Monthly Update!
Total points recorded as of October 31st:
~519k points (15.9% of all points).
Points recorded in August:
~33k points.
October sales broke the trend downward, but just barely. September sales were 31.6k and October was 33k. October includes roughly 2 weeks of sales post-opening, when reviews and tours were available.
At the current rate, VDH will sell out in a whopping 83 months, roughly mid/late 2030!
Despite this, DVC hasn't ramped up incentives at all.
As I've detailed in the past, there is a potential rationale for keeping this sluggish sales pace: they already booked the rooms on cash and can't add inventory via declarations before 2024.
Currently ~22.3% of points are declared and at least ~16% of the resort has been sold. That leaves just ~6.3% of headroom, roughly 207k points, before more Units must be declared. At the current sales rate of ~7.7k/wk, that's just 27 weeks from the end of October, which works out to Mar/Apr 2024.
My thinking here could be completely unfounded, but considering they started renting rooms on cash prior to any sales starting, they may have heavily relied on their sales forecasts to determine how much inventory they could rent. That forecast is in the POS and it's the current level of declarations, 'just' 22.3% of points.
My guess a month ago was that the inventory they allotted to cash rentals was conservative and they left plenty of buffer for solid sales, making being correct in their prediction insignificant and we will see more declarations before Jan 1, 2024. Now I'm more skeptical--I think initial sales were faster than they expected and they've needed to pump the brakes a bit.
It will be interesting to see how sales change now that VDH is sold out. As a reminder, I'm just doing ad hoc and monthly updates now.
Fun facts about October's sales:
Nothing remarkable about mega-contracts, just one 1000pt contract at the top of the pile.
Unit 1E was the top seller again, roughly 70% of all sales this month, roughly 5.5x 2nd most (2A).
There was one potential Favorite Week contract, a 341 (or maybe 340...) point contract that could be a FW in a 1BR during Season 6 (Spring-but-not-Spring-Break). It's possible I'm overcorrecting some of the tax values posted. If anyone wants me to explain this, I can, but it's very inside baseball for this.
There was also a 169pt contract, but I can't find a FW that matches that. Maybe they just wanted a nice contract with incentives, or are targeting a specific non-week stay.
It is likely that a bunch of Units are now sold out: 1B, 1C, 1D, 1F, 1G, 1H, and maybe 1J. We still haven't seen 1A or 1I (one eye) show up in any recorded deeds yet. I'm also not sure how many Units are in Phase 2, but we've only seen Unit 2A from Phase 2 so far, but I suspect there's at least 2B and 2C, possibly also 2D.
Other interesting facts about the contracts recorded in October:
- 200 contracts recorded
- 71x 150pt contracts (72 the prior month)
- 24x 50pt contracts (30 the prior month)
- 24x 200pt contracts (27 the prior month)
- 22x 100pt contracts (21 the prior month)
- 13x 250pt contracts (13 the prior month)
- 10x 75pt contracts (13 the prior month)
- 36x other contracts (35 the prior month)
- 165.1pt average contract size in October
- May had an average of 128.2pt
- June had an average of 142.8pt
- July had an average of 157.2pt
- August had an average of 152.7pt
- September had an average of 149.8pt
- 1,000pt is largest contract in September
- 50pt is smallest contract
- 400pt is the largest contract size purchased multiple times (2x)
- Unit 1E was assigned the most (23.3k, 2nd most was 2A at 4.3k)
Points recorded by date:
View attachment 808329
"1U" unit stands for "Phase 1 - Unknown". This is because OCRW recorded a Unit number with an error and no 'most likely' correct fix. This is most likely due to issues with OCR (optical character recognition) used in their recording process.
View attachment 808332
Points recorded by month:
View attachment 808334
View attachment 808336
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