Disney preparing for a "very prolonged shutdown"?

[Jroceagles]

Sounds like they will be open sooner than later
https://thefloridachannel.org/

 

[dvcgirl67]

What you just posted does nothing to say why we should care what this one financial analyst ASSUMES Disney will stay closed. He has to say whether he suggests buying the stock or not. He's assuming the parks will remain closed when he says he's "neutral" about what to do with the stock. He's not saying it will stay closed nor that it should. I'm not saying they'll be open June 1.

But why is so much weight being put on a single analyst saying "I'm assuming they stay closed through the year. Therefore, I'm neutral about whether to buy their stock." That's was all he was saying.

I just started a conversation about an the title..."Disney preparing for a "very prolonged shut down"?" I cited the article. I mentioned that other analysts have questioned whether the park can reopen this year. There are others who envision a more "phased opening". I cited what that might look like.

Yes, the original citation was from the Financial Times. But it's an interesting discussion because a lot of people are wondering how Disney is going to be able to open at all, and if so, what will that look like. It's just a conversation.

 

[Disneybuckeye]

What you just posted does nothing to say why we should care what this one financial analyst ASSUMES Disney will stay closed. He has to say whether he suggests buying the stock or not. He's assuming the parks will remain closed when he says he's "neutral" about what to do with the stock. He's not saying it will stay closed nor that it should. I'm not saying they'll be open June 1.

But why is so much weight being put on a single analyst saying "I'm assuming they stay closed through the year. Therefore, I'm neutral about whether to buy their stock." That's was all he was saying.

And another poster trying to ruin good fear mongering with facts

 

[cabanafrau]

Disney would be rather foolish not to be preparing for a prolonged shutdown. Have they been able to open the Asian parks at all yet?

 

[dvcgirl67]

And another poster trying to ruin good fear mongering with facts

What facts? That poster doesn't like that an analyst that follows Disney made a prediction that Disney may be in for a "prolonged shutdown". That's all the analyst said. Another analyst came out yesterday or the day before to say he thinks it'll shut down for the year. Disney is a publicly traded company, if they truly believe that it's better for their bottom line, they'll stay closed. If they open up and it's more trouble than it's worth to them, they'll shut back down. If they open up carefully and slowly and put a safe system in place, then perhaps they'll be able to open things up a bit further.

Do you really feel like it's "fear mongering" to say that if/when Disney opens that the experience will be greatly curtailed? Do you really believe that it's possible for Disney World to open June 1st, wide-open? Resorts full, parks and restaurants full....just like before?

It's a conversation about when Disney may open the parks, and if they do sooner than later, how that might look. What are your thoughts? What do you envision the opening looking like?

 

[dvcgirl67]

Disney would be rather foolish not to be preparing for a prolonged shutdown. Have they been able to open the Asian parks at all yet?

No. Shanghai opened just the hotels and limited shopping in an "entertainment area", but not the park. Lots of restrictions for guests. Face masks on at all times, temp checks, phone checks for a code that shows you are in the "green" zone...and therefore can move freely. But park still closed.

Tokyo Disneyland had planned on an April 20th opening, but now has said they won't even make another announcement about it until Mid-May. They thought they had their outbreak under control (and they're way better at this pandemic stuff than we are), but they've had flare-ups there.

Disneyland Paris says, "closed until further notice".

Analysts look at these types of things too. You know, like when tiny operations like these three satellites can't get up and running, especially in China and Japan, 4-5 months later, that it might be an issue opening the Mother Ship in Orlando.

 

[mefordis]

Agree and I mean should my mother who lives alone and is older basically lock herself up for an unforseen longer period of time? and her only joy in life is looking forward to her grocery deliveries. What life is that?????

I am so sick of the let's protect the "vulnerable".. and have the "healthy" go back to life mantra. Allow people to work in many state plans also means opening bars/restaurants to get those people working again.. For me it's a sick idea that some younger guy now gets to enjoy his beer in a bar while my mom is told to stay at home and have groceries delivered.

How about testing for antibodies since many people have already had it? Those who are immune get to go back into society, work, try to keep the economy going.

 

[cabanafrau]

How about testing for antibodies since many people have already had it? Those who are immune get to go back into society, work, try to keep the economy going.

That works, as long as the tests are quality controlled and have passed rigorous testing themselves to show that they produce accurate results. It also requires an understanding of what antibody levels provide immunity, if any, and how long that immunity lasts.

There's a few doughnut holes in that solution right at the moment.

 

[sam_gordon]

That poster doesn't like that an analyst that follows Disney made a prediction that Disney may be in for a "prolonged shutdown".

You like to assume also. I don't really care whether Disney opens in June, August, 2021, or by 2025. I don't want to see that many people out of work but to say I "don't like" that a financial analyst made an ASSUMPTION (not a prediction) that they'll be closed until 2021 is nothing but a falsehood.

Could they be closed until 2021? Sure. Could they open June 1? Yes, but I doubt it. Personally I'm not going to guess when they might open. You're reading something in my posts that isn't there just like you read something that's in the article you link that's not there.

 

[Searc]

Disney would be rather foolish not to be preparing for a prolonged shutdown. Have they been able to open the Asian parks at all yet?

No. I believe they were closed in late January/early February and are still closed.

 

[mefordis]

That works, as long as the tests are quality controlled and have passed rigorous testing themselves to show that they produce accurate results. It also requires an understanding of what antibody levels provide immunity, if any, and how long that immunity lasts.

There's a few doughnut holes in that solution right at the moment.

Good points and also, how do we show proof of immunity? Would have to carry around some paperwork I guess.

 

[cabanafrau]

Good points and also, how do we show proof of immunity? Would have to carry around some paperwork I guess.

Seems like there would have to be some proof given. How that is accomplished and all the other complications arising from that aspect, I have no idea.

 

[Farro]

Disney would be rather foolish not to be preparing for a prolonged shutdown. Have they been able to open the Asian parks at all yet?

Shanghai is preparing/testing for opening.

https://blogmickey.com/2020/04/shanghai-disneyland-reportedly-begins-simulations-for-reopening/

 

[cabanafrau]

Shanghai is preparing/testing for opening.

https://blogmickey.com/2020/04/shanghai-disneyland-reportedly-begins-simulations-for-reopening/

Would be so encouraging to hear it goes well.

 

[dvcgirl67]

That works, as long as the tests are quality controlled and have passed rigorous testing themselves to show that they produce accurate results. It also requires an understanding of what antibody levels provide immunity, if any, and how long that immunity lasts.

There's a few doughnut holes in that solution right at the moment.

Agreed. I think we're heading in this direction, and I've read that there are lots of serology tests coming onto the market. Many of them rushed by the FDA (understandably), to get them to market. Unfortunately, as a result, there are a lot of bad serology tests out there right now. The COVID-19 tests have improved, but still not nearly enough of them.

Also, the State of NY is moving to get an "army of tracers" in place. Bloomberg and John's Hopkins are working to get that up and running quickly. It will states, the private sector and philanthropists like a Bloomberg and Bill and Melinda Gates that are the groups that will get us moving again in the right direction. The army of contract tracers will help track down people who have been exposed to an infected person, and then isolate. Hopefully we can get to the point where we have a code on our phones that will show we're immune.

The problem is...it's going to take time. The two serology tests out of California show that the cases were much higher than the confirmed positives, but that much higher number was still just between 2.5 and 6% of the population.

 

[dvcgirl67]

Shanghai is preparing/testing for opening.

https://blogmickey.com/2020/04/shanghai-disneyland-reportedly-begins-simulations-for-reopening/

Wow....those photos of boxes where people need to stand in queues really show how different the experience is going to be.

No choice though, it's the only way to do it. Anyone heading there is going to need to pack their patience for sure. I wonder how they'll space out seating in restaurants...etc. It's just a whole new world...and not in that great Aladdin-y kind of way.

 

[gwynne]

The government can not force a private business to open, if they wish to remain closed. I know Disney will be smart about when and how they reopen.

I agree. I think Disney will want to try to avoid multiple reopenings and reclosings.

 

[Farro]

Wow....those photos of boxes where people need to stand in queues really show how different the experience is going to be.

No choice though, it's the only way to do it. Anyone heading there is going to need to pack their patience for sure. I wonder how they'll space out seating in restaurants...etc. It's just a whole new world...and not in that great Aladdin-y kind of way.

At least for a while, but hopefully next year things will ease up.

 

[Searc]

I know they are long, but these two threads are along the same lines as this one, if someone is looking for more perspectives.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/r...ntial-modifications-being-considered.3797114/
https://www.disboards.com/threads/w...to-coronavirus.3796390/page-273#post-61807578
You could skip to the last 10 pages or so of each thread and be caught up.

 

[DisneyJamieCA]

Good points and also, how do we show proof of immunity? Would have to carry around some paperwork I guess.

They'll also need to figure out how long immunity lasts before that really does any good.