latest info on hurricane isabel

[krhardy]

does anybody know what the people who live on CC (there are approximately 45) do in the even that a hurricane were to come close to the island? Are they evacuated to the abacos? Helicopter? Just curious.

 

[Miss Jasmine]

September 12, 2003 5:00 PM update:
Hurricane ISABEL

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000
WTNT43 KNHC 122036
TCDAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2003

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
CONFIRM THAT ISABEL IS A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE. MAXIMUM OBSERVED
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS SO FAR ARE 156 KT AT 700 MB...SUPPORTING SURFACE
WINDS NEAR 140 KT. THE EYE IS 30 NM WIDE WITH A CLOSED WALL AND A
MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 920 MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY THUS REMAINS 140
KT...WHICH AGREES WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. IT SHOULD BE
NOTED THAT ISABEL LOOKS A LITTLE LESS ORGANIZED IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY THAN IT DID 24 HR AGO. THUS IT MIGHT HAVE BEEN A LITTLE
STRONGER YESTERDAY.

THE EYE HAS RECENTLY NUDGED TO THE RIGHT...BUT THE LONGER TERM
MOTION REMAINS 270/8. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN OR REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ISABEL IS
CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A DEEP LAYER RIDGE...WITH AN ANTICYCLONE SEEN
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR 29N55W...AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS ALONG
68W AND 42W. IN THE SHORT TERM...THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A WESTWARD TO
POSSIBLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. UPSTREAM...A DEEP LAYER
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES WITH A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER SOUTHEASTERN
CANADA. LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE FORECASTS THE SOUTHEASTERN SYSTEM TO
MOVE NORTHWARD...LEAVING A WEAKNESS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE
CANADIAN RIDGE AS IT BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. NHC TRACK
GUIDANCE AGREES ON A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH
72 HR... AND TO THAT TIME THE FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. CONSIDERABLE DIVERGENCE OCCURS AFTER 72 HR. THE
UKMET CALLS FOR A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY 120 HR IN
RESPONSE TO THE WEAKNESS. THE GFS...NOGAPS...GFDL...AND CANADIAN
MODELS ALL CALL FOR A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION. SINCE ALL MODELS KEEP
SOME DEEP LAYER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC NORTH AND
NORTHEAST OF ISABEL...SO SHARP OF A TURN CONTINUES TO LOOK A LITTLE
DUBIOUS. THUS...THE 3-5 DAY OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL LEAN TOWARD THE
UKMET. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE UKMET IS CALLING FOR MORE
NORTHWARD MOTION AFTER 96 HR THAN FORECAST EARLIER...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS THUS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AFTER 72 HR. GIVEN THE DIVERGENCE OF THE MODELS AT 120
HR...IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO SPECULATE WHICH PARTS...IF ANY...OF
EASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES MAY GET AFFECTED BY ISABEL.

ISABEL IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A WARM-WATER LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
FOR ROUGHLY THE NEXT 72 HR. DURING THAT TIME...THE INTENSITY
SHOULD BE CONTROLLED MAINLY BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL THUS CALL FOR A SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH THAT
TIME BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND CLIMATOLOGY.
AFTER 72 HR...THE GFS AND SHIPS MODELS SUGGEST ISABEL MAY BE
AFFECTED BY SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. BASED ON THIS...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR A SOMEWHAT FASTER WEAKENING AFTER
72 HR.

WIND RADII HAVE BEEN REVISED ON THE BASIS OF AIRCRAFT DATA. IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT LARGE-SCALE MODELS ALL FORECAST ISABEL TO GROW
IN SIZE BEYOND 72 HR EVEN IF THE INNER CORE WEAKENS.

FORECASTER BEVEN

Here is the graphic of the computer models this is referencing. This will be updated sometime later tonight. Remember it is still WAY too early to really know what is going to happen.

 

[Miss Jasmine]

September 12, 2003 5:00PM graphic:

Next update will be 11:00PM

 

[RellingTwin]

I live in Charleston S.C. and work at a large hospital. We had a short meeting today to make sure everyone knows their responsibilies if Isabel comes our way. Thankfully I am on the 2nd team meaning, I can leave for the 1st disaster, but must stay if we have a 2nd!
Having lived on the Gulf coast of Fla, and Charleston for the past 20+ years I am a hurricaine pro!LOL! Last year we sailed on what was supposed to be a western crusie but hurricaine Lilli turned it into an Eastern!
I have learned to prepare for the worst, and get out early. But until the threat is clear, I try not to stress too much

Like everyone else, I hope Isabel heads out to the North Atlantic, but will make my plans to evacuate if needed. Charleston took a terrible blow with Hugo, but it's still standing

 

[Miss Jasmine]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 130843
TCDAT3
HURRICANE ISABEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2003

THE MUCH ANTICIPATED WEAKENING HAS OCCURRED. DATA FROM A
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN
TO 935 MB AND FLIGHT-LEVEL PEAK WINDS ARE 139 KNOTS. INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 130 KNOTS AND THIS IS PROBABLY ON THE
HIGH SIDE. THE RECON ALSO CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF TWO CONCENTRIC
EYEWALLS OF 25 AND 35 NMI AND A BAND OF MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH EACH EYEWALL...RESPECTIVELY. THERE IS NO SKILL IN PREDICTING IF
THE CURRENT EYEWALL CYCLE WILL RESULT IN FURTHER WEAKENING OR IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF INTENSIFICATION. BEST BET IS TO INDICATE SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A WEAKENING
TREND DUE TO COOLER SSTS OR SHEAR THEREAFTER. NEVERTHERELESS...
ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

ISABEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF A STRONG DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE. THIS PATTERN IS
EXPECTED TO STEER THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE WEST WITH A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. IT
APPEARS THAT THE TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY ERODING THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND THE HIGH WILL EXPAND WESTWARD.
THIS EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTROL HOW CLOSE ISABEL
APPROACHES THE U.S EAST COAST.

HIGH UNCERTAINTIES CONTINUE AT LONGER RANGE. THE CONSISTENT AND
GOOD PERFORMER UK MODEL HAS THE HURRICANE NEAR THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA BETWEEN 5 AND 6 DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE RELIABLE
GFDL TURNS ISABEL NORTHWARD IN FIVE DAYS AT A GOOD DISTANCE AWAY
FROM THE U.S EAST COAST. BECAUSE BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY GOOD SO
FAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN THESE TWO MODELS. AT THIS
TIME...I WOULD NOT EVEN DISCUSS THE GFS WHICH MOVES THE HURRICANE
EASTWARD FOR THE FIRST 12 TO 18 HOURS IN THE LATEST 00Z RUN AND
ISABEL IS ALREADY WEST OF 60 DEGREES WEST. HOWEVER...THE LARGE
SCALE PATTERN PROVIDED BY THE GFS IS QUITE REASONABLE.

NOTE: THERE ARE NO DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGESTING THAT ISABEL MIGHT
EVER REACH FLORIDA.



You can see the computer models on my post from yesterday's 5:00 update since the graphics automatically update. Looks like North Carolina might be the "hot" spot. Still too early though to be very certain but the weather patterns are starting to fall in place.

 

[mmouse37]

Just heard on CNN that it looks like the storm may turn away from the Bahamas but head for the east coast of the US.....still too early to tell but could hit anywhere from the Carolinas to New York!!

MJ

 

[KYCruiseCrazy]

cat 4 or cat 5 make up your mind. i hope this hurricane stays off shore

 

[jlawall]

Brace yourselves East Coasters........this may be a bumpy ride!!!!!

 

[ruvidu]

Hey RellingTwin;
We are headed to Edisto Island for a week on the 20th. We hope the projections are on track and this thing moves North and away from the coast. We can not change our course or port of call. We did not purchase the trip insurance for this trip and may have to take a big $ loss.
Keep Shadow dry.

Russ and Miss Vivian

 

[bigtime]

Miss Jasmine
Please keep your detailed updates comming. Living at the Jersey shore has me a little nervous......................

 

[Eggleboo]

Oh Boy!! I just left the Jersey shore and the waves were very rough and high from the last one which wasn't anywhere as bad as the one coming. I am very worried now about our home as Ocean City tends to flood badly with a hard rain let alone a hurricane. This will be my first as a homeowner down there, but I do remember one as a kid and it wasn't nice!! I hope the weather God is kind to all of us. Go back to sea you nasty storm, let the cruisers and shore homeowners alone!! GOod luck everyone!!

 

[KYCruiseCrazy]

if all goes well it will never get to castaway cay but its headed for somewhere on the eastcoast. i hope the people who lives in the projected path takes shelter and doesnt sit there to watch it and this there home will hold. ive seem to toooooooo many times. i hope no one gets hurt and property damage is limited. sorry if i scare you.

 

[jlawall]

Let's keep this thread alive for those of us who have family on the Eastern coast!!!

 

[disneyfan551]

Yes, I would love to keep this thread "alive" too... We got a call at 7am & found out that my dh is being sent to the coast for hurricane duty. Not only am I worried about him, but today is our anniversary!! I am sooo bummed.

 

[lbgraves]

It is down to 105 MPH right now. Let's pray that it continues to downgrade as it gets closer to land. 95 MPH is a category 1.

 

[jlawall]

How's the old girl doing now?

 

[floridaminnie]

STill a cat 2 hurricane.

 

[CourtasanSatine]

by the looks of a online newspaper I checked(got some email friends out that way) Newport News has to leave

off topic to floridaminnie: Your little girl is so cute

 

[lbgraves]

It had risen to 110 mph winds when it hit the gulf stream but is now back to 105!!! There is hope that it will continue to weaken before it hits tomorrow.

 

[jlawall]

Tomorrow's it! Best wishes to all on the eastern coast!!!