DVC analysis opinions

[Donald is #1]

Hi everyone! Well, the nerd that I am , I am in the process of creating a spreadsheet so that I can track when (or if) I pass the break even point for my DVC membership versus staying at either the WL or AKL. I picked WL & AKL because they are the last 2 resorts that I stayed at prior to buying into the DVC. Anyways, my question is for any of you that have done an analysis like this how did you compare a 1 bedroom to resort room? My current thougts are:
Studio = 1 room at WL or AKL
1 bedroom = ?
2 bedroom = 2 rooms at WL or AKL

I would love to hear your opinions.

Of course my spreadsheet doesn't take into account that I will be doing more WDW vacations now that I have bought into DVC.

 

[NYMomof4]

I think that you might be better comparing the rack rate for the DVC 1 and 2 bdrms that Disney offers to get a better idea. Just a thought

 

[sjdisneywedding]

I dont think I would use the rack rate--those are way out of whack
maybe if you want an extra column to compare rack rates as well just as a nice little piece of info


I just do it comparing what I would have spent for a reg room no matter what category DVC room I stay in. Its hard enough to do because of the fact the number of vacations will never be the same when you own DVC vs if you didnt

then if you start to throw in "well I stayed in a 2 br so thats 2 reg rooms" that throws it off even more if you truly know you would have never paid for 2 reg rooms

again you could have a separate column for that too just for comparing

but I think if you want to realize a true break even then you really have to be objective as to what you would have spent without DVC

 

[casper]

I'm keeping track of my "break even" time as well. Being that I just bought last year and have only taken one trip thus far, it will be a while. But I'm not trying to do it in a way that compares one room vs. another or one resort vs. another. I'm using a cost per night method.

In July I stayed six nights in a two bedroom. With my total cost + maint. fees I paid $3,207.56 per night. But that will go down over time.

In Nov. I will be staying for 8 nights making my total nights thus far 14. That means I paid $1,379.80 per night (for all 14 nights stayed). That includes more maint fees since I added 50 pts.

Sometime in the future I will be able to say I'm paying $100 a night or less for each night I have stayed. At that period in time I will say I have "broken even." But who knows how much a room for cash will cost at that time. Maybe I will feel I have "broken even" way before then.

But I have to say this, the vacation I was able to take with my family, staying in a 2bed, was worth the money already. I'm very happy with my DVC!

 

[cobbler]

I am doing one too, mostly for fun. I do several things.

I have a spreadsheet that compares the room I am booking, say a 1bdrm villa, to the cash rate of that room then I subtract that from the purchase price, so right now I am in the red for a minute. I do have a seperate column that subtracts the cash rate (don't forget to add the tax) for the room from the purchase price and dues paid for that year.

Then in a second sheet I do the same thing above except for using the rack rate through CRO, I use it to compare with an AAA discount. AP rates are getting fewer and not avail at all rooms so at least AAA gives me a pretty good analysis as well.

 

[castleri]

You might want to compare the 1 or 2 BR to suites that would be available at the resort you are comparing to. My break even point came very early as I was able to pay cash for my first contract and out first DVC stay was a combination of 2 nights BWV studio, 4 nights OKW GV and 2 nights OKW 2BR.
If I used adding up the rack rates for those rooms even back in 1998 that one trip probably brought me to close to half my original cost. Now the other side of the coin- prior to buying DVC we had only stayed on property once and that was the trip we bought in during. We stayed at PORFQ and had a really good package rate. We had always stayed offsite at Days Inn Suites or some such that were as cheap as we could find. If I compare the cost of those rooms then I probably haven't financially broken even yet. When did I really break even - the first time I walked into a GV and knew that I had many years of outstanding vacations ahead and never had to stay off site again unless I chose to do so for some other reason like saving points on a weekend or going to other places than WDW where the other location would be closer.

I don't think there is any formula that will work for everyone. I usually take the cost of my contract divided by the number of years I have the use of the points and then add in the MF for the number of points I will need to get the cost of my individual stays. This year my cost is somewhere around 6.65 per point. For a studio my cost is about the same as some of the places we used to stay offsite. I am aware this is oversimplified since I don't include lost earnings on the money I spent in the beginning if I had put it in some form of investment but then if I took a vacation every year the money I spent then would be gone also so figure in the long run it will be a wash. Right now I could sell my original contract and get my money + back. That won't always be the case but for now it work for me.
There is no way to figure the joy and happiness I have had from the family vacations we have taken over the last 9 years so as I said I figure I broke even the very first time we stayed in a DVC unit.

 

[Donald is #1]

then if you start to throw in "well I stayed in a 2 br so thats 2 reg rooms" that throws it off even more if you truly know you would have never paid for 2 reg rooms

I was actually having this debate with myself for my October trip. I am going with my 2 sisters and since I have developer's points to use, I am splurging on a 2 bedroom. By getting a 2 bedroom, we each have our own bed. But for comparison's sake, I don't really think that we would have paid for 2 rooms.

 

[Donald is #1]

I think that you might be better comparing the rack rate for the DVC 1 and 2 bdrms that Disney offers to get a better idea. Just a thought

I thought about that but I'm thinking that the rack rate costs may be very high. Then again, maybe it will show that I break even in only 2-3 years!

 

[Donald is #1]

I am doing one too, mostly for fun. I do several things.

I have a spreadsheet that compares the room I am booking, say a 1bdrm villa, to the cash rate of that room then I subtract that from the purchase price, so right now I am in the red for a minute. I do have a seperate column that subtracts the cash rate (don't forget to add the tax) for the room from the purchase price and dues paid for that year.

Then in a second sheet I do the same thing above except for using the rack rate through CRO, I use it to compare with an AAA discount. AP rates are getting fewer and not avail at all rooms so at least AAA gives me a pretty good analysis as well.

Very interesting approach. I wasn't thinking about subtracting the costs as a method of tracking. I was going to create multiple graphs lines and see when the "paid" for rooms cross the DVC line. Your approach is much simplier than having to keep updating a graph.

How do you get the price of the AAA rate? I have used AAA before for my trips but I have always gone to my local office and talked to my travel agent. Gee with my DVC purchase, she won't be seeing me as much.

I dont think I would use the rack rate--those are way out of whack
maybe if you want an extra column to compare rack rates as well just as a nice little piece of info


I just do it comparing what I would have spent for a reg room no matter what category DVC room I stay in. Its hard enough to do because of the fact the number of vacations will never be the same when you own DVC vs if you didnt

then if you start to throw in "well I stayed in a 2 br so thats 2 reg rooms" that throws it off even more if you truly know you would have never paid for 2 reg rooms

again you could have a separate column for that too just for comparing

but I think if you want to realize a true break even then you really have to be objective as to what you would have spent without DVC

Your approach was my original plan until I started to get "fancy". There is definitely a lot of merit in it. Maybe instead of looking at room size, I count the number of people: 4 or less = 1 room, 5-8 = 2 rooms, etc. Of course, then I would probably be splitting the cost of the room with the people too. Boy is this getting complicated!

I'm keeping track of my "break even" time as well. Being that I just bought last year and have only taken one trip thus far, it will be a while. But I'm not trying to do it in a way that compares one room vs. another or one resort vs. another. I'm using a cost per night method.

In July I stayed six nights in a two bedroom. With my total cost + maint. fees I paid $3,207.56 per night. But that will go down over time.

In Nov. I will be staying for 8 nights making my total nights thus far 14. That means I paid $1,379.80 per night (for all 14 nights stayed). That includes more maint fees since I added 50 pts.

Sometime in the future I will be able to say I'm paying $100 a night or less for each night I have stayed. At that period in time I will say I have "broken even." But who knows how much a room for cash will cost at that time. Maybe I will feel I have "broken even" way before then.

But I have to say this, the vacation I was able to take with my family, staying in a 2bed, was worth the money already. I'm very happy with my DVC!

Wow! Thsi is a very different approach from my plan but I really like it! It is so much simplier. Being a nerd, maybe I will create another sheet in my spreadsheet to calculate by this method also. Hmmm.

You might want to compare the 1 or 2 BR to suites that would be available at the resort you are comparing to. My break even point came very early as I was able to pay cash for my first contract and out first DVC stay was a combination of 2 nights BWV studio, 4 nights OKW GV and 2 nights OKW 2BR.
If I used adding up the rack rates for those rooms even back in 1998 that one trip probably brought me to close to half my original cost. Now the other side of the coin- prior to buying DVC we had only stayed on property once and that was the trip we bought in during. We stayed at PORFQ and had a really good package rate. We had always stayed offsite at Days Inn Suites or some such that were as cheap as we could find. If I compare the cost of those rooms then I probably haven't financially broken even yet. When did I really break even - the first time I walked into a GV and knew that I had many years of outstanding vacations ahead and never had to stay off site again unless I chose to do so for some other reason like saving points on a weekend or going to other places than WDW where the other location would be closer.

I don't think there is any formula that will work for everyone. I usually take the cost of my contract divided by the number of years I have the use of the points and then add in the MF for the number of points I will need to get the cost of my individual stays. This year my cost is somewhere around 6.65 per point. For a studio my cost is about the same as some of the places we used to stay offsite. I am aware this is oversimplified since I don't include lost earnings on the money I spent in the beginning if I had put it in some form of investment but then if I took a vacation every year the money I spent then would be gone also so figure in the long run it will be a wash. Right now I could sell my original contract and get my money + back. That won't always be the case but for now it work for me.
There is no way to figure the joy and happiness I have had from the family vacations we have taken over the last 9 years so as I said I figure I broke even the very first time we stayed in a DVC unit.

Cool! Another totally different approach. This is great! It is amazing how many of us have taken totally different approaches to get to the same answer!

On the room cost, all but 1 of my previous trips have been on-site. So comparing against a Disney resort would be accurate. But would I actually pay for a 1 or 2 bedroom suite?

 

[Donald is #1]

Everyone, awesome suggestions so far! It really is great to hear about all of the different methods.

Another thought that I had, actually while reading all of the replies, is to maybe calculate the "cost" of the room buy using the current point rental rate. In other words, if my trip is 100 points, then multiple it by $10-$12 per point and use that as my cost comparison.


From these suggestions, I can definitely see that I will be adding more pages to my spreadsheet to try out these different methods.

 

[bgsnmky]

so who would be willing to share their spreadsheet for us analysts that don't want to start from scratch!!!

I would love to do the same thing.

my email is stacey.magee@tx.rr.com for anyone willing to share (of course you can take out your information if you are worried about me getting it).

From a very simplistic approach - I always have to take into account the dues for the year and determine if I would have spent more or less on the hotel's of the dues. Then of course the whole purchase price comes in to play...If the money I spent on the dues is less than the hotel, let's say I saved $100 then that would come off the purchase price of the unit.

Once the purchase price is down to 0.00 then I start getting ahead.

 

[cobbler]

Donald -
I take the AAA room only rate.

So I know that with AAA you will get 20% off values and moderates during value season
15% off deluxe.

15% off values and moderates during regular and peak season
10% off deluxe

Nothing off of holiday season.

So lets say a 1bedroom costs 500 rack rate during value season. I know the AAA rate is 15% off that so that is 425 + tax which is 478.13.

I don't do AP because there are times AP isn't offered to every resort. For the past couple of years it was Epcot resorts + SSR and OKW only, that would leave out VWL and soon AKV.

We always traveled before with some sort of room discount, either AAA, AP or the once available Magic Kingdom Club. I never have paid rack rate yet, so that is why I keep both, just more for fun.

I also don't compute the FV of money and lost on investment and all that nonsense because 1- that is just to much work and I don't feel like doing it and 2 - I would have spent the money anyway, I wouldn't have invested it and used the earnings for vacations and that kind of stuff.

 

[cobbler]

Donald and bgsnmky
If you want a copy of my spreadsheet that I have done so far, to kind of see what I do, send me a PM with your email and I can show you what I do.

I don't mind sharing.

 

[Maistre Gracey]

Another thought that I had, actually while reading all of the replies, is to maybe calculate the "cost" of the room buy using the current point rental rate. In other words, if my trip is 100 points, then multiple it by $10-$12 per point and use that as my cost comparison.

Just my opinion, but 10-12 bucks/pt is the rental rate, not the cost.

This years cost is around $7/pt.
How do I come up with that figure? Let's say points are around $100 each. AKV points have about 50 years left, so each point will cost $2 per use. Add to that $4.62 for annual fees, and we get a little under $7/pt.

The yearly per point cost will rise with annual fee increases, but that's easy to calculate. It's easy to figure the actual out of pocket cost of our DVC accommodations, then compare it to a cash ressie.

I'm a strong advocate for NOT factoring in lost opportunity costs, as I don't brelieve we lose anything. In fact, we likely make money since after breaking even on DVC we can invest that money that would be spent on hotels for the next 40 years.

Just one Member's thought process in action..

MG

 

[morgklm]

We are new members as well, and will be taking our first DVC trip next July. You can really get yourself wrapped in the different methods for calculating the costs! We've decided that since we will mostly be staying in a studio, that we can pretty safely use the rack rate for that room for that time period and comparing costs per point. We determined cost per point using a we have x points per year for 47 years divided by initial cost + cost of MF for each point. For us, it works out to about $6.20 per point this year. So, a 10 day trip next June will run 161 points at SSR or a total of $998.20. The current rack rate for that time period is $309/night for a total of $3,090.00 + tax! A total "savings" of at least $2,091.80. Now, for some, that won't work, since they may have chosen to stay in a less expensive hotel during their stay, but that is a personal choice. We would always choose to stay onsite in one of the resorts, and the rack rate at SSR is really not too bad, compared to something like the CR or Poly!Of course, the price per point will change slightly each year due to increased MF, but that is evened out by the fact that the rack rates will probably go up as well.

 

[salmoneous]

If I really to do a cash-breakeven, I would look at what I would have paid to stay at Disney had I not been on the plan. So, for me, studio = 1 room, 1BR = 1 room and 2BR = 2 rooms. No, the comparison isn't fair as a 1BR is "better" than 1 CRO room. But I wouldn't factor quality in a breakeven. You just have to say that "not only did I breakeven after 20 years, but I had better accommodations". To me, that's a more honest answer than "I broke even after 10 years compared to rooms I wouldn't have paid to stay in."

To me, this is a similar exercise to the Dining Plan analysis people like to do. Personally, I can't say 1TS saved me $50 when I eat at Coral Reef. Sure, that's the menu price for my dinner. But there's no way in heck I would have paid $50 for a meal at Coral Reef if I weren't on the plan.

 

[Donald is #1]

From a very simplistic approach - I always have to take into account the dues for the year and determine if I would have spent more or less on the hotel's of the dues. Then of course the whole purchase price comes in to play...If the money I spent on the dues is less than the hotel, let's say I saved $100 then that would come off the purchase price of the unit.

Once the purchase price is down to 0.00 then I start getting ahead.

Luckily (or unluckily depending upon your point of view) for me, the straight hotel costs versus dues will always favor the dues in my case since I am spoiled and like to stay at a deluxe. Now taking into account the buy-in price is where it becomes interesting.

Donald -
I take the AAA room only rate.

So I know that with AAA you will get 20% off values and moderates during value season
15% off deluxe.

15% off values and moderates during regular and peak season
10% off deluxe

Nothing off of holiday season.

So lets say a 1bedroom costs 500 rack rate during value season. I know the AAA rate is 15% off that so that is 425 + tax which is 478.13.

I don't do AP because there are times AP isn't offered to every resort. For the past couple of years it was Epcot resorts + SSR and OKW only, that would leave out VWL and soon AKV.

We always traveled before with some sort of room discount, either AAA, AP or the once available Magic Kingdom Club. I never have paid rack rate yet, so that is why I keep both, just more for fun.

I also don't compute the FV of money and lost on investment and all that nonsense because 1- that is just to much work and I don't feel like doing it and 2 - I would have spent the money anyway, I wouldn't have invested it and used the earnings for vacations and that kind of stuff.

Thanks! I wasn't sure if you new of an AAA website that will give you the rates. I like your approach, since I would normally use the AAA rate for my room.

I agree with you on computing the FV value of the money spent. I thought about it for a microsecond and quickly decided that it was too complicated and that I would be spending the money on vacation each year anyways.

Just my opinion, but 10-12 bucks/pt is the rental rate, not the cost.

This years cost is around $7/pt.
How do I come up with that figure? Let's say points are around $100 each. AKV points have about 50 years left, so each point will cost $2 per use. Add to that $4.62 for annual fees, and we get a little under $7/pt.

The yearly per point cost will rise with annual fee increases, but that's easy to calculate. It's easy to figure the actual out of pocket cost of our DVC accommodations, then compare it to a cash ressie.

I'm a strong advocate for NOT factoring in lost opportunity costs, as I don't brelieve we lose anything. In fact, we likely make money since after breaking even on DVC we can invest that money that would be spent on hotels for the next 40 years.

Just one Member's thought process in action..

MG

MG, thanks so much for going over how you calculate the cost. Nerd that I am, I may try 2 or 3 different methods and I think that one of the methods will be calculating the points per year cost.

As I mentioned in my reply above, I agree with you & Cobbler. I am not going to add in the lost opportunity because in reality, I would be spending the money on vacation anyways. Plus within a few years or so, my buy-in into DVC will have paid for itself!

We are new members as well, and will be taking our first DVC trip next July. You can really get yourself wrapped in the different methods for calculating the costs! We've decided that since we will mostly be staying in a studio, that we can pretty safely use the rack rate for that room for that time period and comparing costs per point. We determined cost per point using a we have x points per year for 47 years divided by initial cost + cost of MF for each point. For us, it works out to about $6.20 per point this year. So, a 10 day trip next June will run 161 points at SSR or a total of $998.20. The current rack rate for that time period is $309/night for a total of $3,090.00 + tax! A total "savings" of at least $2,091.80. Now, for some, that won't work, since they may have chosen to stay in a less expensive hotel during their stay, but that is a personal choice. We would always choose to stay onsite in one of the resorts, and the rack rate at SSR is really not too bad, compared to something like the CR or Poly!Of course, the price per point will change slightly each year due to increased MF, but that is evened out by the fact that the rack rates will probably go up as well.

I am similar to you in that I really prefer to stay on-site and I definitely like to stay in the deluxe resorts. I think that I will compare to WL and AKL since those are the last 3 resorts that I have stayed at and I really enjoyed them.

If I really to do a cash-breakeven, I would look at what I would have paid to stay at Disney had I not been on the plan. So, for me, studio = 1 room, 1BR = 1 room and 2BR = 2 rooms. No, the comparison isn't fair as a 1BR is "better" than 1 CRO room. But I wouldn't factor quality in a breakeven. You just have to say that "not only did I breakeven after 20 years, but I had better accommodations". To me, that's a more honest answer than "I broke even after 10 years compared to rooms I wouldn't have paid to stay in."

To me, this is a similar exercise to the Dining Plan analysis people like to do. Personally, I can't say 1TS saved me $50 when I eat at Coral Reef. Sure, that's the menu price for my dinner. But there's no way in heck I would have paid $50 for a meal at Coral Reef if I weren't on the plan.

The more I think about it, for my original analysis (as opposed to the 1-2 other methods that I will probably be adding based upon all of the excellent suggestions) I will be using a method similar to your suggestion. The only modification that I think I may make is that if I book a 2 bedroom, I will make a call as to whether I would have booked 1 or 2 rooms. This complication is mostly due to the circumstances of my October trip where my sisters and I are staying in a 2 bedroom because I am blowing my developer's points. If we weren't staying at DVC, the 3 of us would probably be in 1 room.

 

[sjdisneywedding]

............I may try 3 or 3 different methods and I think that one of the methods will be calculating the points per year cost.
.

You'll never get there with that kind of math though

sorry I couldnt resist

 

[Donald is #1]

You'll never get there with that kind of math though

sorry I couldnt resist

You got me! One of these days I will proof-read.

 

[Donald is #1]

Hi again! I'm in my spreadsheet updating it based upon many of the ideas in this thread and I have come up with another question.

For those of you calculating breakeven costs, do you account for trips that you don't personally take but you gave your points to someone?
Background: Assuming my sister makes up her mind this week, I am going to book 4-5 days at VB (if it is available) for my sister. I have told her that I will give her the points for this trip.

Now, if I had rented the points, then I would have added the money from the rental so that my actual "cost" would be reduced by the cost of the points. But in this case, there is no money changing hands. I am jsut trying to give my sister a nice vacation.