No one worries unless its a Cat 3" Sounds like it to me. Laughing off or dismissing a weaker storm is what can and will get you in trouble.



As for Harvey, the mayor and other officials of Houston were dismissing the warnings. The Mayor in NOLA did the same thing 12 years ago. So no, they didn't listen.

 

[Tonyz]

Well, "we don't worry about it unless its a CAT 3" is just as much of an overstatement sooooo. . .

Besides, the OP quoted what the Weather Channel said, they didn't just dream it up.

I haven't seen anyone say (at least as of yet) that there's a good chance of it hitting Florida, so I'm not sure where OP got that.

https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/invest93l-atlantic-tropical-storm-tropical-depression

This is the only video on TWC's website about it, and it has nothing about it hitting land, even Puerto Rico and other islands, much less Florida.

 

[jjjones325]

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al932017_analogs.png

The top 10 analog tracks for this thing have been updates. Not a single one of the 10 tracks has it hitting Florida.

However, if you're in North Carolina or the Northeast Coast, maybe start paying a little attention to it as it gets closer to America.

Based on that one track, it's coming right for me on the coast of North Carolina. Maybe I should plan to evacuate to WDW.

 

[SaintsManiac]

As for Harvey, the mayor and other officials of Houston were dismissing the warnings. The Mayor in NOLA did the same thing 12 years ago. So no, they didn't listen.

Dismissed the warnings? Where are you getting that from?

 

[erinch]

Well, I can give you the prediction. sep 13-15 my DD and I are making our fall girls getaway to Halloweekends at Cedar Point. For the last five years, no matter what weekend we pick, the weather has been trashed by remnants of something that started in the tropics and then pulled in moisture from the Great Lakes. Watch out for Ohio in 2 weeks.

 

[Soldier's*Sweeties]

the weather channel before Harvey even became a cat 4 was predicting at least 30 inches of rain in the Houston area and said it was a conservative number. I tune into the weather channel everyday (missed my calling as a meteorologist) but they predicted this correctly and no one listened. I will always tune in to them and other outlets to get different view points but I will never ignore them.

What?
There are MILLIONS of people in Houston and the surrounding areas. They couldn't have all left if they wanted to. I think it's pretty insensitive of you to say that no one listened.


As for your OP... You have to give the storms time to develop or fizzle before making real predictions. It could effect you, or it could die out and be nothing. It's too early to tell. If Floridians lived their lives constantly watching TWC and preparing for every possible storm, no one would ever get anything done.

Also, for what it's worth, the worst storm I have ever experienced growing up in Florida was an unnamed storm that happened outside of hurricane season... That's how unpredictable weather there can be. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1993_Storm_of_the_Century)

Keep an eye if you want, but I wouldn't take anything too seriously until more information is available.

 

[P'colaBeachBum]

The Weather Channel loves to hype up all kinds of non-events.

Once you move here, you're going to find out quick that most FL residents don't worry about anything that isn't already a category 3 storm or above. Anything less is just an excuse to throw a hurricane party.

I'm not trying to be rude or anything, it's just not a concern this far ahead of time.

I hope you are not serious about not worrying unless it's a Cat. 3 and the hurricane party comment is not funny. I'm from the Pensacola area and clearly remember Camille hitting MS and the people that died while at a hurricane party. We moved further south after Hurricane Ivan and Dennis tore our property up. It never hurts to be aware during this time of year . Even a Cat. 1 can cause damage. Tis the season!

 

[scrapquitler]

I'll be at WDW in a week, and I have been paying attention to the potential for a new storm, but I have no intentions of any storm changing my plans. DH and I have already discussed what we would do in the case of a hurricane impacting our trip and our plan would be 'go with the flow, fly down early if necessary, stay longer if necessary, wear ponchos and flip flops' We've been there during a tropical storm where there was virtually no impact on the parks besides lower crowds and being very wet. I'm not worried at all.

 

[vettegirl]

I have my eye on it leaving in a week

 

[luvsJack]

Dismissed the warnings? Where are you getting that from?

Do you mean NOLA or Houston?

The governor of TX wanted to evacuate Houston. The Mayor did not. I mean, I wasn't there but that is what was reported.

In NOLA there were a LOT of things that could have been done to get a lot more people out. It wasn't done. It was up to the governor and the mayor of NOLA to do those things and they did not.

 

[Disneylvr]

Saying it's "somewhat likely" that it's gonna hit the Florida region (which right now there is absolutely zero evidence to support) is not the same as "Hey keep an eye on this thing."

As someone that is arriving in 10 days I will " keep an eye" on this system but I am not going to assume it is going hit Florida and go into panic mode. Anyone that goes in September knows to be prepared for almost daily rain/storms anyway.

 

[SaintsManiac]

Do you mean NOLA or Houston?

The governor of TX wanted to evacuate Houston. The Mayor did not. I mean, I wasn't there but that is what was reported.

In NOLA there were a LOT of things that could have been done to get a lot more people out. It wasn't done. It was up to the governor and the mayor of NOLA to do those things and they did not.

RE: Houston-- people died evacuating from Rita in 2005. It would have been impossible to evacuate 6.5 million people in 24 hours.

RE: NOLA-- were you there?

 

[minniegirl19]

Again I didn't mean to make a stir by this post.

My comments about Harvey is what previous posters are saying. I've watched the weather channel and they were warning of the rain and the mayor dismissed it. That is not made up it is a fact. So he didn't listen. I know logistically with evacuations it would have been a mess so I understand both sides. I just pray for all the people effected. It's truly devastating and I can hope all the families can recover from this. If I could go down and help I would. It's not something we should be arguing about on the boards. I was just stating what jen carfagno, jim cantore, Mike bettes etc (reporters on twc) have said.

Regarding the system I was originally talking about I again clearly worded it wrong. All I meant by somewhat likely is to keep an eye on it. The 11am advisory just came out and it is now tropical storm Irma and projected to become a hurricane. The weather channel just circled the Bahamas and the state of Florida to watch it over the next week to see where it's headed. It's still far out but it's something to be aware of, now don't think about canceling a vacation but just be aware and maybe prepare to expect more rain then normal September rain if it comes near the state of Florida/ Disney.

 

[Disneylvr]

Again I didn't mean to make a stir by this post.

My comments about Harvey is what previous posters are saying. I've watched the weather channel and they were warning of the rain and the mayor dismissed it. That is not made up it is a fact. So he didn't listen. I know logistically with evacuations it would have been a mess so I understand both sides. I just pray for all the people effected. It's truly devastating and I can hope all the families can recover from this. If I could go down and help I would. It's not something we should be arguing about on the boards. I was just stating what jen carfagno, jim cantore, Mike bettes etc (reporters on twc) have said.

Regarding the system I was originally talking about I again clearly worded it wrong. All I meant by somewhat likely is to keep an eye on it. The 11am advisory just came out and it is now tropical storm Irma and projected to become a hurricane. The weather channel just circled the Bahamas and the state of Florida to watch it over the next week to see where it's headed. It's still far out but it's something to be aware of, now don't think about canceling a vacation but just be aware and maybe prepare to expect more rain then normal September rain if it comes near the state of Florida/ Disney.

Thank you for making us aware. I will be following this post and the National Hurricane Center, because I am 10 days out from my trip, in the "keeping an eye on it" mode.

 

[SaintsManiac]

Again I didn't mean to make a stir by this post.

My comments about Harvey is what previous posters are saying. I've watched the weather channel and they were warning of the rain and the mayor dismissed it. That is not made up it is a fact. So he didn't listen. I know logistically with evacuations it would have been a mess so I understand both sides. I just pray for all the people effected. It's truly devastating and I can hope all the families can recover from this. If I could go down and help I would. It's not something we should be arguing about on the boards. I was just stating what jen carfagno, jim cantore, Mike bettes etc (reporters on twc) have said.

Regarding the system I was originally talking about I again clearly worded it wrong. All I meant by somewhat likely is to keep an eye on it. The 11am advisory just came out and it is now tropical storm Irma and projected to become a hurricane. The weather channel just circled the Bahamas and the state of Florida to watch it over the next week to see where it's headed. It's still far out but it's something to be aware of, now don't think about canceling a vacation but just be aware and maybe prepare to expect more rain then normal September rain if it comes near the state of Florida/ Disney.

Absolutely nothing wrong with making people aware, so don't even begin to feel bad about that. Our schools are closed today in the Baton Rouge area, because of Harvey. I agree with the decision to keep people safe just in case.

Everyone should be keeping an eye on any system that forms during peak season. I have lived through many hurricanes and I know what even a cat 1 can do. We lost power for a week during Gustav in 2008.

 

[Tonyz]

So this thing looks like it will become a hurricane named Irma, but there's still no reason to worry in the slightest yet. It'll be about 10 days before it gets near land but I don't think they know where yet. It might not even come close to land or it could go north or could die on its trip over from Africa.

So for those of us going within the next week it's nothing to worry about. For those going in two weeks it's still nothing to worry about yet but maybe start paying attention to it next week.