Hurricane Irma?

[nikkyluvsmickey]

That wasnt very clear i was asking which of those seems the most likely?

 

[AngiTN]

Hoping I can have a serious discussion here. I don't really want to hear "nothing to worry about". I just want to make an intelligent decision.

I'm from Wisconsin, and we don't have hurricanes. I've never even personally experienced a tornado. I have no idea what to realistically expect *IF* Irma hits Orlando/Florida.

We arrive Friday night the 8th. 7 nights at bonnet Creek and then 3 nights on the gulf.

Will we be safe in the condo? My daughter is talking about going to stay with her boyfriend in Tampa if it does hit, but I've read it can be dangerous to try to evacuate too.

I don't mind dealing with rain, wind. I'll be disappointed if we have to cancel plans to see my daughter perform, but my real worry is safety. My grandson and his mom are coming along and I don't want them in the middle of a Harvey type situation.

I know it's too early to predict where this will end up, but I want to be prepared for if it does. Should I order a bunch of stuff to have it shipped to the hotel? And besides the obvious water, what? Do hotels generally have water and power?

My trip is not really cancelable. I could cancel the flights but I don't have any other vacation available to take. Condo was bought on eBay and I'm passed the cancellation period for the gulf stay.

I looked into trip insurance but I'm not sure if any of them really apply for what I need. It seems like this won't hit until Sunday or Monday so it's not like my flight will be cancelled.

I was in Disney a few years ago during a hurricane warning. It ended up just being a bad rain/wind storm that didn't last long. I guess I was always under the impression that hurricanes didn't really affect Orlando because it's offshore but it looks like this one could be different.

I've been following Mike's weather page- spaghettimodels.com

You can't even compare Harvey to anything else. The problems with Harvey were not actually hurricane problems. They were problems due to there being no additional weather patterns in the area to steer the rain away once it came in. The rain stalled out and got stuck. This isn't going to be something that will happen in this case. There are other weather patterns out there that will steer Irma and it will not stall out and dump 50" of rain.

Also, something I learned from years and years of watching Hurricane coverages, and believe it or not, something that does impact us here even in totally land locked TN. There's a good side and a bad side to a Hurricane. And if the Hurricane is in the Atlantic, Orlando is in the "good side" of the Hurricane, provided it's moving up the coast, not across the peninsula. This is why Matthew was nothing in Orlando. And why when we evaluated making our trip when Matthew was due to hit, or cancelling, we moved the trip up so we arrived prior to Matthew and knew we'd be fine. Rain and the heaviest of winds are on the East side of a Hurricane. The areas West of them really experience very little in the way of bad weather. Not at the distance Orlando is from the coast. If the Hurricane were the same distance away but in the Gulf, it would, or could, be very different situation. But in watching where Matthew was going, how it was churning, I was expecting exactly what Orlando got. I know why Orlando officials and Disney (along with all the other theme parks) erred on the side of caution but it was just that, being overly cautious because they can take a last minute turn, you are dealing with nature and it is impossible to predict with 100% accuracy till it's there. But even as someone who doesn't gamble, nothing indicated to me that it was going to be of any impact in Orlando.

So, the question is, will Irma come further inland than Matthew? Historically they do not. It's just the way currants move the air around in that area. Sort of the same way Orlando always gets pop up storms moving in over the course of the afternoon, it's just part of the weather patterns in the area. Those same patterns are part of what make it hard for a hurricane to move over Orlando. Can they? Yes. But from the Atlantic? Odds of one moving in for a direct hit are unlikely. Just know they are very cautious and whatever they do, you'll be fine.

 

[AngiTN]

Actually, take it from a hotelier, that is the best way to get the non-urgent messages to everyone. Not everyone has TVs on all the time ( they read etc), some are out of their rooms, some are having showers, sleeping etc for the minute or two the message would be on. A vouce mail on the phone reaches every room. And it would be really annoying to most be to have a constantly repeating message on TV interrupting your program.

Emergency message are a different issue since there is a need to act immediately. None of the messages during Matthew were emergency messages. They were storm status updates, Orange County curfew updates, availability of food, reduced housekeeping services and such. If there had been true emergencies they would have gotten out the message differently. Really, a guest just had to occasionally check the light. That's all we did and it worked well.

Phone is the only way we'd get a message at Disney. We never turn on our TV while on vacation. Though honestly, even being there during Matthew we didn't need a message on the phone from Disney. We got the info easily right from the staff.

Besides, I'm not sure how anyone could ever miss the blinking red light on the phone? Even in broad daylight it's brighter than Rudolph's nose

 

[Jennasis]

Oh man. It figures. Hurricane possibilities...you can blame me. It's because we're going to Orlando on the 9th LOL.

We are staying at SSR but are not doing the parks. We actually have tickets to Discovery Cove on the 10th but I am concerned we may have to move that reservation to another day. Our plans for the other days were Bush Gardens, Aquatica and Sea World, all of which wouldn't be feasible during a hurricane on the 10th.

We will make the best of it. My concern will be our Discovery Cove day on the 10t needing to be moved.

 

[erinch]

You might enjoy reading this first-hand report from Hurricane Charley

http://allears.net/news/hurricane.htm

If I were flying in and worried about groceries, I'd consider paying to check a suitcase filled with supplies and strike that worry off my list .

 

[TNickell27]

I fly in the afternoon of the 9th. I should be okay right? I have Epcot planned for the 10th. What's the best park for heavy rain? If i have to, I could do MK on Sunday and do Epcot Tuesday the 12th (but that would mean losing my BOG res )

 

[DLM1980]

Phone is the only way we'd get a message at Disney. We never turn on our TV while on vacation. Though honestly, even being there during Matthew we didn't need a message on the phone from Disney. We got the info easily right from the staff.

Besides, I'm not sure how anyone could ever miss the blinking red light on the phone? Even in broad daylight it's brighter than Rudolph's nose

I remember you and I having completely different experiences when in Epcot last year in regards to communication about the park closing, you said that announcements were made over the loud speaker and I said nothing was said, or at least I didn't hear anything specifically that I was inside a building and did not hear em.

With that said I expect you had again a completely different experience as staff did not say anything to us because they couldn't, being at a Value or Moderate your rooms led outside so you were stuck in your room at a Deluxe you were free to move within the corridors so staff could tell you things at will.

So I'm again going to assume that you just had a better phone cause the hotel phones I had the light didn't light up the room when it was flashing, you had to be looking at it to see it was on during the day.

So again, any and all ways to communicate would have been better than just one. Send the message out over the TV (via a scroll and/or a dedicated channel) and via voicemail, but if your gonna do it via voicemail make the damn phone ring!

 

[hamilkm]

We are headed down Sept 6-13. We aren't super worried about the storm itself. Disney is safe and we will be okay with a day in the room. My only concern is our flight out on the 13th. I have a can't miss appointment on the 14th. We were contemplating renting a car from MCO to turn in at our home airport with hopes that we can turn it in at MCO if our flight is good. We just don't want to be stranded. Any thoughts?

 

[Maggie'sMom]

I am due to be onboard disney dream on the 8th so if they dont cancel the cruise and reroute us do u think it is more probable they will take us to mexico,jamaica or grand caymen to avoid irma?

There just isn't enough time on a 3 night cruise to make it to any of those 3 destinations and get back. If the forecasts I'm seeing hold true for a few more days, the best guess is that cruise will get cancelled.

 

[DLM1980]

We are headed down Sept 6-13. We aren't super worried about the storm itself. Disney is safe and we will be okay with a day in the room. My only concern is our flight out on the 13th. I have a can't miss appointment on the 14th. We were contemplating renting a car from MCO to turn in at our home airport with hopes that we can turn it in at MCO if our flight is good. We just don't want to be stranded. Any thoughts?

I've picked up at mco when the reservation had been at Disney with no problem. I suspect you would be just charged for the day and that's it but it's always best to call your car company

 

[North of Mouse]

It is amazing to me how many people with trips planned for FL in the next 5-10 days are asking if they will be alright. Nobody knows, so no one can give assurance of this. Not a scare tactic at all, but having been in some bad hurricanes in south LA, (also in Sept.'96 in Raleigh, NC) I would not be consciously going there while a large hurricane has formed and may/may not hit the southeast coast.

Everyone is (on SE coast especially) cautiously watching the movement of this storm, but until a few more days pass and it gets closer, all anyone can do is guess, watch updates and hope it turns N. and out to sea.

A pp mentioned maybe needing to buy trip insurance. It's too late to buy trip insurance for a hurricane that's already been named - must be purchased earlier.

 

[trevelbond]

I fly in the afternoon of the 9th. I should be okay right? I have Epcot planned for the 10th. What's the best park for heavy rain? If i have to, I could do MK on Sunday and do Epcot Tuesday the 12th (but that would mean losing my BOG res )

I'm in the same boat. Flying in on Saturday the 9th from SFO. I don't much care if I lose a day once I'm in Florida, I just want to get there.

 

[nikkyluvsmickey]

 

[hamilkm]

I've picked up at mco when the reservation had been at Disney with no problem. I suspect you would be just charged for the day and that's it but it's always best to call your car company

Thanks. I'm at work today so will call tomorrow. I figured it can't hurt to have a car.

 

[erinch]

We are headed down Sept 6-13. We aren't super worried about the storm itself. Disney is safe and we will be okay with a day in the room. My only concern is our flight out on the 13th. I have a can't miss appointment on the 14th. We were contemplating renting a car from MCO to turn in at our home airport with hopes that we can turn it in at MCO if our flight is good. We just don't want to be stranded. Any thoughts?

This summer we rented a car from Enterprise in Albuquerque and turned it in in Whitefish, MT. There was about a 700 one way destination charge. As you plan out all scenarios, are you on the East Coast? It is way too soon to tell. But some of the scenarios could make driving miserable. You might want to plan out every contingency. Most of which will never happen.

 

[Amy___M]

We are headed down Sept 6-13. We aren't super worried about the storm itself. Disney is safe and we will be okay with a day in the room. My only concern is our flight out on the 13th. I have a can't miss appointment on the 14th. We were contemplating renting a car from MCO to turn in at our home airport with hopes that we can turn it in at MCO if our flight is good. We just don't want to be stranded. Any thoughts?

If it swings into the gulf and then back again, you might see an issue. But I think that is pretty unlikely at this point. If it hits Orlando directly or slides up the east coast, it should be past Orlando by the 12th (unless it completely stalls out, but it's pretty fast). I think we all have to wait till Wed or so to see what it does and then quickly change plans.

 

[avic77]

We'll be there 9/6-9/17 and have MNSSHP tickets for 9/10. If they have to cancel that night, don't think getting tix for Tues will be impossible, but have a feeling that party will be super crowded. Would love if they went ahead and called it on Wed/Thurs to let people choose between 9/7 or 12.

We're staying at Wydham Bonnet Creek and haven't seen much on hurricane procedures (remove patio furniture and keep curtains closed)

We too have tickets for 9/10 and I dont think 9/12 will work for us and we leave on 9/15
I am going to watch it for the week and see if I need to change anything last minute. I really dont wanna miss the Halloween party

 

[hamilkm]

We are in Alabama, so as long as it doesn't go in the gulf driving conditions will hopefully be fine. We are mainly just worried about cancelled flights. I am pricing the rental to be picked up on the 6th when we arrive at MCO and to be turned back in at the Birmingham airport. In finding good prices for this. I'm just hoping if flight goes as planned that we can turn back in at MCO instead. I will call and talk to them tomorrow when I'm off work.

 

[Alice Hart]

I am not a scaredy person but looking at the models it almost exclusively shows that Irma is going to eat up all of middle to northern Florida at this point. I understand wishful thinking but you cant be daft when it comes to your safety.

 

[OneTrueKing]

I am due to be onboard disney dream on the 8th so if they dont cancel the cruise and reroute us do u think it is more probable they will take us to mexico,jamaica or grand caymen to avoid irma?

We are booked for the same trip and I keep searching for some kind of clue what's Disney will do in this scenario but even though the models are keeping consistent with the trail pattern, Irma could change and at the last minute curve back east. Ugh, I just wish we weren't in limbo :/