ROFR Thread July to Sept 2023 *PLEASE SEE FIRST POST FOR INSTRUCTIONS & FORMATTING TOOL*

[Cfabar1]

It’s interesting to me that prices are slowly trending up despite better direct incentives and a lack of ROFR. My plan is to, for now, sit out this quarter on resale. As we reach the end of the year and dues start coming in, let’s see where the market goes, especially if the economy starts to soften. I’d love more points, and might even consider BW or BC, but not at the current resale prices I am finding overall.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

It’s interesting to me that prices are slowly trending up despite better direct incentives and a lack of ROFR.

And despite their inherent value being undercut by massive hotel discounts. It’s still fairly marginal, and I’d suggest it’s more likely seasonality than it is a wholesale change.

https://www.fidelityrealestate.com/blog/june-2023-average-dvc-resale-price-per-point/

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-resale-average-sales-prices-for-june-2023/

 

[AwfulWaffle]

Updated!

I'm very sorry, but unfortunately, I can't add those that posted with passes long before this new thread was created and the old thread is locked so I can't even sneak in there to add. I fudged the 6/30 passes to read 7/1, but entering 7/1 for contracts that passed two weeks ago would just skew everything too much. Sorry

Sorry. Glass half empty kind of person so didn’t want to jinx ROFR on my second contract so waited for both to clear to give me peace of mind

 

[JackosinDIS]

And despite their inherent value being undercut by massive hotel discounts. It’s still fairly marginal, and I’d suggest it’s more likely seasonality than it is a wholesale change.

It’s amazing the difference in average price per point between these brokers

 

[strawberrygal903]

strawberrygal903---$110-$18372-150-BWV-Apr-0/22, 239/23, 150/24, 150/25- sent 7/8

 

[GrumpyInPhilly]

It’s interesting to me that prices are slowly trending up despite better direct incentives and a lack of ROFR. My plan is to, for now, sit out this quarter on resale. As we reach the end of the year and dues start coming in, let’s see where the market goes, especially if the economy starts to soften. I’d love more points, and might even consider BW or BC, but not at the current resale prices I am finding overall.

I've just decided this same thing for myself.

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

It’s interesting to me that prices are slowly trending up despite better direct incentives and a lack of ROFR. My plan is to, for now, sit out this quarter on resale. As we reach the end of the year and dues start coming in, let’s see where the market goes, especially if the economy starts to soften. I’d love more points, and might even consider BW or BC, but not at the current resale prices I am finding overall.

The risk is that Disney reactivates ROFR which will almost certainly quickly raise the price floor.

 

[GrumpyInPhilly]

The risk is that Disney reactivates ROFR which will almost certainly quickly raise the price floor.

Yes, you are correct on this and if it happens so be it. Personally, I don't need another contract but would add on at the right price.

 

[DonMacGregor]

It’s interesting to me that prices are slowly trending up despite better direct incentives and a lack of ROFR. My plan is to, for now, sit out this quarter on resale. As we reach the end of the year and dues start coming in, let’s see where the market goes, especially if the economy starts to soften. I’d love more points, and might even consider BW or BC, but not at the current resale prices I am finding overall.

I think it's a combination of several factors. Many of the fire sale contracts that went ridiculously cheap back in February through April were sold by people either worried about the economy going forward, or already planning to sell and willing to accept lower offers for fear that the bottom could fall much further. Most, if not all, of those "panic sellers" have been weeded out, and there are far fewer owners in situations that are economy-dependent. The lack of ROFR as at least a perceived backstop against prices falling too low also contributed to a general fear that there may not be a bottom.

While prices may not have rebounded to pre-2023 levels, they do seem to be creeping back up. The same people who didn't feel the pressure to sell 2 months ago are in the same situation today. Obviously, there are still contracts out there selling in the February-April price range, but I'd wager that most of those are, again, people who "need" to sell now, and can't wait for the market to rebound. There is always going to be some number of those contracts entering the market. I think that's supported by the proliferation of contracts on the market that have been listed for longer than 3 or 4 months.

As a personal anecdote, I have added 3 more resale contracts this year, including OKW, BRV, and AUL. Comparing the prices from earlier this year, same use year and generally similar contract size, I'm seeing nowhere near the number of (if any) contracts listed or selling at those prices.

 

[Rex1993]

Yes, you are correct on this and if it happens so be it. Personally, I don't need another contract but would add on at the right price.

I wouldn't be very worried about ROFR in this interest rate environment. DVD has a lot of capital intensive projects going right now.

 

[tidefan]

I think it's a combination of several factors. Many of the fire sale contracts that went ridiculously cheap back in February through April were sold by people either worried about the economy going forward, or already planning to sell and willing to accept lower offers for fear that the bottom could fall much further. Most, if not all, of those "panic sellers" have been weeded out, and there are far fewer owners in situations that are economy-dependent. The lack of ROFR as at least a perceived backstop against prices falling too low also contributed to a general fear that there may not be a bottom.

While prices may not have rebounded to pre-2023 levels, they do seem to be creeping back up. The same people who didn't feel the pressure to sell 2 months ago are in the same situation today. Obviously, there are still contracts out there selling in the February-April price range, but I'd wager that most of those are, again, people who "need" to sell now, and can't wait for the market to rebound. There is always going to be some number of those contracts entering the market. I think that's supported by the proliferation of contracts on the market that have been listed for longer than 3 or 4 months.

As a personal anecdote, I have added 3 more resale contracts this year, including OKW, BRV, and AUL. Comparing the prices from earlier this year, same use year and generally similar contract size, I'm seeing nowhere near the number of (if any) contracts listed or selling at those prices.

I think that one thing is that prices were getting to a point where it just made more sense to hang on to them and rent them out rather than sell, unless, like you said, you needed quick cash.

We had toyed around with listing our VGF contract, but with prices getting as low as they are and the fact that I was still, at least for this year, able to get into the VGF1 building at 11 months, we have decided to hang on to them.

We can always use them at Aulani

 

[DonMacGregor]

I think that one thing is that prices were getting to a point where it just made more sense to hang on to them and rent them out rather than sell, unless, like you said, you needed quick cash.

We had toyed around with listing our VGF contract, but with prices getting as low as they are and the fact that I was still, at least for this year, able to get into the VGF1 building at 11 months, we have decided to hang on to them.

We can always use them at Aulani

Very true. And I'm still waiting on that massive recession that's going to begin in January 2023...

Remember this thread?:

Wow DVC Prices!!!

 

[Galactic Reversal]

I think that one thing is that prices were getting to a point where it just made more sense to hang on to them and rent them out rather than sell, unless, like you said, you needed quick cash.

We had toyed around with listing our VGF contract, but with prices getting as low as they are and the fact that I was still, at least for this year, able to get into the VGF1 building at 11 months, we have decided to hang on to them.

We can always use them at Aulani

Bingo, there is a floor without ROFR in an economy where everyone still wants to vacation.

 

[Cfabar1]

I think ROFR is unlikely to come back in the immediate term for a few reasons:
1. Disney needs to get rid of debt. The balance sheet isn't in a good place.
2. Disney has stated it will be bringing back a dividend by the end of the year.
3. Interest rates continue to go up, and will likely go a little higher still. Getting the money to take on debt is getting more expensive.
4. Disney will most likely be forced to make a huge purchase of at least $9 billion for the remaining stake in Hulu in less than a year. Maybe a deal can be reached, but I think the sale is the most likely option.
5. Disney Stock is worth a lot less, so doing any of these things is more expensive.

While all of this is going on....
1. Disney World has had to resume and enhance discounts to fill rooms. If they buy the points back, they're stuck with more inventory they need to fill.
2. DVC has had to up the incentives game substantially to move sales of new resorts.
3. DVC expansion plans on having many new resorts under simultaneous sales. (Potentially Poly, VGF2, Cabins, Aulani, and Riviera will all be for sale as new direct sales at the same time).
4. DVC continues to find ways to make resale a less compelling and desirable product to own.

I could be completely wrong. It might come back tomorrow, however, my guess is that the ROFR Monster stays asleep at least through the rest of the year, maybe longer...

 

[JackosinDIS]

I think ROFR is unlikely to come back in the immediate term for a few reasons:
1. Disney needs to get rid of debt. The balance sheet isn't in a good place.
2. Disney has stated it will be bringing back a dividend by the end of the year.
3. Interest rates continue to go up, and will likely go a little higher still. Getting the money to take on debt is getting more expensive.
4. Disney will most likely be forced to make a huge purchase of at least $9 billion for the remaining stake in Hulu in less than a year. Maybe a deal can be reached, but I think the sale is the most likely option.
5. Disney Stock is worth a lot less, so doing any of these things is more expensive.

While all of this is going on....
1. Disney World has had to resume and enhance discounts to fill rooms. If they buy the points back, they're stuck with more inventory they need to fill.
2. DVC has had to up the incentives game substantially to move sales of new resorts.
3. DVC expansion plans on having many new resorts under simultaneous sales. (Potentially Poly, VGF2, Cabins, Aulani, and Riviera will all be for sale as new direct sales at the same time).
4. DVC continues to find ways to make resale a less compelling and desirable product to own.

I could be completely wrong. It might come back tomorrow, however, my guess is that the ROFR Monster stays asleep at least through the rest of the year, maybe longer...

Agree! I’m not sure it will ever come back… they will just push harder to differentiate between the direct and resale products and work on the basis that there are enough direct buyers who have no idea that the resale market exists (plus enough people who will want the ability to book at the new resorts).

 

[Epcot Forever Forever]

I could be completely wrong. It might come back tomorrow, however, my guess is that the ROFR Monster stays asleep at least through the rest of the year, maybe longer...

I would guess it returns for the resorts they were less aggressive with (Poly, BRV, BCV, BWV, probably missing a few) this year, but for some of the others maybe not until even 2025, given how many points I think Disney holds.

DVC clearly underestimated the impact of increasing OKW and SSR over $200 and would up with just an enormous pile of points. And without ROFR to prop up prices the gap between Direct and Resale on those resorts is so massive that it’s nearly impossible to convince someone to spend more than double on direct so they can, what, use the points at “preferred view” one bedrooms at Riviera every decade or so?

But then Disney can’t responsibly ROFR enough contracts at those resorts to set a price floor because they have *so many* points already.

Not to mention they have 4 resorts in active sales and 2 more on the way…getting even more points is probably not an exciting prospect for them.

 

[emchen]

While all of this is going on....
1. Disney World has had to resume and enhance discounts to fill rooms. If they buy the points back, they're stuck with more inventory they need to fill.

But then Disney can’t responsibly ROFR enough contracts at those resorts to set a price floor because they have *so many* points already.

Not to mention they have 4 resorts in active sales and 2 more on the way…getting even more points is probably not an exciting prospect for them.

…how do we explain the Magical Beginnings incentive to buyback points from new owners at $22/pt?

 

[Galactic Reversal]

Sorry. Glass half empty kind of person so didn’t want to jinx ROFR on my second contract so waited for both to clear to give me peace of mind

Thanks for posting. Even if it doesn’t make the list here, it’s contributing to the analysis over at dvcrofr.com

 

[Rex1993]

…how do we explain the Magical Beginnings incentive to buyback points from new owners at $22/pt?

Interest rates are high and that's a sneaky way to get people into larger point purchases and resultingly higher loans.

 

[Cfabar1]

…how do we explain the Magical Beginnings incentive to buyback points from new owners at $22/pt?

They needed to find a way to discount to move inventory. Direct DVC sales at the beginning of the year prior to magical beginnings were incredibly sluggish.