2021 Madison Marathon - My Prediction
Overall, I'm pleased with how this training cycle went. It's been since Dopey 2018 that I've done a complete training cycle with only running. The 2018 Chicago Marathon was the start of running+cycling. I had moved away from six days per week running because I seemed to have had an increased injury situation. But after doing a massive cycling training load + running, I was still ending up injured and my marathon performances seemed to suffer. So for the 2021 Madison M training cycle I went back to six days per week of running. To mitigate some of the risk, I decided to use the same training plan from Lakefront 2015 (my first Hansons Intermediate M training plan). With my increase in fitness, it means that while it was the same mileage it was less duration training.
I decided to take a look back at all the training plans that I have solid running stats for going back to the Wisconsin M 2015.
The WI M 2015 was my last "PR the day" and three days per week training plan. You can see I averaged 26 mpw for the last 13 weeks of training and about an avg. of 4 hrs total. Compare that to Lake 2015, and it nearly doubled to 49.5 mpw and 7:50 hrs on average. Lakefront 2016 was an attempt to further increase the training volume up to 63 mpw and 9 hrs per week. Despite 90 min more per week and 11 mpw increase, I only gained 5 min (3:28 vs 3:23). And then despite dropping down to 6.5 hrs and 45 mpw for Dopey 2017, I nailed a 3:20 M (no HM the day prior). Lake 2017 saw me go back to a similar duration as the first three Hansons plans and hit my still PR of 3:14. Then Dopey 2018 was a slight decrease in volume. After then, I moved to run+cycle and did 5 hrs, 4.5 hrs, and 3.5 hrs per week for the next 3 marathons.
So Madison 2021 is a similar mileage volume (49 mpw) as several other marathon training plans. But it's the lowest duration volume other than Dopey 2017 for a six day training plan. This was intended on being a light reintroduction to six days per week running. I think it was a successful reintroduction and I did well on sticking with the lower volume.
Next, I evaluated my HRvPace data for all the marathons of relevance after Dopey 2017.
It formed a nice trend. I plotted the HRvPace for the 3-4 weeks prior to the M. Then I did a line of best fit power curve for each individual set of data. As the line moves down and to the left, that means I'm fitter. Because I'm able to run faster at a lower HR. So the trend of the last three Ms on six days per week lines up well. Dopey 2017 (3:20), then Lake 2017 (3:14) and Dopey 2018 (3:16). Dopey 2018 was definitely the peak of my running fitness to date. And it shows in the HRvPace relationship. The Non-Cancelled M stays as a word of caution. My fitness based on this data was slightly better than Lake 2017, but I ended up finishing about 15 min slower. I think being injured mid-race didn't help, and neither did the wind. But when you look at the running stats in the table from earlier it could easily be a case of good cardiovascular fitness from run+cycle, but the body just didn't have the necessary running endurance for a fast marathon. So that brings me to Madison 2021 fitness. I'm in better shape than the 3:20 Dopey and 3:14 Lake, but not as good of shape as Dopey 2018. I'd agree with that assessment. I did tougher training runs during Lake 2017, but I also fell off a cliff when it comes to HRvPace when the race got close. Possibly because of overtraining.
So the question is, how I can I leverage the table and the graph to make a reasonable prediction on my race performance. Well I used the above power curves compared to the actual final marathon pace.
Dopey 2017 was a 7:36 and that crosses at 146 bpm on its power curve. My actual race day HR was 3bpm higher at 149. Interestingly Lake 2017 was 7:23 and crossed at 146 bpm. Dopey 2018 was 7:25 and crossed at 139 bpm (had HM day prior), and crosses 146 at 6:52. Prior to the 2019 Madison HM, my 146 bpm was 7:16. So my 2021 Madison power curve crosses 146 bpm at 7:06 (3:07 finish) and 139 bpm at 7:44 (3:23 finish). So I think that's a reasonable window.
I did more training than Dopey 2017, and my fitness curve is in a better place. So I think sub-3:20 is reasonable.
Beyond that, I don't quite know. There could be snow, which would likely slow we down. I did less duration than a normal six day plan, so that means probably a lesser conversion. Honestly, on race day I'll trust how things feel and go with that. I'll evaluate the pace as it comes and adjust based on hills.
So where does that leave me on making a projection? I'm not making one this time around. I'm not going into this race with any pre-conceived notions of how I should perform. Instead, I'm just going to let the race come to me and celebrate the victory lap.
that the weather holds out for you.
I always remember when we had a day off from school or I was sick that I wanted to watch "The Price Is Right".
