2011 Dining Plan Pricing

[Faldred]

Okay, now that we have plan prices, we can play "name that credit's value!".

For the geek-inclined who want to follow the math, stay with me. For everyone else, just ignore it and skip to the end.

Simplifications: I'm rounding plan costs up to the nearest dollar. No one, I hope, will quibble over fractions of a penny. I also value the resort refillable mug (QSDP and DxDP) at $0, because otherwise I'd have to deal with a sliding scale of value based on the length of the stay. Suffice it to say that the mug is simply a "bonus" on these plans beyond the credit values.

Okay, if we make the following variables: C (counter service credit), D (deluxe meal credit), S (snack credit), and T (table service credit), and take the plans as simultaneous equations, we get:

Deluxe: 3D + 2S = 79
Basic: 1C + 1T + 1S = 46
QSDP: 2C + 2S = 35​

Unfortunately, that's four unknowns and three equations. Not good. But let's turn S from a variable to a constant, which reduces our unknowns by 1. Snack credits are pretty limited in value, and they're the one element all plans have in common, so it makes a good choice for turning into a "constant". Now we are left with 3 unknowns and 3 equations, which will give us meaningful results.

Solving the first and third equations, treating S as a constant, yields:

3D = 79 - 2S ==> D = (79 - 2S) / 3
2C = 35 - 2S ==> C = (35 - 2S) / 2​

Now that we know what C is, we can solve the second equation:

T = 46 - C - S ==> 46 - ( ( 35 - 2S ) / 2 ) - S​

Now, all that's left is to plug in whatever value we choose for "S", and we can compute all three variables. Last year, I used $3 as a snack credit value; for 2011, that would yield:

C = $14.50, T = $28.50, D = $24.33​

Curiously, changing the value of S affects only C and D. The value of T is constant regardless of what you change S to. (If you expand out the full equation for T, you'll see that you have a +S and a -S, so they cancel out, meaning that T and S are completely independent.)

A CS credit value goes up by the exact amount the snack value drops, and vice-versa. A DxDP meal credit is affected similarly, but scaled by 2/3. So, using different snack credit values, we see:

S = $4.00 ==> C = $13.50, T = $28.50, D = $23.67
S = $3.00 ==> C = $14.50, T = $28.50, D = $24.33
S = $2.00 ==> C = $15.50, T = $28.50, D = $25.00
S = $1.00 ==> C = $16.50, T = $28.50, D = $25.67
S = $0.00 ==> C = $17.50, T = $28.50, D = $26.33​

Similarly, we can solve for child credit values c (child's CS credit), d (child's DxDP meal credit), and t (child's TS credit):

Deluxe: 3d + 2S = 22
Basic: 1c + 1t + 1S = 12
QSDP: 2c + 2S = 12​

Solving for c and d:

3d = 22 - 2S ==> d = (22 - 2S) / 3
2c = 12 - 2S ==> c = (12 - 2S) / 2​

Solving for t, now that we know c:

t = 12 - c - S ==> 12 - ( ( 12 - 2S ) / 2 ) - S = 6​

So, based on out choice of "S", we can determine the values of c and d (since t is a fixed $6.00 value):

S = $4.00 ==> c = $2.00, t = $6.00, d = $4.67
S = $3.00 ==> c = $3.00, t = $6.00, d = $5.33
S = $2.00 ==> c = $4.00, t = $6.00, d = $6.00
S = $1.00 ==> c = $5.00, t = $6.00, d = $6.67
S = $0.00 ==> c = $6.00, t = $6.00, d = $7.33​

​

Using $3 as the value of a snack credit, the 2011 credit values are:

DxDP Meal Credit: $24.33 adult, $5.33 child
TS Credit: $28.50 ($30.50 peak) adult, $6.00 ($7.00 peak) child
CS Credit: $14.50 adult, $3.00 child​

Note that for the "peak" surcharge, the amount of the surcharge goes directly to the TS credit value, since only the basic DDP is affected and that is the one component that is unique to the basic DDP.

 

[crashbb]

Never mind - I see you did consider the "mug problem".

Okay, now that we have plan prices, we can play "name that credit's value!".

For the geek-inclined who want to follow the math, stay with me. For everyone else, just ignore it and skip to the end.

Simplifications: I'm rounding plan costs up to the nearest dollar. No one, I hope, will quibble over fractions of a penny. I also value the resort refillable mug (QSDP and DxDP) at $0, because otherwise I'd have to deal with a sliding scale of value based on the length of the stay. Suffice it to say that the mug is simply a "bonus" on these plans beyond the credit values.

Okay, if we make the following variables: C (counter service credit), D (deluxe meal credit), S (snack credit), and T (table service credit), and take the plans as simultaneous equations, we get:

Deluxe: 3D + 2S = 79
Basic: 1C + 1T + 1S = 46
QSDP: 2C + 2S = 35​

Unfortunately, that's four unknowns and three equations. Not good. But let's turn S from a variable to a constant, which reduces our unknowns by 1. Snack credits are pretty limited in value, and they're the one element all plans have in common, so it makes a good choice for turning into a "constant". Now we are left with 3 unknowns and 3 equations, which will give us meaningful results.

Solving the first and third equations, treating S as a constant, yields:

3D = 79 - 2S ==> D = (79 - 2S) / 3
2C = 35 - 2S ==> C = (35 - 2S) / 2​

Now that we know what C is, we can solve the second equation:

T = 46 - C - S ==> 46 - ( ( 35 - 2S ) / 2 ) - S​

Now, all that's left is to plug in whatever value we choose for "S", and we can compute all three variables. Last year, I used $3 as a snack credit value; for 2011, that would yield:

C = $14.50, T = $28.50, D = $24.33​

Curiously, changing the value of S affects only C and D. The value of T is constant regardless of what you change S to. (If you expand out the full equation for T, you'll see that you have a +S and a -S, so they cancel out, meaning that T and S are completely independent.)

A CS credit value goes up by the exact amount the snack value drops, and vice-versa. A DxDP meal credit is affected similarly, but scaled by 2/3. So, using different snack credit values, we see:

S = $4.00 ==> C = $13.50, T = $28.50, D = $23.67
S = $3.00 ==> C = $14.50, T = $28.50, D = $24.33
S = $2.00 ==> C = $15.50, T = $28.50, D = $25.00
S = $1.00 ==> C = $16.50, T = $28.50, D = $25.67
S = $0.00 ==> C = $17.50, T = $28.50, D = $26.33​

​

Using $3 as the value of a snack credit, the 2011 credit values are:

DxDP Meal Credit: $24.33
TS Credit: $28.50
CS Credit: $14.50​

Note that if there is any Basic DDP-only "peak" surcharge, the amount of the surcharge goes directly to the TS credit value.

 

[Jonesloonybin]

Ok, if I am following your math correct, this would make a child's DxDDP credit value $5.33. Is that correct???

Thanks!

 

[crashbb]

Ok, if I am following your math correct, this would make a child's DxDDP credit value $5.33. Is that correct???

Thanks!

YUP! Kids on the Deluxe get a great deal.

 

[Jonesloonybin]

Thank you! That IS a great deal!

 

[Faldred]

I'll run the child prices later and edit my previous post, so it's all in one place. $5.33 seems in line, though, based on last year's numbers.

I'm considering using $2 as the child baseline snack this year, however, as kids may prefer the lower end options ( popcorn, Mickey bars, etc. )

 

[Sandisw]

The resort room price was exactly the same for 1 or 2 adults as it was for 4 adults. I started with the room and the cost of the room was exactly the same across the board for 1-4 adults. I then added tickets, which obviously changed depending upon the number of people I had...and then I added the dining plan. I can't imagine that the tax would make the difference, because my numbers came out HIGHER every time than Disney's did and you'd think that - if it were the tax - that my numbers would come out lower.

Disney does indeed charge more for extra adults in their rooms. I have paid it when my SIL stayed with us at the cabins.

I just ran room only for AKL for 7 nights. With 2 adults, the price was $2216. The price with 4 adults, was $2554. This amounts to about $50/nt extra, which is the $25 ppn they charge per adult over two. The only resorts that don't incur this charge are the DVC villas.


I am not sure why it didn't come up that way for you, but this would account for why you would be getting different prices for the dining plans.

 

[GraveDanger]

Using $3 as the value of a snack credit, the 2011 credit values are:

DxDP Meal Credit: $24.33
TS Credit: $28.50
CS Credit: $14.50​

So in order for the DDP to make sense I would need to spend over $28.50 on my TS meals and $14.50 on my CS meals plus buy a $3 snack. $14.50 seems high for a CS meal, am I wrong?

 

[GraveDanger]

Next summer, especially with the increase, I am going to buy gift cards ahead of time (I go through ebates.com so get a 3% rebate) for the amount of the dining plans. I will then use those as though I was on the plan and see what happens.

I checked out ebates.com and Disney is not on their giftcard list. The store offers 5% cashback but there is no mention that giftcards are included. Have you made a giftcard transaction lately?

http://www.ebates.com/category/Gift_Cards/cat_id/468.htm

Thanks,

David

 

[Lewisc]

Okay, now that we have plan prices, we can play "name that credit's value!".

Unless something has changed the non-Disney restaurants run a total of your meal then apply a dining discount to bring the cost of your meal down to what Disney is paying them. You need to look at the register as your check is totaled, normally the details aren't printed.

Your math looks about right but Disney doesn't have to allocate every cent. Disney could retain part of our money to cover overhead/profit/etc.

 

[Tara]

Okay, now that we have plan prices, we can play "name that credit's value!".

For the geek-inclined who want to follow the math, stay with me. For everyone else, just ignore it and skip to the end.
*snip yummy math*

I gotta say, I love this post!

 

[Faldred]

Unless something has changed the non-Disney restaurants run a total of your meal then apply a dining discount to bring the cost of your meal down to what Disney is paying them. You need to look at the register as your check is totaled, normally the details aren't printed.

Your math looks about right but Disney doesn't have to allocate every cent. Disney could retain part of our money to cover overhead/profit/etc.

You're absolutely correct. I do this math to provide users of the DDP with an idea of what their "break even" point for each credit is.

For example, it's pretty clear looking at the CS credit "value" that if you routinely pass on dessert, you're likely not saving any money on QSDP, and may even pay more for the plan than you would OOP. (Unless you have several children, who are very cost-effective on any of the plans.) That's important for people to know before they book a plan.

Or, is it worth it to spend 2 TS credits at CRT? At a "value" or "cost" of $28.50/adult credit, probably not, except as noted below. But for a child, it's a no-brainer good deal at $6/credit. (However, spending 2 adult DxDP meal credits at CRT is still at least breaking even if not slightly better.)

For analysis purposes, note that you don't have to get your "best value" at every single meal -- I'd suggest looking at your averages instead of worrying that a specific meal is "too cheap" to be a good value. (E.g., for every trip to a low-end place like The Plaza, there's a trip to Tutto Italia, Marrikesh, or Le Cellier to offset it.) And, of course, using a credit, even non-optimally, is better from a value sense than leaving it unused at all.

 

[Faldred]

So in order for the DDP to make sense I would need to spend over $28.50 on my TS meals and $14.50 on my CS meals plus buy a $3 snack. $14.50 seems high for a CS meal, am I wrong?

That's what the numbers mean. Note these are post-tax prices, and you need to exceed those numbers on average, not necessarily at every specific time you use a credit. Also, bear in mind that today's prices will likely go up over time, but the DDP costs are fixed. (Price protection, if you will.)

At an "average" CS meal, you're looking at a $9 entree, $2.50 beverage, and $3.50 dessert, which comes in a little over that $14.50 mark. If you hit some of the more expensive CS, you can up your average into the "cost effective" zone.

Similar numbers can be run for TS.

For a $3 (after tax) snack, you break even with anything with a list price higher than $2.81. Pretty much all of the really good snacks are at least $2.89, and many are between the $3.50 and $4.00 range. Note that the more "efficient" you are on snacks, the less "efficient" you need to be elsewhere (particularly CS) in order to "break even" or better.

 

[CathieArms]

These are what I figured out as:


DxDP:
All Seasons
$78.99/adult (2010 was $71.99)
$21.99/child (2010 was $20.99)

Is my math wrong?

I would question this last one. My math on this one came out to $25.09." Odd number, I know, but I ran it 3 times.

I priced out a resort for 3 (2 adults and 1 child, aged 15) and added the tickets package. Using those numbers on a 10-day reservation, I came up with $78.99/adult person for dining.

I then priced out the same resort for 4 (2 adults, 1 child aged 15 and 1 child aged 6) and the resort price was exactly the same. I added in the tickets, which came to slightly higher due to the extra person. And then I added in the dining plan for all 4 people.

RESORT COST - COST OF PARK TICKETS - COST OF ADULTS ON DINING PLAN = COST OF CHILD ON DINING PLAN

The remaining cost (child plan cost for 10 days) ended up being $250.09 which, averaged out by 10 days, would be $25.09.

 

[CathieArms]

I think you are missing everybody's point. People want to know what the price per person is. Nobody is going to buy something without knowing what they are paying per head for food.

I agree with you to a point. I would argue, though, that one could take the charge added on for the dining plan (after tickets and resort), and then use that number divided by the cost per day for the family...and that would tell them whether the plan is worthwhile.

For instance, if your cost per day for the entire family is $200, then you could ask yourself whether your family would, indeed, eat $200 in Disney food (including snacks) on average per day. If you would, then it's a good deal. If you wouldn't, then it's not a good deal. But I don't think it's necessary to have it broken down as far as price per person unless - like in my case - you have two families going and each family is paying for their own portion of the dining plan with different number of children and adults per party.

 

[Sandisw]

I checked out ebates.com and Disney is not on their giftcard list. The store offers 5% cashback but there is no mention that giftcards are included. Have you made a giftcard transaction lately?

http://www.ebates.com/category/Gift_Cards/cat_id/468.htm

Thanks,

David

But the Disney store is and when I ordered my gift cards, I placed my order through the Disney store.

Didn't have any problem doing that and getting the 3% rebate (that was what was being offered at the time). The last time I did it was a few months ago.

Maybe things have changed since then.

ETA: I just entered the Disney store through the ebates link and was able to put gift cards in my cart. I didn't complete the transaction because I don't need them right now, but I think you can still get them this way.

 

[GraveDanger]

Using $3 as the value of a snack credit, the 2011 credit values are:

DxDP Meal Credit: $24.33 adult, $5.33 child
TS Credit: $28.50 ($30.50 peak) adult, $6.00 ($7.00 peak) child
CS Credit: $14.50 adult, $3.00 child​

Now all we need to know is how much the OOP prices will increase. Until we have this information it is impossible to know how much you will save (or pay extra) on the DDP.

Any idea on when OOP prices will be released or is this at the discretion of the individual restaurants and does not happen at the same time?

 

[Faldred]

OOP increases are generally up to the individual restaurants. I imagine the Disney-owned locations will likely change prices in some sort of planned fashion, but I have no idea hat that would be.

It looks like the DDP prices have increased by the nearest dollar to 10% for each of the three plans, for adults at least. Will OOP prices go up by 10% or so soon? No idea.

 

[2Tiggies]

So in order for the DDP to make sense I would need to spend over $28.50 on my TS meals and $14.50 on my CS meals plus buy a $3 snack. $14.50 seems high for a CS meal, am I wrong?

Assuming you order the dessert and a beverage, you still need to add tax onto the total. If you take a look at a few sample menus, you will see that it is actually pretty easy to achieve this. You start losing out when you dont want dessert. However some CS locations you can easily spend close on $20 for your CS entitlement, in equivalent cash value.

 

[bytheblood]

I agree with you to a point. I would argue, though, that one could take the charge added on for the dining plan (after tickets and resort), and then use that number divided by the cost per day for the family...and that would tell them whether the plan is worthwhile.

For instance, if your cost per day for the entire family is $200, then you could ask yourself whether your family would, indeed, eat $200 in Disney food (including snacks) on average per day. If you would, then it's a good deal. If you wouldn't, then it's not a good deal. But I don't think it's necessary to have it broken down as far as price per person unless - like in my case - you have two families going and each family is paying for their own portion of the dining plan with different number of children and adults per party.

Your entire post just furthered my point. Nobody is going to buy something without knowing what they are paying for it. Per person or total amount, people still want a dollar amount.