I'm sure ROFR has some effect on prices but don't forget that market demand DOES have an effect on disney's ROFR price. Disney could not continue to use ROFR at X price level unless they knew there were sufficient buyers to justify that expense. Hence, the buyers in the market can affect upward or downward of disney's ROFR. In a simple view, Disney is just another buyer in the market.
If Disney stopped ROFR alltogether tomorrow, would it affect resale prices. Yes. How much? I have no clue. I tend to think, however, that although some motivated sellers would under-price for quick sales, the majority of sellers would continue to ask and get the highest price possible which seems to hover 10 to 15 pts per dollar under whatever DVC is selling direct for.
If Disney stopped ROFR alltogether tomorrow, would it affect resale prices. Yes. How much? I have no clue. I tend to think, however, that although some motivated sellers would under-price for quick sales, the majority of sellers would continue to ask and get the highest price possible which seems to hover 10 to 15 pts per dollar under whatever DVC is selling direct for.
Whether you believe it or not, ROFR does keep the prices high. Artificially and greatly so? Maybe not. But look at the reports of ROFR being used. Obviously THOSE sales are at "lower than market value", right? Or what Disney deems "lower than market value". So, obviously, there are owners and buyers out there willing to sell at less....and many walking "the ROFR line".
So, without ROFR, and if that were left to run rampant, owners might not have a choice than to sell for less...because competition amongst sellers would force them to. NOW there is a "do not cross" line, artificially set by Disney. I don't think there's any way you can argue that ROFR has no effect on prices...there's just too much evidence to the contrary. How GREAT that effect is I suppose you can question, but the fact Disney excercises ROFR fairly regularly is proof enough that it does have an effect.
As to what effect the 2057 contracts will have on the market, we'll have to wait and see. But I certainly don't think you can ASSUME there will be NO effect, or minimal effect, just because there is a "small" difference between OKW and SSR resales right now. It MAY be the difference between 2042 and 2057 contracts is minimal. It may not. But there WILL be a difference.....it's just a matter of what it will be.