Do you think DVC sales will slow down or continue to grow?

[Joni]

I'm not sure what will happen to DVC in the next few years. I just know we joined DVC after spending so much each year and realizing that if we bought we would eventually have something to show for our money. We don't go for a lot of the reasons that people do with young families. We have 3 boys and our youngest is 16 and even when he was young would never go near a character. Our love of WDW is for the safety of a vacation place, you don't need a car(even thought we drive there a lot), the countless hours of walking and people watching, the wonderful places to eat out, just hanging out around our resort and then deciding to walk into a park just to do one ride and walk around it. We always wonder how long DVC will be popular. I try not to worry about it because it works for us and we always have a great vacation. I don't try to explain it to anyone anymore because they will never understand. Right now I like to know I can go and always have a good safe time at my timeshare. I'm not sure sales have slowed down or that SSR is so big and will take that long to sell. BWV, BCV, and WLV were all small so they didn't not take so long. Just an observation.

 

[PinkTink63]

At first I thought that there's always going to be another generation of Disney Nuts, but on further reflection I'm not sure. DW and I (in our 40s) grew up during a big Disney time, seeing Snow White at drive-ins, all those wacky live action movies ("The CPU that wore Nikes" or something), Lady & the Tramp, etc. DS (25) grew up during that wonderful time of Little Mermaid, Aladdin, BATB, etc. Since we have no DGS or DGD yet, I don't know if Disney is as much as part of today's youth as it was for us and our son.

My point is this: there will always be new folks who have enough money to buy into DVC, the question is will they still want to....

I am in my 40's and grew up watching TWWOWD on Sunday nights. My brothers and I couldn't wait for it to come on. I remember going to the drive-in to see "The Jungle Book." Those where the days!
I think it is definitely a different generation of "Disney Nuts", but none the less, Disney fans! Because of modern technology and commercialism, I think it is more "out there", than ever before. As long as Disney continues to grow, so will it's fans.
My son is almost 12 and he loves Disney and I think he always will. His likes about Disney have changed over the years and I'm sure will continue to change, but it is part of his being. He thinks that becoming an Imagineer would be the coolest job! It has become a sort of family tradition for us.

Stephanie

 

[Sammie]

This is not a resort knocking thread, so please don't take it that way.

My wife and I were talking and so far I think there are around 100,000 DVC members.

While we all know DVC is a great deal (IMHO anyway) you almost have to be a Disney Nut to shell out a so much money so that you can visit Disney over and over again.

BEFORE THE FLAMES START I AM A DISNEY NUT & A DVC OWNER !!!!

I just wonder if it will slow down or when it will hit a point of deminishing returns.

I would love to see how membership has grown in the last few years.(i.e # of members per year).


Thoughts?

Actually the number is closer to 300,000.

 

[fishermouse]

This is not a resort knocking thread, so please don't take it that way.

My wife and I were talking and so far I think there are around 100,000 DVC members.

While we all know DVC is a great deal (IMHO anyway) you almost have to be a Disney Nut to shell out a so much money so that you can visit Disney over and over again.

BEFORE THE FLAMES START I AM A DISNEY NUT & A DVC OWNER !!!!

I just wonder if it will slow down or when it will hit a point of deminishing returns.

I would love to see how membership has grown in the last few years.(i.e # of members per year).


Thoughts?

My DW is doing her part to keep sales up.

 

[keys2kingdom]

Actually the number is closer to 300,000.

Sammie, did you mean 100,000? I have some paperwork that shows it at just under 95,000 at the end of last October.

 

[shellbelle1971]

I politely disagree. IMHO it has everything to do with adults - yes, they make the purchase decision - who were raised in / or fell in love with a Disney atmosphere. Look at the marketing: Own a Piece of the Magic!
IMHO - YMMV

Dr. T, I have tremendous respect for your well-thought-through posts and your take on many issues. One thing I have wondered, which would make Disney geniuses with the SSR-4-grown-ups idea you mentioned, is whether decreasing birthrates might contribute to slowing growth at DVC & WDW.

It just seems like fewer kids overall might mean a smaller group of potential disneyholics in the future. Maybe WDW's long-term outlook hinges on their ability to successfully attract the grown-up market? Note, I'm not saying that there aren't plenty of no-kids (either -yet, or -ever, or -anymore) people out there who love all things disney. Just that IMO, the execs are/might be wise to consider expanding their appeal in that market.

 

[minnieandmickey]

What I don't understand is if sales are low why do they keep increasing the point price, I believe they have gone up twice in the last 6 mo? It doesn't make sense why they would want to do that. But I do love being a new member and look forward to adding on either at my home resort or at another.

 

[simzac]

I also believe that SSR sales are better than most people say they are. JMO I also believe that DVC sales will continue to thrive for many years to come.

 

[Sammie]

Sammie, did you mean 100,000? I have some paperwork that shows it at just under 95,000 at the end of last October.

I was told recently by DVC management total membership is near 300K.

 

[keys2kingdom]

I was told recently by DVC management total membership is near 300K.

Wow that is amazing! I had no idea. Wonder if that huge jump was due to F&F.

 

[PamOKW]

I don't see where sales of SSR have been slow --- heck they're building as fast as they can and the announcement of Phase 2 was much sooner than they expected. And the price wouldn't be going up if there was a problem with sales.

I'm sure the rise in interest rates may have had some effect -- but with the economy getting stronger I imagine people will adjust to the new rates, which are still lower than they've been in a long time.

 

[Sammie]

Wow that is amazing! I had no idea. Wonder if that huge jump was due to F&F.

I am not sure how they count membership. For example is the 100,000 the actual number of contracts sold and the 300,000 is actual people they have to deal with.

I was just questioning to MS management why it seemed to get harder and harder to get through at times, and I was told that with 300K members and DVC not hiring additional staff, it won't get better.

 

[DrTomorrow]

Yep, MrsTomorrow and I co-own 1 contract, so we could be counted as one or two.

 

[DisFlan]

We have one contract and 4 blue cards. The 300,000 number may be as misleading as the 100,000 number. It's probably somewhere in between.

DisFlan

 

[Blue&Gold]

I think Dis says in its own PR something to the effect that "over 95,000 families know the secret." The number probably has gone over 100K. 100K "families" = 300K-ish members. Apples and oranges.

The Disney company was ripe for take-over and break up in the late 70s before Eisner saved it in the 80s. Read "Disney War" by James B. Stewart... The company was stale and without vision. Some feel it had gone stale again in recent years. I think Lasseter will be the key to the next 15-20 years for this company.

At any rate, I will own .0045887987 % (or something like that) of the beatiful BoardWalk Villas in Lake Buena Vista until 2042! Whether there is anything to do while I'm there is another question.

Mostly, I'm pretty confident in the future of the Resort. Other pieces of the Disney puzzle, like ABC, might fail---and even take the corporate ship down with them, but the parks and the cruise lines (and DVC by extension of the parks) will survive. Warren Buffet or Carl Icahn might own them after some corporate raid, but they are money-making enterprises. It takes decades of incompetent management to whittle away brand loyalty like this.

 

[Johnnyfairplay]

What I don't understand is if sales are low why do they keep increasing the point price, I believe they have gone up twice in the last 6 mo? It doesn't make sense why they would want to do that. But I do love being a new member and look forward to adding on either at my home resort or at another.

Why not increase the point cost? It gives the illusion of strong sales. It isn't about the per point cost anyway, it is about what you pay in the end. They could call it $150 a point if they wanted to. You would see the promotions bringing the final costs down to a more reasonable rate. Let the customer think they are getting a deal. Besides, does anyone here think sales will stop becuase they raise the point cost? It may take longer to sell but it will sell. I have no doubt that these price increases are pre-determined anyway. They probably know right now what the point cost will be next June. I don't believe that the price increase is tied to sales in any way. They simply raise it periodically. If sales get real slow then they roll out a great incentive like F&F to stir interest. Tell me it doesn't work wehn the guide says " By the way, I just wanted to let you know the price is going up on April 1st." It gives buyers a sense of urgency which is always a good sales tactic. Our sales slow? I couldn't say, I don't have any inside info. on this. SSR is selling, how long until it is sold out?


johnny

 

[drakethib]

Actually the number is closer to 300,000.

That many???

Really?

I didn't realzie it was that high.

 

[Disney Doll]

You know, I often wonder that myself. The membership growing part, I mean.

I look at the price per point, and think how fortunate I feel that we were able to buy when it was $62/point. And that is not meant to be a jibe to anyone, at all. I love Disney, I love my DVC, but it would be awfully hard for me to justify paying much more than $100/point for it. I think that will be a big turning point in the DVC program. I think there's something psychological about $100 per point that will make people stop and think. And I am not necessarily implying that DVC isn't worth $100/point, because perhaps it is. There just seems to be something about that number.

I also think it will be more difficult to sell at $100/point because resales will be less than $100/point, and people may look to the resale market more, because of the lesser cost.

Of course, my theory will be blown if the next DVC is built at the Contemporary, because I htink there are a lot of folks who will pay a premium to own at a resort within walking distance to the MK and on the monorail.

So really, what do I know?

 

[KatiebugsMom]

I look at the price per point, and think how fortunate I feel that we were able to buy when it was $62/point. And that is not meant to be a jibe to anyone, at all. I love Disney, I love my DVC, but it would be awfully hard for me to justify paying much more than $100/point for it. I think that will be a big turning point in the DVC program. I think there's something psychological about $100 per point that will make people stop and think. And I am not necessarily implying that DVC isn't worth $100/point, because perhaps it is. There just seems to be something about that number.

I do have to agree with the above statement. The knowledge that the price was going to increase soon to over $100 when I started to look again at the idea of DVC, I think is what pushed me to finally make a purchase after 7 years of wishing to be an owner. And the added incentive of the $1200 credit making the price $90 per point. My husband and I looked at the options for payment we had available and decided the time was right. I am so glad we did it and not looking back......PS just purchased SSR directly from Disney (no resale) and a proud new owner. So there are still sales out there to be made......

 

[ralphd]

The DVC Member website says 'over 90,000 member families'. They also eliminate (do not count) duplicate contracts owned by the same family.

See section 'Learn About DVC". I understand that this number has increased, but has not exceeded 100,000 member families.