I agree that the extension will increase the value of the points especially in the future. BUT my argument is that the value of the investment, which for me would be $4500, will increase more if invested in other ways. My invested $4500 will be worth more in 2042 than the resale price of the last 15 years of an OKW contract will be worth. PLUS I will have access to the money until then if needed without having to sell my OKW contract. (AKA Having cake and eating it.)
You'd be buying in with 2008 dollars, at 2008 prices, and assuming the 10 dollar discount is REALLY a one time thing, at a substantial discount.. So the question is: Would your invested 4500 outpace BOTH inflation AND the increase in DVC prices (which have, themselves, outpaced inflation) AND offset the discount being offered. The liquidity question is valid, certainly. But you can also choose to liquidate your DVC interest, albeit with more difficultly.
Let me break down what I get for the number you use, above. I'm assuming you're using the $15 per point break down, for 300 points. If you're assuming $25 per point for 180 points...the numbers will be different, obviously.
You invest 4500. In 2042, assuming a conservative rate of return of 7%, you'd have about 48044.62 (I'm compounding annually, not daily or monthly, so compounding daily or monthly will have some positive effect on that number). To replace your 300 points with points that expire in 2057 (which, really, right now are AKV points) for 160.14 per point to "break even". Less and you show a profit, more and you take a loss. That's only $56 above current retail price (without incentive). In comparison, OKW has seen an approximate 50% increase in 10 years...about $25...on the resale side. Granted, there's no telling what will happen over the next 35 years, or as it approaches expiration.
Obviously, varying your rate of return will change that number greatly.
Again, I'm not saying it's for everyone. Like you, I think it bears a lot more examination. But I can certainly see scenarios where it makes sense for people.
Then in 2042 I can buy another resale contract through 2057 and pocket the extra money. Or I can spend the money vacationing in other ways or just give it to my kids and let them decide what to do with it.
We addressed the first, above. The second...again, you're depending on resort rates and inflation to NOT outpace spending today's dollars at today's prices. Using the above example, your 48044 would get you 3202 per year (assuming 15 years) of vacation money. 300 points gets you, approximatetly, 2 weeks in a studio-ish. So lets go further and say you'd get about 1602 per week to spend on accomodations, or 228.85 per night. That's lower than what people pay NOW for many rooms at WDW.
If you leave the money invested, and simply draw off the vacation expense, you could start off at about $4300 per year, in 2042 Assuming a 3% room rate increase, over the next 15 years, and you'd be left with 430.21. Again, if we break down the $4300 over 14 nights, you'd be looking at 307.14 per night for 2042, going up by the 3% per year I mentioned.
Leaving the cash to the kids...well, that's the intangible and why personal situation comes into play when making this judgement.
I will admit I might be looking at this differently if I were younger. I am being a little inflammatory on purpose to get people to think about what they're doing before they shell out bucks to DVC.
I have no issue with you having a strong opinion, or using a bit of hyperbole to get your point across. But it might be contrary to your goal (getting people to take a strong look at the offering). What I'd hate to see is anyone dismiss this out of turn simply because they don't want to do the analysis themselves, and cursorily look at this offering, and the posts here, and say: It's a rip off. It MIGHT not have value. It MIGHT not be a good business decision. I think everyone needs to look at that themselves, though.
I have no horse in this race, FYI. We own at AKV and only AKV.....though if CRV does NOT happen, I'd strongly consider an OKW add on instead.
Please, all you financial guru's (and I'm not one...just a data analyst geek) PLEASE pick apart my numbers and show if/where I've gone wrong. I think that's probably the most useful thing we can do in this thread: Provide a thorough discussion of this issue for those reading the thread.