Poly Tower Speculation

[MartyParty]

@MartyParty you seem to be late to the party!

Well…I guess that’s why the thread is so quiet. I was late!
Just don’t call me late for rope drop!

 

[CraigInPA]

We know that Disney has people reading these message boards. I'm sure the folks assigned to do that are pretty happy with the level of buzz that being vague has brought to the Poly Tower project!

 

[SPLzero]

We know that Disney has people reading these message boards. I'm sure the folks assigned to do that are pretty happy with the level of buzz that being vague has brought to the Poly Tower project!

Why would they if the buzz is same association which means you can buy cheap resale and still stay?

 

[mkatsy]

Why would they if the buzz is same association which means you can buy cheap resale and still stay?

Exactly ... Coach does not sell this year's handbags at TJ Max. They don't even sell them at their own outlet. If you want the new shiny thing, you buy directly from Coach. After the excitement has worn off, you can get their merchandise on the discount market. In light of the trust papers & the survey ... everything is speculation ... a year out, they are holding their options open ... I would do the same thing too.

 

[hockeydad21]

Why would they if the buzz is same association which means you can buy cheap resale and still stay?

This is good buzz for DVC if you think about it. Not sure why, but people always talk about resale like everyone knows about it and that it makes up the majority of DVC sales. Both of which couldn’t be further from the truth.

If this new tower is worth 5 million points (hypothetically) and the average family buys a 200 point contract (again hypothetically), then Disney is on the hook for selling about 25,000 direct contracts, which is quite literally a billion dollars. Compare that to how many poly resale contacts are on the market at any given time, which is a total of about 25-50 contracts across the 3 main websites. That’s a monumental difference when considering how long many of those resale contracts sit on the market, sometimes 4-6+ months if not priced for a quick sale. I’m not sure Disney is all that concerned with the very small fraction of people who will move on a resale contract between now and poly tower’s opening. It’s chump change to them.

 

[Sandisw]

I will say that the sales people at the kiosks in Epcot and MK have no idea…they still said that nothing has been told to them…so, it’s apparent that DVC has not sent out a memo to all year on how to answer the question. Which I still find weird.

 

[mkatsy]

This is good buzz for DVC if you think about it. Not sure why, but people always talk about resale like everyone knows about it and that it makes up the majority of DVC sales. Both of which couldn’t be further from the truth.

If this new tower is worth 5 million points (hypothetically) and the average family buys a 200 point contract (again hypothetically), then Disney is on the hook for selling about 25,000 direct contracts, which is quite literally a billion dollars. Compare that to how many poly resale contacts are on the market at any given time, which is a total of about 25-50 contracts across the 3 main websites. That’s a monumental difference when considering how long many of those resale contracts sit on the market, sometimes 4-6+ months if not priced for a quick sale. I’m not sure Disney is all that concerned with the very small fraction of people who will move on a resale contract between now and poly tower’s opening. It’s chump change to them.

that's a good point. I did not realize that the poly resale market was so small. I perceived it to be much larger. That also kind of answers the question of "Why didn't Disney issue a clarifying statement?' .... why bother?

 

[Robbie Cottam]

that's a good point. I did not realize that the poly resale market was so small. I perceived it to be much larger. That also kind of answers the question of "Why didn't Disney issue a clarifying statement?' .... why bother?

Disney is testing the waters.
We are their lab rats

A clarifying statement defeats that porpoise.

The guides are licensed sales people they know what they can legally say…..

The kiosk “kids” are 13 dollar an hour employees…. You never know what they will say!

I would like to also point out, that the resale agents are the ones who have made the most out of this “announcement” and stand to make the most $$$ in the short term.

 

[MyDogTink]

Even if the Poly resale market is small, having the new tower in the existing association means resale owners of the OG 14 resorts can stay at poly tower at the 7 month window. So, most of resale benefits.

Even if some guides or kiosk reps are saying it’s the same association, I don’t know if that closes the “the current plan” open-ended language. I can see one guide saying it and others following.

I had a guide show me a 2 BR Lockoff at RIV and insist it was a dedicated 2 BR when I said I prefer dedicated over lockoff.

All that said, to me, I want to see the filings and offering docs.

One last thought, if it is the same association, that makes me fear it’s going to lack on accommodation like pool and dining.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

Even if the Poly resale market is small, having the new tower in the existing association means resale owners of the OG 14 resorts can stay at poly tower at the 7 month window. So, most of resale benefits.

Even if some guides or kiosk reps are saying it’s the same association, I don’t know if that closes the “the current plan” open-ended language. I can see one guide saying it and others following.

I had a guide show me a 2 BR Lockoff at RIV and insist it was a dedicated 2 BR when I said I prefer dedicated over lockoff.

All that said, to me, I want to see the filings and offering docs.

One last thought, if it is the same association, that makes me fear it’s going to lack on accommodation like pool and dining.

The guide I spoke to was very clear to emphasize “current plan” and then disclaim plans change at Disney

 

[mkatsy]

Disney is testing the waters.
We are their lab rats

A clarifying statement defeats that porpoise.

The guides are licensed sales people they know what they can legally say…..

The kiosk “kids” are 13 dollar an hour employees…. You never know what they will say!

I would like to also point out, that the resale agents are the ones who have made the most out of this “announcement” and stand to make the most $$$ in the short term.

agreed ... and everyone that is waiting to see the legal filing before making a decision, may be disappointed if it ultimately isn't decided in the manner that they would have liked, but they won't have had a financial loss. The people that are buying resale poly because they believe "it's in the bag", while they will only have themselves to blame if it doesn't work out for them, they probably won't see it that way, and will feel duped. That's not on Disney.

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

One last thought, if it is the same association, that makes me fear it’s going to lack on accommodation like pool and dining.

This is an interesting thought. It would make sense to not put as much effort on more dining and pools since it’ll be part of PVB. It’s crazy to not add it just to battle the current strain on the existing amenities but this works better for their bottom line.

 

[Hubalorian]

I can see not adding an emphasis to dining since it’s quite literally between VGF (Tons of dining options) and Poly1. They might think between those two resorts, people will be able to find something

 

[DonMacGregor]

This is good buzz for DVC if you think about it. Not sure why, but people always talk about resale like everyone knows about it and that it makes up the majority of DVC sales. Both of which couldn’t be further from the truth.

If this new tower is worth 5 million points (hypothetically) and the average family buys a 200 point contract (again hypothetically), then Disney is on the hook for selling about 25,000 direct contracts, which is quite literally a billion dollars. Compare that to how many poly resale contacts are on the market at any given time, which is a total of about 25-50 contracts across the 3 main websites. That’s a monumental difference when considering how long many of those resale contracts sit on the market, sometimes 4-6+ months if not priced for a quick sale. I’m not sure Disney is all that concerned with the very small fraction of people who will move on a resale contract between now and poly tower’s opening. It’s chump change to them.

A different metric to look at are the presale and add-on markets, and in particular, VDH. In other words, how many existing owners would have jumped on direct sales if the tower is announced as a new association, For VDH, that would be during the presale period (May 2 - May 30), or subsequently from June 1 through today, using the add-on tool. A much higher percentage of THAT cohort would be familiar with the resale market (but of course still not 100%).

Looking at the VDH sales thread, you can see how many points were sold during the presale period (when only existing members could purchase points), plus ay contracts that were less than 150 PP contract initially, then anything under 100 PP contract when they lowered the new member minimum (which would tally anything purchased using the add-on tool.

It looks like about 147k of the currently estimated 551k points sold were during existing member presales, I haven't looked to see if add-ons can be easily identified (by filtering based on contract size), but even without add-ons, there definitely was a big early surge of purchases by existing members. How many of those points would have been sold if there were no restrictions at VDH?

For argument's sake, let's assume they've sold an additional 53k points to current owners in the past 6 months (8,800 points per month seems reasonable) and have now sold 200k points out of the total 551k points to existing owners. Now, it's early in sales, and the number might be skewed a bit, but that 200k is 36% of total sales, and if that VDH tower had hypothetically been built at VGC instead, and not as a new association, how many of those 200k points would have been sold at all, with members knowing they can use their SSR/OKW/AKV sleep around points instead and just "gamble" on 7-month availability?

 

[Sandisw]

The guide I spoke to was very clear to emphasize “current plan” and then disclaim plans change at Disney

And that is always true. The fact that they said it directly in response to the question, when it’s not a typical comment…just included the documente , would make me hesitant.

Plus, to now a DS sale person at the kiosk say the same thing.. we have t been given any info…after last weeks meeting tells me, at least, that the potential change is different than when they have said don’t count on this.

And, maybe this difference is trust idea related?????

 

[hockeydad21]

This is an interesting thought. It would make sense to not put as much effort on more dining and pools since it’ll be part of PVB. It’s crazy to not add it just to battle the current strain on the existing amenities but this works better for their bottom line.

Plans call for a pool and at least one dining option confirmed for the ground floor/patio area. Early details on the pool can be found here...
https://dvcnews.com/wdw-resorts/pol...learned-about-the-polynesian-tower-s-new-pool

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

Plans call for a pool and at least one dining option confirmed for the ground floor/patio area. Early details on the pool can be found here...
https://dvcnews.com/wdw-resorts/pol...learned-about-the-polynesian-tower-s-new-pool

I know there will be at least a quiet pool and one dining option but at least on the dining front, I hope they add a quick service and table service option. Plus a little cafe like Le Petit Cafe at Riviera would be amazing! But the that might be asking for too much from DVC.

 

[cbailey1616]

Plans call for a pool and at least one dining option confirmed for the ground floor/patio area. Early details on the pool can be found here...
https://dvcnews.com/wdw-resorts/pol...learned-about-the-polynesian-tower-s-new-pool

Whats the water activity pool? A splash pad or something?

 

[SPLzero]

Whats the water activity pool? A splash pad or something?

in the original plans it looked like an outrigger structure with splash pad

 

[cbailey1616]

in the original plans it looked like an outrigger structure with splash pad

Have a link to that? The main pool is so crowded, Id love a kids spot over there.