Is Coronavirus affecting your travel plans?

[soccerdad72]

Wife's firm (Big 4) has restricted all non-essential travel worldwide temporarily. Needless to say, her scheduled trip to India in a couple weeks is now off and she'll be doing Skype meeting calls instead.

 

[nicolita3]

So now I’m wondering how much intubation/ventilation equipment exists in our health region and if it’s something hospitals can acquire more of on short notice,

I saw a news segment on YouTube and they said there wouldn't be enough and that they may have to put 2 people to 1 ventilator.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

Wife's firm (Big 4) has restricted all non-essential travel worldwide temporarily. Needless to say, her scheduled trip to India in a couple weeks is now off and she'll be doing Skype meeting calls instead.

My company announced this last week. We are still trying to figure out what constitutes essential travel, but all travel (including domestic) now has to be approved by executive level management. Also, any employee uncomfortable traveling can choose not to do so, even if the travel is deemed essential.

 

[DisneyKhormid]

Sorry for the people going through this but we cant assume that what's going on in Italy will happen here or elsewhere. South Korea and German are good examples of that. Germany deaths are zero as of this morning and they have over a thousand cases and South Korea as the second most cases for most of this outbreak and minimal deaths in comparison. When it comes to your trips it's best to do what you personally feel comfortable with but for people to guarantee things will be bad in the US is a reach at this point.

 

[Colleen27]

Sorry for the people going through this but we cant assume that what's going on in Italy will happen here or elsewhere. South Korea and German are good examples of that. Germany deaths are zero as of this morning and they have over a thousand cases and South Korea as the second most cases for most of this outbreak and minimal deaths in comparison. When it comes to your trips it's best to do what you personally feel comfortable with but for people to guarantee things will be bad in the US is a reach at this point.

South Korea is probably the closest thing we have to an accurate picture of the mortality rate, because they've been the most aggressive about testing a wide swath of the population rather than just those with symptoms or known, direct exposure. But I'm sure age distribution in the countries dealing with this has a big impact too; South Korea is a much younger nation than Italy, and the fatality rate varies so dramatically by age that aging countries are bound to have a tougher time of it.

 

[morgan98]

Sorry for the people going through this but we cant assume that what's going on in Italy will happen here or elsewhere. South Korea and German are good examples of that. Germany deaths are zero as of this morning and they have over a thousand cases and South Korea as the second most cases for most of this outbreak and minimal deaths in comparison. When it comes to your trips it's best to do what you personally feel comfortable with but for people to guarantee things will be bad in the US is a reach at this point.

Italy has one of the world's oldest populations, so you are right you probably cannot compare. But we have had more than our share of deaths here in the US. All you need if for the virus to take hold in a nursing home or in some other vulnerable part of the population. You may get it and be fine but you can give it to someone who may not be as lucky.

 

[Praying Colonel]

DS is scheduled to fly to Japan on the 25th to teach English for a year. His company is keeping them updated and it's still a "go" at this point. Mainly he's trying to avoid getting sick before he's scheduled to travel, so he's implementing Sheldon Cooper-level precautions.

 

[AlohaNow]

We have a deposit on DCL for fall break in October and PIF is June 30, so we still have time and are taking a ‘wait and see’ approach. When SWA opens their schedule through October later this week I will still go ahead and book our air to San Diego on points as I had planned to do. Other relatives have DCL booked for late July and their PIF is March 27. I have a feeling they will cancel, as my mid-70s parents are a part of that sailing group. We are also in the midst of planning a camping trip to Mesa Verde in Colorado for July. I don’t think we would end up cancelling that for any reason. The bad joke in our house right now is that it is our ‘Red Dawn, head for the hills’ trip.

 

[lorimay]

We decided to cut a trip to Italy out of our plans for May.
We have a Transatlantic cruise with Disney coming up and we were going to fly from Barcelona to Rome for 5 days after the cruise.
We decided to not risk Italy because of fear of being quarantined when we try to get home.
I called Alitalia, they are not letting you cancel yet for May travel

 

[RamblingMad]

There was a recent study done of the cases in Italy - average age of the people that contracted the virus - 60
Average age of the people that died after contracting the virus - 80
Obviously, tragic - any way you slice it, but it does tell a tale about Corona ( especially as opposed to the flu)

If you use South Korea’s numbers, it’s about 6x worse than the flu. If the flu kills about 25 thousand people in the US each year, I’d expect this to kill a more than 120 thousand.

 

[jtino1975]

I am not one to walk around with a mask or anything like that but we want to go on our first trip to LA in June and are hesitating to book. Not scared of LA in particular, just being in an airport, plane and even crowded attractions.

Things could be way better by then or they could get worse.

5 years ago DS16 was sick for a year with an extremely rare illness. His doctor said he guarantees we won’t find another person like him for the rest of our lives. You just never know.

Anyone else hesitating to travel?

We have our annual family vacation to Disneyworld booked for end of July, I have no intentions of cancelling unless I am forced to... JUST KEEP YOUR HANDS CLEAN, WIPE DOWN YOUR SURFACES ON THE AIRPLANE, AND DO NOT TOUCH YOUR FACE... Have a great vacation!!

 

[godisney14]

Italy has one of the world's oldest populations, so you are right you probably cannot compare. But we have had more than our share of deaths here in the US. All you need if for the virus to take hold in a nursing home or in some other vulnerable part of the population. You may get it and be fine but you can give it to someone who may not be as lucky.

Germany’s median age is approximately the same as Italy, about 44.5yo. The fact that Germany is reporting 0 deaths in ~1,200 cases is very strange to me. That is statistically impossible given what we’re seeing elsewhere. Also, given the fact that Germans are known to smoke a lot more than their peers, I find it hard to believe.
South Korea’s median age is 41.5, and so some difference but not a whole lot.

Case count in Germany has been doubling every 2.5 days exactly since their first handful of cases on March 1, which is what has been the case pretty much everywhere in the early stages.

Here’s another aspect of all this that isn’t talked about as much. In the unfortunate chance one is hospitalized (worst case pneumonia), depending on insurance coverage, you could wind up with a large medical bill. These other countries such as Korea and in Europe, they have universal healthcare.

 

[MrsDuck]

Yes. We are cancelling our Disney trip for Spring Break. Just don't need the risk.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

Germany’s median age is approximately the same as Italy, about 44.5yo. The fact that Germany is reporting 0 deaths in ~1,200 cases is very strange to me. That is statistically impossible given what we’re seeing elsewhere. Also, given the fact that Germans are known to smoke a lot more than their peers, I find it hard to believe.
South Korea’s median age is 41.5, and so some difference but not a whole lot.

Case count in Germany has been doubling every 2.5 days exactly since their first handful of cases on March 1, which is what has been the case pretty much everywhere in the early stages.

Here’s another aspect of all this that isn’t talked about as much. In the unfortunate chance one is hospitalized (worst case pneumonia), depending on insurance coverage, you could wind up with a large medical bill. These other countries such as Korea and in Europe, they have universal healthcare.

Germany is also only reporting 18 recovered and 9 in serious condition, which tells me that their data is not current or that they are using their own metrics for this. Either way, it is not statistically possible for them to have almost 1200 cases with zero mortality and only 9 people in critical care.

 

[jsmith]

f you use South Korea’s numbers, it’s about 6x worse than the flu. If the flu kills about 25 thousand people in the US each year, I’d expect this to kill a more than 120 thousand.

Im sorry that's completely inaccurate. Currently-91534March2020 the reported death rate in South Korea is 50 of 7478 confirmed cases That is a .6 percent death rate. Probably pretty accurate since They are very proactive on testing and are catching cases that might other wise have been missed. If the flu which has a CFR of about 1 percent kills 25 thousand you would expect COVID 19 to kill about 15,000..

 

[BuckeyeBama]

Im sorry that's completely inaccurate. Currently-91534March2020 the reported death rate in South Korea is 50 of 7478 confirmed cases That is a .6 percent death rate. Probably pretty accurate since They are very proactive on testing and are catching cases that might other wise have been missed. If the flu which has a CFR of about 1 percent kills 25 thousand you would expect COVID 19 to kill about 15,000..

Everything that I have read indicates that the typical mortality rate for the seasonal flu is .1%. It can get as high as 1%, but in those years the US sees far more fatalities.

That said, I am hopeful that the .6% reported in South Korea is high.

 

[wvjules]

Wife's firm (Big 4) has restricted all non-essential travel worldwide temporarily. Needless to say, her scheduled trip to India in a couple weeks is now off and she'll be doing Skype meeting calls instead.

My firm is the same. I read that an employee of a B4 in Tyson's Corner, VA has tested positive now. I'm guessing that B4 mandatory (when possible) telework is right around the corner.

 

[DopeyDame]

Im sorry that's completely inaccurate. Currently-91534March2020 the reported death rate in South Korea is 50 of 7478 confirmed cases That is a .6 percent death rate. Probably pretty accurate since They are very proactive on testing and are catching cases that might other wise have been missed. If the flu which has a CFR of about 1 percent kills 25 thousand you would expect COVID 19 to kill about 15,000..

I'm sorry, but YOUR stats are completely inaccurate. The flu fatality rate in the US is ~0.1% in a bad year. ( https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html)
That's a whole order of magnitude (ie,10 times) less than your number, and as @RamblingMad said, about 6 times better than the best case estimate of COVID-19.
Facts matter.

 

[jsmith]

That said, I am hopeful that the .6% reported in South Korea is high.

The 1 percent may be a world wide figure vice US only-i will have to check on that. .6 percent is definately more optimistic that the current world wide estimate of 3.2 percent but that is driven by high percentages in Italy and Iran for the most part.

 

[Colleen27]

Im sorry that's completely inaccurate. Currently-91534March2020 the reported death rate in South Korea is 50 of 7478 confirmed cases That is a .6 percent death rate. Probably pretty accurate since They are very proactive on testing and are catching cases that might other wise have been missed. If the flu which has a CFR of about 1 percent kills 25 thousand you would expect COVID 19 to kill about 15,000..

The average CFR for seasonal flu in the U.S. is 0.1%. Some years are worse than others, but that's the number health authorities are using as typical for flu, which makes it fair to say that based on S. Korea's numbers, COVID19 is 6x deadlier. It also appears to be more contagious so far, with each flu sufferer infecting 1.3 people compared to a preliminary number of 2.2 for COVID19.