Crowds REALLY small

[Galahad]

Just spent the weekend at WDW and we have never seen August crowds this small. It looked like January! DW joke that the only people there where British or Floridians. The water parks were sparse on a perfect weekend. Epcot and the Epcot resorts where dead. I know things wind down when school starts, but there are a number of States where school would have started this week. In years past, WDW was hoping "the-week-before-school-starts".

But, I'm not sure it's anything Disney is doing/not doing that keeping them away. The casual Disney vacationer isn't going to be affected by the hours controversy, temoprarily closed resorts, etc.

If Vivendi lost multi-billions last quarter while Disney only made a smaller profit, I think we may want to count our blessings a little. DIS may being holding it's own in spited of ME and ABC.

 

[toefungus]

I guess that's why the park hours were so short for this time of they year.

 

[All Aboard]

And, perhaps a very good reason to shorten them even more.

 

[BRERALEX]

nah maybe not shorten themmore just go seasonal

 

[Another Voice]

...or even start closing parks for an entire day...

 

[kenjean]

Maybe they could close the parks at random, thus keeping that magic Disney "surprise" alive.

Picture if you will:

You've just parked your car in the television parking lot at The Disney Studios because the close lots were given to cast members in order to reduce their walk time to work so they don't have to be paid for it. You walk all the way to the front entrance because you don't feel like unloading and folding your double stroller to fit in that &^%^& tram.

After a twenty minute walk, and drenched in sweat, you reach the ticket counter. You pass a family of four asleep on the bench, who had arrived at 7:00 because no one told them early entry had been cancelled.

You take your place in one of the long ques, look at your watch, and smile to yourself. It is 8:55, just in time to enjoy a day in the park before it closes at 3:30.

Suddenly a surprise guest! It is none other than Paul Pressler, in person! Mr. Pressler picks up his paper megaphone, and informs everybody that they are participants in the newest Disney customer service program,

Sprint to EPCOT!!!!

Yes, Mr Pressler explains, exit surveys have shown that you, the guest, care more about your health than attending a certain park on a certain day. Therefore, The Studios will be closed today and Disney's Newest Aerobics Instructors will lead everyone on a brisk walk to EPCOT through the boardwalk.

Several attractive young ladies come out and begin to lead the crowd towards the walkway.

For those of you that can't walk very fast, don't worry, Mr. Pressler said. EPCOT doesn't open until 10:00 anyway.

 

[DisneyKidds]

I love the humor, but AV - you scare me .

...or even start closing parks for an entire day...

 

[Luv2Roam]

Schools in Omaha started last week. Seems each year they go back earlier and earlier to school.

 

[raidermatt]

If Vivendi lost multi-billions last quarter while Disney only made a smaller profit,...

The core businesses of these two companies are very different.

The casual Disney vacationer isn't going to be affected by the hours controversy, temoprarily closed resorts, etc.

In the short term, I agree. The casual customers probably don't even know about the recent cuts until they show up. But remember that hours have been on the decline for about 4 years now. Casual visitors who go every 2-3 years are starting to make their second trips after the reductions began (or more to the point, are making their decsion about whether to go to WDW or somewhere else). If the reductions do affect them, it would only now be starting to show up.

The more intense, recent cuts have been going on for almost a year. While these wouldn't have much effect on the casual guests yet, the will have an effect on the hardcore guests.

Maybe I'm wrong. Maybe the hours have nothing to do with the attendance issues. But if they are part of the cause, its a trend that will take some time to reverse. Since casual guests don't monitor this stuff, just as they didn't know about the cuts, they won't know about and additions.

But that's putting the cart before the horse. As others have pointed out before, Disney's response to downward attendance trends has been to reduce hours.

So if crowds really are small, we can expect further reductions in hours (mid-week park closures?). If it turns out the reduced operating times are a part of the reason for decreased attendance, these cuts will only reduce attendance further, resulting in more cuts....

This is a cycle gcurling and others have pointed out before.

Hopefully, I'm wrong, but if not, it could be quite some time before WDW can truly recover, and that's IF they address the issues the cuts maybe causing.

 

[Galahad]

Maybe the hours have nothing to do with the attendance issues

I'm not defending cuts in hours, or anything else. I just don't think they have anything to do with the attendence problem. The drop off in tourism to Central Florida is tremendous. The once-in-a-blue moon travellers, taken together, are a much more important customer for Orlando right now.

Vivendi's losses include large losses in parts of their business that are the same as Disney. I think it is valid to compare disney to Vivendi, News Corp and other media conglomerates, even of all of their pieces aren't the same.

In any case, it is still depressingly dead in Orlando right now.

 

[raidermatt]

Vivendi's theme parks are a such a small portion of their business, they frequently don't even mention them in updates.

Disney's biggest source of income is their theme parks.

I'm not defending cuts in hours, or anything else. I just don't think they have anything to do with the attendence problem. The drop off in tourism to Central Florida is tremendous. The once-in-a-blue moon travellers, taken together, are a much more important customer for Orlando right now.

I don't pretend to know the definite answer. However, since hours have been on the decline for 4 years, its at least possible that they are having an impact on the once or more every 2-3 year crowd, which is significant.

What's more important is that IF this is causing a problem, the effects are only beginning to show. Improvements made now would take at least a year to really have an effect on the "once in a blue moon" crowd.

There's no doubt that the cuts have at least some impact on attendance. If only 1 person curtails their visits, there is an impact. The only question is if there's enough who are curtailing to make a "significant" impact.

As I said, time will tell; it's just dangerous to not even consider the possibility.

 

[All Aboard]

Galahad, do you mind posting a rough sketch of where you were at what times over the weekend? I've corresponded with a couple of people who were at MK & IOA over the weekend and it seems crowds were "summer-like" but not quite at those two parks. Plus, I'm always interested in changes in crowd flow for personal time management.

I'll be at WDW over Labor Day weekend, so I'll report back on my crowd experience. We've been there over that weekend the past 3 years, so I'll have a base by which to compare.

 

[Bob O]

I think the crowds are smaller because wdw hasnt given alot of people reasons to return!!! Its been years since they added something where people say "wow i have to see that". For people who have been to disney alot and may have had there fill of wdw and want to see other things they will need a reson to go back. And cutbacks arent the thing to make people say "wow they have cutback park hours, what a great time to go!!"
Now if they had a E type attraction to build a pr campaign around it could be a different story.

 

[wdwguide]

This time of the year typically one of the least crowded; I wouldn't be too worried.

 

[Captain Crook]

Crowds are low because (1) kids are already back in school (my kids are in their 3rd week already!) (2) The economy blows (or at least nobody knows what's going on) (3) people ARE travelling less due to 9/11 (check out the airline problems).

Blame it on a poor product if you want and I'll admit that there certainly may be a percentage affixed to that argument but it is in no way the main reason...

 

[WDWHound]

I think we will need to wait till the end of the year before we can say for sure on this one. If Universal's numbers are up this year and Disney's are down, then it would be more likely that Disney's policys are at fault. If both companies are down, then the economy and 911 are the likely factors.

 

[Captain Crook]

Does that really matter Hound? I mean it is basicaly irrelevent if for example Disney ends up down 1% and Universal is up 1%...The fact is things are generally down everywhere...

Also as has been pointed out Universal is giving the park away to locals whereas Disney is not. This will undoubtedly have an affect at the gate...Not a bad thing for them either, I might add...

 

[raidermatt]

Don't get me wrong, I don't mean to say that the problems with the product are the only reason for lower crowds.

Yes, WDW has just moved into a slower time of year.

I'm more concerned about the overall continued softness reported by Disney themselves.

Its very possible, and even probable, that the two biggest reasons for the lower attendance are the economy and reluctance to fly.

But just because the issues with the product (mainly hours cuts, but other cuts also), are probably not the biggest reason, that does not mean it might not be a problem. Disney said bookings were down 10%. Other areas are down as well, but the numbers I've seen thrown around are usually less than 10%. I just saw a report on Las Vegas that said visitation was down 4.4% in June.

I agree, its hard to prove one way or another at this point. But its pretty much a given that WDW knew that ANY decrease in hours would affect attendance. Its just that they believed the costs saved outweighed the drop. I just wonder how accurately they forcasted the long term impact, since we all agree there is a lag between these cuts and the actual impact showing up in attendance.

 

[WDWHound]

It will only matter if Disney is down significantly and Universal is not. I would have to see a 10% or more spread between them before I would call start to call it significant. I agree that things are down everywhere (I am very afraid of American Airlines cancelling my flight next month because of this). But if Disney is down significantly more than Universal, it would indicate to me that other factors were at play.

As for Universal giving the park away to the locals, I agree that its not a bad thing as long as the locals spend enough cash there to make it worthwhile. I am a bit suprised Disney hasn't done more along this line, though the current Epcot rumors indicate they may be thinking about it.

 

[hopemax]

RE: airline travel

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20020814/ap_wo_en_po/us_airlines_overhaul_1

This is an article from the AP wire from last week. Yes, airline travel is down but the reason that the airlines are hurting so badly is the loss of the high-paying business traveler. Domestic passenger travel is down 8%. Personally, I wonder how much of that is due to the "inconvenience" factor rather than people being scared.

Michael Boyd, a Denver-based airline consultant, said American's cost-cutting strategy could backfire if customers are turned off by the inconvenience.

"What airlines have to do is not just get efficiencies up. They also have to get more bodies on the airplanes," Boyd said.

I think the same can be said about Disney.