Let's speculate about Polynesian some more!

[Genie+]

RIV had +12% difference in contract length compared to VGF. Direct had a slump in 2022.

Is there a compiled list of monthly direct sales over the past 2 years including best incentives?

Early 2025, will we see 3 direct restricted WDW resorts:

FWCabins 2074 - 50yrs on contract

RIV 2070 - 46yrs on contract

Poly2 2066 - 42yrs on contract

Once the dust settles selling to Poly and Cabin die hards, will pricing be similar or maybe even the same.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

RIV had +12% difference in contract length compared to VGF. Direct had a slump in 2022.

Is there a compiled list of monthly direct sales over the past 2 years including best incentives?

Early 2025, will we see 3 direct restricted WDW resorts:

FWCabins 2074 - 50yrs on contract

RIV 2070 - 46yrs on contract

Poly2 2066 - 42yrs on contract

Once the dust settles selling to Poly and Cabin die hards, will pricing be similar or maybe even the same.

Just wondering why you think poly 2 will be restricted and 42 years

 

[Robbie Cottam]

It could help raise them. But wouldn’t that be a good thing for DVD at this point?

I get maybe holding off in 2022…but now PVB is going in the $130s to $140s.

If I am DVD and know I want to sell Poly tower close to $200 to $220 a point, I would want that price to be closer…like it was for VGF when BPK started.

Take what they say in reference to this with that grain of salt because if they want to sell you a contract resale, saying it’s the same means your resale contract, regardless of resort, gets access.

Too many guides and DVC sales people have said there is no decision shared yet and in some cases, have heard comments that indicated same were walked back.

Isn’t VGF 230 now ?
I think we see at least one more increase, and poly 2 is in the 235 - 250 range

 

[Mirabell Rose]

I voted 80/20 because past Disney history tells me that at the max they are 80% predictable, and that’s a stretch in my mind. Debating logic doesn’t fit many of the decisions they make. I listened to one of their VP’s at a meeting many years ago and I got the feeling that whoever at the decision making table had the power used their personal preferences. You can say no way they are too big of a company for that, they base things on sound business analytics. I say no, and there’s a big empty Star Wars hotel at WDW that flopped quick and hard to support my thoughts.

 

[Royal Consort]

I voted 80/20 because past Disney history tells me that at the max they are 80% predictable, and that’s a stretch in my mind. Debating logic doesn’t fit many of the decisions they make. I listened to one of their VP’s at a meeting many years ago and I got the feeling that whoever at the decision making table had the power used their personal preferences. You can say no way they are too big of a company for that, they base things on sound business analytics. I say no, and there’s a big empty Star Wars hotel at WDW that flopped quick and hard to support my thoughts.

There's a point you get to as Disney fan when you realise that a company this big is just "winging it". The bureaucracy within the company and the ability to make things more complicated than it needs to be is breathtaking.

 

[Genie+]

Just wondering why you think poly 2 will be restricted and 42 years

Only because it would be to DVD’s advantage lol. Most people won’t think too hard about it. Those that care have the longer RIV and FWC options. And Poly will be ready to neatly flip in 2066. Just a guess though.

eta- and they can get more money now and later that way

 

[Robbie Cottam]

I voted 80/20 because past Disney history tells me that at the max they are 80% predictable, and that’s a stretch in my mind. Debating logic doesn’t fit many of the decisions they make. I listened to one of their VP’s at a meeting many years ago and I got the feeling that whoever at the decision making table had the power used their personal preferences. You can say no way they are too big of a company for that, they base things on sound business analytics. I say no, and there’s a big empty Star Wars hotel at WDW that flopped quick and hard to support my thoughts.

The board and the c-suite of any corporation is put in place, to make the best decisions for the company based on their personal experiences ….. so yea, you’re not wrong

that’s pretty much how a corporation works …

kinda like when Chapek though it was a good idea and he opened his mouth…..

then McCarthy told the board he couldn’t fix a paper bag with duct tape….

that having been said, DVD seems set on the restrictions and has been consistently upping them slowly for over a decade

restrictions lend to new association

 

[Robbie Cottam]

Only because it would be to DVD’s advantage lol. Most people won’t think too hard about it. Those that care have the longer RIV and FWC options. And Poly will be ready to neatly flip in 2066. Just a guess though.

eta- and they can get more money now and later that way

Fair enough

 

[Sandisw]

Isn’t VGF 230 now ?
I think we see at least one more increase, and poly 2 is in the 235 - 250 range

Yes but with incentives I think it will come down to the $200 to $220.

Still, if it’s the same association it seems like they need PVB resale to come up before sales start which is what happened with VGF.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

Yes but with incentives I think it will come down to the $200 to $220.

Still, if it’s the same association it seems like they need PVB resale to come up before sales start which is what happened with VGF.

Doesn't seem like they care,
if they really need to drive the resale at PVB up they would be ROFR the hell out of it right now …

maybe they are considering PVB sold out because they know something we don’t?

 

[Sandisw]

Doesn't seem like they care,
if they really need to drive the resale at PVB up they would be ROFR the hell out of it right now …

maybe they are considering PVB sold out because they know something we don’t?

Which is why I lean new association. Doesn’t matter what PVB resale is pricing at if Poly tower is new.

 

[tom1944]

RIV had +12% difference in contract length compared to VGF. Direct had a slump in 2022.

Is there a compiled list of monthly direct sales over the past 2 years including best incentives?

Early 2025, will we see 3 direct restricted WDW resorts:

FWCabins 2074 - 50yrs on contract

RIV 2070 - 46yrs on contract

Poly2 2066 - 42yrs on contract

Once the dust settles selling to Poly and Cabin die hards, will pricing be similar or maybe even the same.

Why won't Poly be 2074/75?

 

[Mai Ku Tiki]

That's what I believe, too.

Well, could it be that they want to sell you resale Poly points, so they want you to believe you'll be able to use them at Poly2?

Yes, unfortunately, this is true. I remember that the first version of the 2020 points charts came out after the 2018 annual meeting, not before and not during, and I've always believed it was because they didn't want the uproar they knew would come with the big changes.

Yep! Of course sales people will say things to make a sale ! But I had indicated my inquiry was for other 3 other DVC listings...And in any event... I posted saying FWIW.

 

[maui22]

The cost to build Poly tower is extensive which can’t compare to what was spent to renovate…in 3 months…BPK.

It was basically given a facelift. They also declared 100% of the rooms by the time it opened, which is not typical. It’s because they were having trouble with cash reservations at the Grand. So giving it to DVC to add to VGF solved two problems.

For comparison, PVB longhouses were completely gutted and everything was redone inside. I believe it was 2-3 years of remodeling them because everything inside was redone. BPK was a "facelift" in comparison.

 

[Genie+]

Why won't Poly be 2074/75?

Could be. I’d even say most likely but they don’t always do the full 50yrs. If it’s to their advantage and appears normal since Poly1 is 2066, they might go with 2066. For some reason it just wouldn’t surprise me.

 

[Robbie Cottam]

For comparison, PVB longhouses were completely gutted and everything was redone inside. I believe it was 2-3 years of remodeling them because everything inside was redone. BPK was a "facelift" in comparison.

Gutted or razed….
it was my understanding the DVD razed what was there and rebuilt new,
is that not accurate ?

2 years to remodel, seems long even for a union job ….
2 years to bulldoze and start over seems more accurate

 

[Ruttangel]

At what stage would we expect PVB to be pulled from add on status? I’m sure VGF was a few months before it went on sale.
If it stays on there then means guaranteed new association right?

 

[Sandisw]

At what stage would we expect PVB to be pulled from add on status? I’m sure VGF was a few months before it went on sale.
If it stays on there then means guaranteed new association right?

VGF was removed from add ons as soon as the announcement was made in May 2021….you could not buy direct once it was announced that BPK would be part of VGF.

The fact they are still selling PVB direct to buyers is definitely not what they did with BPK…which is what I find odd…

 

[Mai Ku Tiki]

Gutted or razed….
it was my understanding the DVD razed what was there and rebuilt new,
is that not accurate ?

2 years to remodel, seems long even for a union job ….
2 years to bulldoze and start over seems more accurate

I never saw any longhouses razed.
And I was there almost weekly at the time, living very close to the Mouse..

 

[BeachClub2014]

DVD's primary function is to create and sell new pools of points to us, the loyal customers of Disney, and to do so in a manner that maximizes profits and meets both tactical (short-term) and strategic (long-term) business goals. Spending a gazillion dollars building a shiny new tower and then adding it to an existing resort that is about a million years old (and shows it) does not really further the stated strategic goal of enticing direct sales by adding restrictions to resale points. There is no evidence to suggest that DVC is backing away from that business model.

It makes no sense at all to add the Poly Tower to the existing association.

But hey, I could be totally wrong