Future Trends for VGC resale?

[ajpruett]

I'm in contract now for a dream contract. Disney better leave me alone after Poly ROFR!

 

[intamin]

I'm honestly surprised about this. They have a giant waitlist of people willing to pay direct point money. You would think it'd be an easy $50-$70 a point for them to just ROFR most contracts and sell them direct to get the wait list down.

I think it has to do with the sheer amount of capital it would require from Disney to ROFR VGC. You see them ROFRing Poly and VGF at 150 or so and then they're going to turn around and sell these points for 200 at minimum after incentives, probably closer to 220-230 so I'd argue the differential between direct and resale VGC still isn't enough to make up the fact that they could buy twice as many VGF points with a similar price differential between resale and direct. They obviously know the demand is there, but it's rarely worth it for them to ROFR.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I think it has to do with the sheer amount of capital it would require from Disney to ROFR VGC. You see them ROFRing Poly and VGF at 150 or so and then they're going to turn around and sell these points for 200 at minimum after incentives, probably closer to 220-230 so I'd argue the differential between direct and resale VGC still isn't enough to make up the fact that they could buy twice as many VGF points with a similar price differential between resale and direct. They obviously know the demand is there, but it's rarely worth it for them to ROFR.

But they could ROFR the big contracts at $220ish and convert them into lots of smaller $310 contracts for people like me. Seriously though, is there anything stopping them from signing some sort of term sheet with a direct buyer (or two or three) that gives them 30-45 days to fulfill it and then scooping up the points in ROFR after having resale buyers on the hook?

 

[intamin]

But they could ROFR the big contracts at $220ish and convert them into lots of smaller $310 contracts for people like me. Seriously though, is there anything stopping them from signing some sort of term sheet with a direct buyer (or two or three) that gives them 30-45 days to fulfill it and then scooping up the points in ROFR after having resale buyers on the hook?

I mean the argument still stands though, why tie up 220 dollars to make 90, when you could ROFR like a OKW for 70 dollars and turn it around and sell it for 135 based on current incentives and have a 65 dollar per point gain minimum? You could ROFR 3 OKW points for the same price as 1 VGC point and you’d end up gaining 195 dollars in profit instead of 90.

I’m not saying there aren’t buyers because obviously you and I would buy it direct for 310 but from a business standpoint it doesn’t make as much sense.

 

[mathgeek]

I'm honestly surprised about this. They have a giant waitlist of people willing to pay direct point money. You would think it'd be an easy $50-$70 a point for them to just ROFR most contracts and sell them direct to get the wait list down.

I asked my guide if I could be added to the waitlist two years ago and was told it doesn't exist anymore. So I added on two 50 point contracts resale.

 

[CastAStone]

I asked my guide if I could be added to the waitlist two years ago and was told it doesn't exist anymore. So I added on two 50 point contracts resale.

Others here have also reported that the formal waitlist is gone, and it’s more about having a good relationship with a punctilious guide so not only are they the first guide to notice when VGC points come available, they also call you first.

 

[Rex1993]

Others here have reported that the formal waitlist is gone, and it’s more about having a good relationship with a punctilious guide so not only are they the first guide to notice when VGC points come available, they also call you first.

That is my understanding as well.

 

[JoshF]

Why would you want to buy VGC direct considering there are no restrictions and you can save $50+ per point resale?

 

[ClaraOswald]

I would buy a small contract (50 pts) direct if it popped up since they are so hard to find (especially in a specific use year) and if one does magically pop up, it usually isn't much cheaper than direct anyway.

 

[Rex1993]

I would buy a small contract (50 pts) direct if it popped up since they are so hard to find (especially in a specific use year) and if one does magically pop up, it usually isn't much cheaper than direct anyway.

I don't know what your use year is but there is a 56pt contract listed right now at $280/pt.

 

[JoshF]

Addonitis is real... Why do I fond myself perusing the VGC listings when I just bought VDH and haven't even stayed there yet? I did book my first 1BR to take my DS.

Last time I stayed at VGC I loved the location, lobby & pool. I wasn't a fan of the rooms. They seemed pretty outdated to me and I prefer something more modern. Hopefully after a VDH stay I will stop yearning for VGC.

Getting back to the topic of this thread - I'm sure I will buy something if prices do drop.

 

[Royal Consort]

Getting back to the topic of this thread - I'm sure I will buy something if prices do drop.

I'd say that prices have dropped. VGC is back to where it was sitting in 2020.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Why would you want to buy VGC direct considering there are no restrictions and you can save $50+ per point resale?

I can’t answer for everyone, to me $25-30 is easy to justify as a premium for the option to use your points everywhere and, if you don’t already have it, secure access to direct membership perks. I personally think Disney will keep finding ways to make resale points less valuable. At some resorts, I’d pay more than $25-30 delta, but at VGF I probably wouldn’t because It would be insane to use those points anywhere other than VGC, so who cares if I can’t use them at VDH, etc.

So far, even though they aren’t selling, most VGC sellers want more than $260/pt for smaller contracts, some as high as $280. If I could get VGC direct with 2023 points, the delta would be less than $20 on a small contract and the closing costs probably further narrow the gap.

 

[intamin]

I can’t answer for everyone, to me $25-30 is easy to justify as a premium for the option to use your points everywhere and, if you don’t already have it, secure access to direct membership perks. I personally think Disney will keep finding ways to make resale points less valuable. At some resorts, I’d pay more than $25-30 delta, but at VGF I probably wouldn’t because It would be insane to use those points anywhere other than VGC, so who cares if I can’t use them at VDH, etc.

So far, even though they aren’t selling, most VGC sellers want more than $260/pt for smaller contracts, some as high as $280. If I could get VGC direct with 2023 points, the delta would be less than $20 on a small contract and the closing costs probably further narrow the gap.

Especially if it's a smaller contract, 25-30 per point on a 50 pointer is only 1250-1500 dollars to be able to use those points at RIV, CFW or VDH. Obviously you'd never hope to have to do so but it's not horrible if you do every once in awhile

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Especially if it's a smaller contract, 25-30 per point on a 50 pointer is only 1250-1500 dollars to be able to use those points at RIV, CFW or VDH. Obviously you'd never hope to have to do so but it's not horrible if you do every once in awhile

I can imagine a 2-4 year stretch during Disneyland Forward (if it happens) that both VGC and VDH (and the whole DLR area) might not be so appealing. Maybe even longer for VDH, depending on how much demolition and construction is planned along Disneyland Dr.

I can’t imagine any scenario where my family skips Disneyland for 2 to 3 years straight, but I am not going to be as excited about taking extended visits if the sound of jackhammers are everywhere.

 

[Rex1993]

I'd say that prices have dropped. VGC is back to where it was sitting in 2020.

I closed on my second VGC resale last month and it was $50pp less than my first contract back in 2021. Of course for the 2021 contract I horrendously overpaid but we have done three trips to VGC since that purchase.

 

[intamin]

I closed on my second VGC resale last month and it was $50pp less than my first contract back in 2021. Of course for the 2021 contract I horrendously overpaid but we have done three trips to VGC since that purchase.

Honestly this is one of the understated perks of buying direct is everyone who bought the same resort as you got the same deals as you had. You also don't feel bad when you look at the ROFR thread and start comparing everyone's deals to yours But I'm in the same boat, I should've been more aggressive with my resale Aulani contract, definitely could've saved a couple thousand dollars at least but in the grand scheme of things, it's likely insignificant. Will probably pay Disney 445,000 dollars instead of 443,000 dollars when all is said and done .

 

[Rex1993]

Will probably pay Disney 445,000 dollars instead of 443,000 dollars when all is said and done .

One half of 1%... That's a rounding error!

 

[CastAStone]

Why would you want to buy VGC direct considering there are no restrictions and you can save $50+ per point resale?

If someone mostly goes to Disneyland, resale VGC can’t be used at VDH and vice versa. Makes direct significantly more compelling than a mostly WDW visitor being locked out of some smaller proportion of resorts at WDW.

 

[JoshF]

If someone mostly goes to Disneyland, resale VGC can’t be used at VDH and vice versa. Makes direct significantly more compelling than a mostly WDW visitor being locked out of some smaller proportion of resorts at WDW.

Thanks, that makes sense. You always have very good knowledge on this stuff.