Luxurious_Lumiere
Mouseketeer
- Joined
- Oct 6, 2017
Twas the night before Oscar noms! Tomorrow AM we will find out how this crazy race is truly shaking out.
But first, the important Producers Guild (PGA) announced their annual winners:
Feature Film: Green Book
Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Documentary Feature: Won't You be my Neighbor?
This is an enormous win for Green Book. The PGA uses a preferential ballot just like the Academy. It has been a tough week for the film, with several controversies befalling it right as Oscar voting took place. For now those controversies don't seem to be swaying voters. The question is, will the backlash grow? Hard to say right now, but as it stands this feel-good pic just jumped to the leader of the pack in this year without a frontrunner.
I could see Green Book with a similar trajectory as Moonlight. It won the Globe, then went on to win Oscars for Best Picture, Original Screenplay, and Supporting Actor (Mahershala Ali). Curiously, Green Book also features Ali and I can see it racking up those very same three wins.
Should its strength be doubted? After all, it isn't nominated for SAG's Best Ensemble award. Only two films in history have been able to overcome a snub there and go on to win Best Picture (Braveheart and The Shape of Water). I have a hunch that after the SAG-AFTRA merger a few years ago, this might become a breakable stat (AFTRA members, now part of the same union, get to vote too. And AFTRA members include television and radio personalities, including those who are not performers but hosts etc. Their tastes often differ from those directly in the film industry).
So if Green Book can't win SAG, what does? A Star is Born really needed the PGA win to stay afloat. I think the glow has finally faded from it. Black Panther would make sense with this group. But I can see BlacKkKlansman taking it. Couple that ensemble win with a strong possibility for Spike Lee to finally win an Oscar for Adapted Screenplay, and the race becomes Green Book vs. BlacKkKlansman. Of course, Roma is still lurking and will most likely claim director and cinematography. We shall see!
Here's my final Best Picture rankings, as well as predictions for major categories:
Best Picture
1. Green Book
2. Roma
3. BlacKkKlansman
4. A Star is Born
5. Black Panther
6. The Favourite
7. Vice
8. Bohemian Rhapsody (I have a hunch it will only be 8 nominees, and I'd bet on these first 8)
9. If Beale Street Could Talk
10. Mary Poppins Returns
---
11. First Man
12. A Quiet Place
13. Eighth Grade
14. Crazy Rich Asians
15. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
16. Leave No Trace
17. Cold War
18. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
19. Widows
20. The Wife
Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
2. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
4. Peter Farrelly, Green Book
5. Adam McKay, Vice (very vulnerable, but I cant decide who takes his place)
---
6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
7. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
8. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
9. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
10. Debra Granik, Leave No Trace
Lead Actor
1. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
2. Christian Bale, Vice
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
5. John Benjamin Washington, BlacKkKlansman
---
6. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
7. Willam DaFoe, Eternity's Gate
8. Steve Coogan, Stan and Ollie
9. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace
Lead Actress
1. Glenn Close, The Wife
2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite
3. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
---
6. Viola Davis, Widows
7. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
8. Toni Collette, Hereditary
9. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
10. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book
2. Richard E Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
4. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
5. Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
---
6. Sam Rockwell, Vice
7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther
8. Steve Carrell, Vice
Supporting Actress (the most wide-open acting category, I could see half the frontrunners being snubbed)
1. Amy Adams, Vice
2. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite
4. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
5. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
---
7. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
8. Claire Foy, First Man
9. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace
10. Linda Cardellini, Green Book
11. Marina de Tavria, Roma
12. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians
Original Screenplay
1. Green Book
2. Roma
3. The Favourite
4. Vice
5. Eighth Grade
---
6. First Reformed
7. A Quiet Place
8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman
2. If Beale Street Could Talk
3. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
4. A Star is Born
5. Leave No Trace
---
6. Black Panther
7. The Death of Stalin
8. First Man
9. Crazy Rich Asians
Animated Feature
1. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
2. Incredibles 2
3. Isle of Dogs
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet
5. Mirai
---
6. Early Man
7. The Grinch
8. Smallfoot
9. Ruben Brandt, Collector
10. Tito and the Birds
We shall see how smart of foolish I am in the morning!
But first, the important Producers Guild (PGA) announced their annual winners:
Feature Film: Green Book
Animated Feature: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
Documentary Feature: Won't You be my Neighbor?
This is an enormous win for Green Book. The PGA uses a preferential ballot just like the Academy. It has been a tough week for the film, with several controversies befalling it right as Oscar voting took place. For now those controversies don't seem to be swaying voters. The question is, will the backlash grow? Hard to say right now, but as it stands this feel-good pic just jumped to the leader of the pack in this year without a frontrunner.
I could see Green Book with a similar trajectory as Moonlight. It won the Globe, then went on to win Oscars for Best Picture, Original Screenplay, and Supporting Actor (Mahershala Ali). Curiously, Green Book also features Ali and I can see it racking up those very same three wins.
Should its strength be doubted? After all, it isn't nominated for SAG's Best Ensemble award. Only two films in history have been able to overcome a snub there and go on to win Best Picture (Braveheart and The Shape of Water). I have a hunch that after the SAG-AFTRA merger a few years ago, this might become a breakable stat (AFTRA members, now part of the same union, get to vote too. And AFTRA members include television and radio personalities, including those who are not performers but hosts etc. Their tastes often differ from those directly in the film industry).
So if Green Book can't win SAG, what does? A Star is Born really needed the PGA win to stay afloat. I think the glow has finally faded from it. Black Panther would make sense with this group. But I can see BlacKkKlansman taking it. Couple that ensemble win with a strong possibility for Spike Lee to finally win an Oscar for Adapted Screenplay, and the race becomes Green Book vs. BlacKkKlansman. Of course, Roma is still lurking and will most likely claim director and cinematography. We shall see!
Here's my final Best Picture rankings, as well as predictions for major categories:
Best Picture
1. Green Book
2. Roma
3. BlacKkKlansman
4. A Star is Born
5. Black Panther
6. The Favourite
7. Vice
8. Bohemian Rhapsody (I have a hunch it will only be 8 nominees, and I'd bet on these first 8)
9. If Beale Street Could Talk
10. Mary Poppins Returns
---
11. First Man
12. A Quiet Place
13. Eighth Grade
14. Crazy Rich Asians
15. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
16. Leave No Trace
17. Cold War
18. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
19. Widows
20. The Wife
Director
1. Alfonso Cuaron, Roma
2. Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
4. Peter Farrelly, Green Book
5. Adam McKay, Vice (very vulnerable, but I cant decide who takes his place)
---
6. Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
7. Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite
8. Barry Jenkins, If Beale Street Could Talk
9. Ryan Coogler, Black Panther
10. Debra Granik, Leave No Trace
Lead Actor
1. Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody
2. Christian Bale, Vice
3. Bradley Cooper, A Star is Born
4. Viggo Mortensen, Green Book
5. John Benjamin Washington, BlacKkKlansman
---
6. Ethan Hawke, First Reformed
7. Willam DaFoe, Eternity's Gate
8. Steve Coogan, Stan and Ollie
9. Ben Foster, Leave No Trace
Lead Actress
1. Glenn Close, The Wife
2. Olivia Colman, The Favourite
3. Lady Gaga, A Star is Born
4. Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5. Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns
---
6. Viola Davis, Widows
7. Yalitza Aparicio, Roma
8. Toni Collette, Hereditary
9. Nicole Kidman, Destroyer
10. Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade
Supporting Actor
1. Mahershala Ali, Green Book
2. Richard E Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me?
3. Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman
4. Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy
5. Sam Elliott, A Star is Born
---
6. Sam Rockwell, Vice
7. Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther
8. Steve Carrell, Vice
Supporting Actress (the most wide-open acting category, I could see half the frontrunners being snubbed)
1. Amy Adams, Vice
2. Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
3. Emma Stone, The Favourite
4. Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk
5. Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots
---
7. Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place
8. Claire Foy, First Man
9. Thomasin McKenzie, Leave No Trace
10. Linda Cardellini, Green Book
11. Marina de Tavria, Roma
12. Michelle Yeoh, Crazy Rich Asians
Original Screenplay
1. Green Book
2. Roma
3. The Favourite
4. Vice
5. Eighth Grade
---
6. First Reformed
7. A Quiet Place
8. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Adapted Screenplay
1. BlacKkKlansman
2. If Beale Street Could Talk
3. Can You Ever Forgive Me?
4. A Star is Born
5. Leave No Trace
---
6. Black Panther
7. The Death of Stalin
8. First Man
9. Crazy Rich Asians
Animated Feature
1. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
2. Incredibles 2
3. Isle of Dogs
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet
5. Mirai
---
6. Early Man
7. The Grinch
8. Smallfoot
9. Ruben Brandt, Collector
10. Tito and the Birds
We shall see how smart of foolish I am in the morning!
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