Europe cruises/travel summer 2020 -Anyone else thinking of cancelling??

[GatorMomInNC]

I'm 55 with asthma, so I guess that makes me one of those middle aged with co morbidities? 1-2% doesn't sound like much, but I've bought lottery tickets with much, much lower chances, and somewhere deep down I must think there is a chance I'm going to win that lottery... But if only 15% or so of US population were to get this virus (about what happened on the Diamond Princess), wouldn't the hospitals be overwhelmed?

 

[Intr3pid]

Why do healthy people wear masks

I hope you're wrong. All this drama over a virus with a low mortality rate. You would think by the click-bait stories we were talking about the ebola virus and not a virus that kills 1-2% of elderly or middle-aged people with co-morbidities. How many adults and kids have died from this year's flu? The more I watch the news the more irritated I get with the whole thing. I have my own ideas about what the agenda is.

Normal flu's mortality rate for a population of 300+ million is less than 0.007%.

But, the mortality rates are not the issue - it's the scale of the massive cruise ship virus incubator. One misstep, and you will end up with a Diamond Princess - quarantined and locked down for weeks.

I too hope I'm wrong. We have this year's much cheaper Iceland cruise on the tap. Maybe the summer clears up the air (no pun), or Northern Europe somehow lies too far north for the virus.

But, I also know that Magic hasn't yet left for Europe...

 

[Pandy220]

We're cruising out of Copenhagen in August and I'm not cancelling. I'm expecting the virus to slow down in the Summer.

How would the virus “slow down” if a vaccine can’t be created until 12-18 months?

 

[Intr3pid]

How would the virus “slow down” if a vaccine can’t be created until 12-18 months?

If it's spreading like a flu, there may be reasons. No guarantees though...:
https://time.com/5790880/coronavirus-warm-weather-summer/

 

[mmmears]

Well, we have our first community case here in Oregon about 11 miles from my house, and another two cases were announced for Washington state. Since its here, I'll wait until after we catch it and then continue our business as usual?

https://www.oregonlive.com/news/2020/02/coronavirus-appears-in-oregon.html
https://komonews.com/news/local/two-new-cases-of-coronavirus-including-student-in-snohomish-county
We have no plans to cancel our trip camping in June, the beach in July or our October WDW trip. Unless the country shuts down there just isn't any point to since we are just as in danger here now.

Yep. I'm in the same club. New case today, not far at all from home.

I'm 55 with asthma, so I guess that makes me one of those middle aged with co morbidities? 1-2% doesn't sound like much, but I've bought lottery tickets with much, much lower chances, and somewhere deep down I must think there is a chance I'm going to win that lottery... But if only 15% or so of US population were to get this virus (about what happened on the Diamond Princess), wouldn't the hospitals be overwhelmed?

Right there with you. And I feel the same way - it's easy to say "well that will only kill other people not me" but some of us are those other people with risks like asthma and there isn't much solace in hearing that it's not bad unless you are you. And yes, the hospitals getting overwhelmed and healthcare breaking down is the real worry. The mortality rate goes through the roof when that happens.

Normal flu's mortality rate for a population of 300+ million is less than 0.007%.

But, the mortality rates are not the issue - it's the scale of the massive cruise ship virus incubator. One misstep, and you will end up with a Diamond Princess - quarantined and locked down for weeks.

I too hope I'm wrong. We have this year's much cheaper Iceland cruise on the tap. Maybe the summer clears up the air (no pun), or Northern Europe somehow lies too far north for the virus.

But, I also know that Magic hasn't yet left for Europe...

I'm booked on the same cruise, and I, too, really hope I'm wrong. As for N. Europe, my DD is in Norway right now and they have cases there (although so far they were all imported).

 

[Karin1984]

Well, we have our first community case here in Oregon about 11 miles from my house, and another two cases were announced for Washington state. Since its here, I'll wait until after we catch it and then continue our business as usual?

That you are near a case doesn't mean you will also get it. There have been cases where the husband did get the virus but the partner and children did not.

And as for proximity my country is so small, every case is near me! One is 15 Miles, the other 70 Miles. The first one is at home and the results for her family will come in today. The daycare center of her younger child will close as the mother had visited recently. For the other case, they have localized the people who have been in close contact with the man, and they are monitored.

Our CDC doesn't worry about an outbreak as in Italy, because better preparation and they know patient 0.

 

[cwis]

So France and Charles de Gaulle, the first part of our trip, are also looking bad
now.. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...oming-europe-struggles-to-contain-coronavirus

Thanks for the article. I live in France (close to Disneyland Paris) and in the news they say they are doing MASSIVE interviews to find out every possible person that has possibly be in contact with one of the infected people. It appears this is not something that was done as meticulously by the Italian. Rates of new cases have increased in the last few days. Let's hope we reach an inflection point soon…

 

[mousefan73]

Hate to be a spoiler but I am guessing there are just as many non-reported / non- tested cases in the US as reported cases in Europe. So this issue is not a European thing. I am in Germany and the news here which is very reliable just had experts on. The fact that the CDC only had 5 national places to test us just dumbfounding. In Europe hospitals do their own local testing. Everyone is saying the numbers reported in the US are too low based on patterns/ travel behavior.
Today two more cases on the westcoast from community transfer. No China/ Italy/ European travel history.

the US is no less connected to China than rest of the world. before this virus raised flags I am guessing 1000s traveled to/from Wutan to/ from the US. Seeing how this spreads so fast it cannot be nobody in the US the past 2 months were not infected

I am just guessing most had a minor flu/ cough and that is it. Here in Bavaria we had 16 cases and all recovered with no real symptoms.

I believe the CDCs policy was to only test those who recently traveled to China and had symptoms. Well this virus was long around before that policy. End of December I believe. .

Another issue also troubling is how many In US had no legal required paid sick time off. Many in low income jobs- pay check to pay check will still work with those symptoms. Who calls in sick for a low cöugh and many don’t realize they have a temperature unless really high. Or those who have no health insurance? And It‘s been commented often that I can’t afford not to work for 2 weeks. At least here if the government forces people in quarantine due to public health reasons, employers or health insurance have to continue pay.

 

[Canadian Girl]

Canadian March Break is starting in the next couple of weeks and we are booked to go to WDW on DVC points as are many Canadians. Tickets are non refundable and it’s too late to bank points etc as they will now go into holding and of course, flights have big penalties for cancellation. I would cancel if I could but unless I want to lose thousands, it’s not really feasible. I realize Disney is a business, but wish there were other options. We are really not comfortable travelling and being in big crowds with strangers at this time.

 

[ladyofthetramp]

Hate to be a spoiler but I am guessing there are just as many non-reported / non- tested cases in the US as reported cases in Europe. So this issue is not a European thing. I am in Germany and the news here which is very reliable just had experts on. The fact that the CDC only had 5 national places to test us just dumbfounding. In Europe hospitals do their own local testing. Everyone is saying the numbers reported in the US are too low based on patterns/ travel behavior.
Today two more cases on the westcoast from community transfer. No China/ Italy/ European travel history.

the US is no less connected to China than rest of the world. before this virus raised flags I am guessing 1000s traveled to/from Wutan to/ from the US. Seeing how this spreads so fast it cannot be nobody in the US the past 2 months were not infected

I am just guessing most had a minor flu/ cough and that is it. Here in Bavaria we had 16 cases and all recovered with no real symptoms.

I believe the CDCs policy was to only test those who recently traveled to China and had symptoms. Well this virus was long around before that policy. End of December I believe. .

Another issue also troubling is how many In US had no legal required paid sick time off. Many in low income jobs- pay check to pay check will still work with those symptoms. Who calls in sick for a low cöugh and many don’t realize they have a temperature unless really high. Or those who have no health insurance? And It‘s been commented often that I can’t afford not to work for 2 weeks. At least here if the government forces people in quarantine due to public health reasons, employers or health insurance have to continue pay.

this... so true. The US claims to be the best. Unfortunately we are not, not at this.

 

[smmco]

Normal flu's mortality rate for a population of 300+ million is less than 0.007%.

But, the mortality rates are not the issue - it's the scale of the massive cruise ship virus incubator. One misstep, and you will end up with a Diamond Princess - quarantined and locked down for weeks.

I too hope I'm wrong. We have this year's much cheaper Iceland cruise on the tap. Maybe the summer clears up the air (no pun), or Northern Europe somehow lies too far north for the virus.

But, I also know that Magic hasn't yet left for Europe...

We really don't know the mortality rate because we don't know how many people have the virus. I'll go back to my were not testing for it. I don't think the virus is deadly enough for all the hype. It's not worth a global recession. People will lose their savings, their jobs, their homes, their ability to travel, kids coming out of college won't be able to find work, the list goes on.

Maybe people on these boards are too young or weren't affected by the recession in 2008, but it was ugly. My husband was laid off and had to work in another state for 5 years. My BIL lost his 6 figure job and his house. He and his wife and three small kids had to move in with her parents for two years. He was out of work for over a year. Many of my neighbors were laid off, foreclosures everywhere. I don't want to see this again. People need to calm the heck down. Hopefully, the market will stabilize next week.

 

[cwis]

As people are panicking everywhere I start to wonder if there is a point the tourism industry will collapse, like it did in 2001.

 

[mom4fun]

Why do healthy people wear masks

I hope you're wrong. All this drama over a virus with a low mortality rate. You would think by the click-bait stories we were talking about the ebola virus and not a virus that kills 1-2% of elderly or middle-aged people with co-morbidities. How many adults and kids have died from this year's flu? The more I watch the news the more irritated I get with the whole thing. I have my own ideas about what the agenda is.

I would love to hear your take on it. Things do seem very strange.

 

[Gentry2004]

There is a very good chance that Magic stays in North America for the summer.

Maybe cruise out of NYC - though nowhere is safe for cruise ships the way things are unfolding.

I hadn't thought about this, but I agree keeping the Magic over here is a possiblity. We are in unchartered territory. I may never get my husband on another cruise ship! He was already very germophobic about regular flu/noro.

 

[SirDuff]

Just to point out that what people are talking about is the case-fatality rate not the mortality rate. The mortality rate has the entire population as the denominator (e.g. the mortality rate due to AIDS is the number of people who died of AIDS of divided by the overall population) whereas the case-fatality rate is the number of people who died of AIDS divided by the estimated number of people with AIDS.

The mortality rate for Covid-19 is teeny tiny. The case-fatality rate is still pretty small but much higher (but really difficult to calculate). It’s the “estimated number of people with the disease” bit of the calculation that makes things so hard.

Just in case people are reading articles and confused by the terms.

I don’t generally deal with communicable diseases but my PhD is in epidemiology.

 

[coloradocutie]

We have 2 weeks before PIF.... I suspect we may see a snowball effect in cases in the upcoming weeks. .

 

[Gentry2004]

We have 2 weeks before PIF.... I suspect we may see a snowball effect in cases in the upcoming weeks. .

Very curious. DH and I have been researching cruises in the future in case we get cancelled, etc. and we can't find a single cruise for the price we paid for this cruise. Nothing has gotten cheaper yet.

 

[smmco]

I would love to hear your take on it. Things do seem very strange.

My thoughts would hit on topics that aren't allowed here.

 

[smmco]

How would the virus “slow down” if a vaccine can’t be created until 12-18 months?

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/flu-virus-fortified-colder-weatherThis is one theory.
It's always winter in one part of the world. We get a basic idea of how bad the flu season is going to be based on how bad it is in Australia. If it acts like the flu it may taper off in the northern hemisphere in the summer and then come back next winter.

 

[nycdisneygal]

How late after PIF can I decide to transfer funds to a future cruise (non concierge). I stil have over 1 month until PIF....