Predicted DVC booking patterns - Studios/ some 1-bedrooms (Prepared 2015)

[Lakegirl]

Thanks so much for putting so much work into this. Greatly appreciated!!

 

[Chereya]

You are amazing, Pete! Thanks for putting in the effort to check back on your original project and see if it needs updating with new info! We're not worthy

 

[skier_pete]

You are amazing, Pete! Thanks for putting in the effort to check back on your original project and see if it needs updating with new info! We're not worthy

Thank you, but I've said it before, I do this mostly for selfish reasons - even expanding to 1-bedrooms is self-interest though at the moment I don't use them, it's a point of consideration if we are to get enough points can be rely on 1-bedrooms at 7-months being readily available at many resorts. (Studios 100% go before 1-bedrooms.) I'm also super anal about understanding these type of things, especially if I consider additional point purchases in the future. Knowing these little details give a lot of knowledge to be able to book trips accordingly. (For instance, with our daughter in high school, we need to travel February break week (President's day week) and the knowledge I provide myself tells me that Thurs-Fri-Sat of that week you better book home resort or you will be SOL at 7-months. But earlier in the week is good to get in many more places. Allowed me to book Boardwalk view room for the first 3 nights of our trip.

The only unselfish part is sharing it with everyone, but I am all about allowing others to make informed decisions.

 

[Wakey]

Thank you, but I've said it before, I do this mostly for selfish reasons - even expanding to 1-bedrooms is self-interest though at the moment I don't use them, it's a point of consideration if we are to get enough points can be rely on 1-bedrooms at 7-months being readily available at many resorts. (Studios 100% go before 1-bedrooms.) I'm also super anal about understanding these type of things, especially if I consider additional point purchases in the future. Knowing these little details give a lot of knowledge to be able to book trips accordingly. (For instance, with our daughter in high school, we need to travel February break week (President's day week) and the knowledge I provide myself tells me that Thurs-Fri-Sat of that week you better book home resort or you will be SOL at 7-months. But earlier in the week is good to get in many more places. Allowed me to book Boardwalk view room for the first 3 nights of our trip.

The only unselfish part is sharing it with everyone, but I am all about allowing others to make informed decisions.

Thanks for the update Pete I will await it with baited breath. I only look at 1 beds and still find availability excellent at 7 month mark.

 

[Spartan86]

Thanks Pete!

 

[Pluto777]

Let me echo the sentiments, thanks Pete! BTW, any chance of a new updated version coming out soon?

 

[skier_pete]

Let me echo the sentiments, thanks Pete! BTW, any chance of a new updated version coming out soon?

I just said - about 11 months...

 

[Dean Marino]

You have done a wonderful job. But there are problems....

There are TWO DVC's at the WL. BRV and CCV. Now, you may have insufficient data to work with these. No shame on you . However? Given TWO DVCs at the WL - historic data is now irrelevant. It may take YEARS to develop a relevant projection for the Wilderness Lodge....

 

[DenLo]

You have done a wonderful job. But there are problems....

There are TWO DVC's at the WL. BRV and CCV. Now, you may have insufficient data to work with these. No shame on you . However? Given TWO DVCs at the WL - historic data is now irrelevant. It may take YEARS to develop a relevant projection for the Wilderness Lodge....

SkierPete has historic data for BRV at Wilderness Lodge. I expect that until CCV sells out the availability will difficult to accurately project as DVC can declare more units when needed to sell more points.

 

[Roxyfire]

Wouldn't the demand for CCV be different than BRV as well? While they are the same nightly point value and location, I think the newness and location inside the lodge proper would attract different folks, right? I don't know enough about the typical DVC person but I'd imagine being able to stay in a "new" location would have a certain appeal over existing properties.

 

[skier_pete]

You have done a wonderful job. But there are problems....

There are TWO DVC's at the WL. BRV and CCV. Now, you may have insufficient data to work with these. No shame on you . However? Given TWO DVCs at the WL - historic data is now irrelevant. It may take YEARS to develop a relevant projection for the Wilderness Lodge....

Well, it is quite possible that CCV could affect BRV, it is unlikely. They are two completely independent ownerships. The only potential affect is that the better amenitites of WLV makes people want to stay there more, but really I don't think the effect will be particularly strong, unless it is an effect at 7 months.

CCV has different owners and is nowhere near fully declared, so I am not doing CCV at all. I would expect CCV will also be quite different in general, because of the high number of cabins. Owners at BWV will have a much easier time getting studios than CCV owners will. (CCV studios will likely frequently be shut out at 11 months.)

Edit: In other news - the Poly just declared the last bit of the resort. It is expected to be very nearly sold out in the next 3 months. So, I feel comfortable doing Poly predictive patterns now. CCV will have to wait a couple of years.

 

[Dean Marino]

So - a minor suggestion? Re-title "VWL" data to "BRV" data. There IS a significant pool of data for BRV. CCV? Well, that's going to take a few years .

 

[skier_pete]

So - a minor suggestion? Re-title "VWL" data to "BRV" data. There IS a significant pool of data for BRV. CCV? Well, that's going to take a few years .

Good point - when I generated the data that's what it was called.

 

[zavandor]

Honestly so far I am not finding a LOT difference from 3 years ago, though I will say that the biggest differences are (a) room categories disappearing faster at 7 months and (b) September appears to be much more popular than 3 years ago - which you can probably thank Food and Wine for that.

Oh no!
I was planning to do around September 11-20 in 2018 and then 1-10 in 2019 in order to take advantage of the Platinum Pass offer, but was counting on fact that September was in low demand until the last week to book a variety of resorts (I liked my last split stay). Am I going to have an harder time to book September at 7 months?

 

[skier_pete]

Oh no!
I was planning to do around September 11-20 in 2018 and then 1-10 in 2019 in order to take advantage of the Platinum Pass offer, but was counting on fact that September was in low demand until the last week to book a variety of resorts (I liked my last split stay). Am I going to have an harder time to book September at 7 months?

The problem is I didn't start until last month, so I was already at 3 months to September. 3-4 years ago there was still a lot of availability even 3 months out from September, currently there is not. This doesn't mean there isn't plenty at 7 months. My instinct says you will find plenty of options, just maybe not BCV or BWV because of the extended F&W.

 

[Nie0214]

Definitely awaiting these updates! Thank you, thank you!

 

[DragonObsessed]

Does anyone have any booking info on the polynesian yet? Im new to the system and am trying to figure out if well be able to book polynesian in June. We own at AK.

 

[skier_pete]

Does anyone have any booking info on the polynesian yet? Im new to the system and am trying to figure out if well be able to book polynesian in June. We own at AK.

This is a guess (educated though) but for June you should have a good chance at the Poly if you book right at 7 months. I think the Poly will only be a problem at 7 months in Sept - Dec timeframe, but I am still compiling data.

 

[DragonObsessed]

This is a guess (educated though) but for June you should have a good chance at the Poly if you book right at 7 months. I think the Poly will only be a problem at 7 months in Sept - Dec timeframe, but I am still compiling data.

THANK U SO MUCH FOR THIS QUICK REPLY!! I really hope so! I will def get on that at 8am at mnth 7

 

[DragonObsessed]

Im so sorry to bug you yet again but do u or anyone else know any booking info for hilton head over easter?