Watching the tropics... again (aka Irma)

[minniegirl19]

invest 93L has formed off the coast of Africa. The weather channel has started talking about it in between the coverage for Harvey and the depression off of SC. Around a week from now it will be nearing some of the Caribbean islands. After that the path is still unknown because it's so far out still but some type of impact to the US (Florida region) is somewhat likely. Just a heads up for people heading down in a week and a half 2 weeks to keep an eye on it.

 

[Lehuaann]

Thank you. We were evacuated from FW last year during Matthew and are set to arrive there again in 11 days. We will definitely keep an eye on this.

 

[Tonyz]

After that the path is still unknown because it's so far out still but some type of impact to the US (Florida region) is somewhat likely.

Saying it's somewhat likely that it's gonna hit Florida is absolutely wrong right now. I'm not saying it won't, but right now no one has any idea what's gonna happen. It could fizzle out after five days. There's no predictions or estimates about it impacting US land at all yet.

 

[Tonyz]

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al932017_analogs.png

These are the top 10 most likely tracks for 93. As you can see only one of them gets anywhere near Florida, and even that one doesn't hit land, much less Orlando.

Predictions this far out are pretty tough. But right now at least it seems that best current estimates show that this isn't something to worry about in the slightest.

 

[Klayfish]

Saying it's somewhat likely that it's gonna hit Florida is absolutely wrong right now. I'm not saying it won't, but right now no one has any idea what's gonna happen. It could fizzle out after five days. There's no predictions or estimates about it impacting US land at all yet.

Exactly. It's a wave that just left the coast of Africa. It's literally thousands and thousands of miles away right now. To say an impact on Florida is likely is crazy. Nobody has the slightest clue. Relax... If it's hovering 200 miles off the coast 2 weeks from now, then worry about it. For now, it's meaningless.

 

[Alesia]

People who worry about the weather more than a few days out really shouldn't book trips in September or October. It's just going to mean a lot of unnecessary stress.

 

[ucfknight]

Call me when the center gets far enough West to be even with the the Eastern tip of Cuba and it is no more than 100 miles North of that location. Until that happens the only thing "likely" with a tropical wave like this is in its current position is either dissipation or a turn north into the North Atlantic well before it gets anywhere close to Florida.

 

[Patrick G.]

Even if this was on a collision course for Florida, would this adversely impact weather in Orlando next week (Labor Day week)? Any weather threats at all for the area next week?

 

[minniegirl19]

everyone needs to chill out and not get worked up about my post. yesterday THE WEATHER CHANNEL said Florida keep an eye on this hence why I said somewhat likely (clearly should have used different verbage). yes its far out and no one has any clue where its going but a lot of people do not pay attention to things like this I was just trying to help so people are aware of the potential. luckily today they are talking about a fall like trough coming down which would then push it away from the US but if it doesn't it will be something to pay close attention to. again maybe the verbage I used wasn't right but this post is more about being aware of things going on in the tropics. I am MOVING to Florida in two weeks so I am closely monitoring it to. k thanks.

 

[minniegirl19]

Even if this was on a collision course for Florida, would this adversely impact weather in Orlando next week (Labor Day week)? Any weather threats at all for the area next week?

the system is supposed to be just getting to the island area (st Lucia, Puerto Rico etc) on Monday so you should be fine for that week. if it had any impact it would be late late week. if a trough comes down it will have no impact on the US if it doesn't it potentially could.

 

[ravenclawtrekkie]

everyone needs to chill out and not get worked up about my post. yesterday THE WEATHER CHANNEL said Florida keep an eye on this hence why I said somewhat likely (clearly should have used different verbage). yes its far out and no one has any clue where its going but a lot of people do not pay attention to things like this I was just trying to help so people are aware of the potential. luckily today they are talking about a fall like trough coming down which would then push it away from the US but if it doesn't it will be something to pay close attention to. again maybe the verbage I used wasn't right but this post is more about being aware of things going on in the tropics. I am MOVING to Florida in two weeks so I am closely monitoring it to. k thanks.

The Weather Channel loves to hype up all kinds of non-events.

Once you move here, you're going to find out quick that most FL residents don't worry about anything that isn't already a category 3 storm or above. Anything less is just an excuse to throw a hurricane party.

I'm not trying to be rude or anything, it's just not a concern this far ahead of time.

 

[ucfknight]

yesterday THE WEATHER CHANNEL said Florida keep an eye on this

A network about weather wants you to keep tuning in for something that is incredibly unlikely to have any effect on you so that you can help boost their advertising rates? Shocking.

 

[bumbershoot]

yesterday THE WEATHER CHANNEL

The people here who live in FL ignore that channel.

I am MOVING to Florida in two weeks so I am closely monitoring it to.

Once you move you'll find out that Floridiana don't worry about this stuff. Have a plan to put into action, sure.

Though that plan for many means "go to wdw because hard weather is rare there, it's safer, we'll be taken care of, and food is all around".

But worry? Nope.


Might as well adapt now. Turn off TWC and find what residents DO pay attention to.

 

[minniegirl19]

the weather channel before Harvey even became a cat 4 was predicting at least 30 inches of rain in the Houston area and said it was a conservative number. I tune into the weather channel everyday (missed my calling as a meteorologist) but they predicted this correctly and no one listened. I will always tune in to them and other outlets to get different view points but I will never ignore them.

 

[Mr. Drauer]

The people here who live in FL ignore that channel.



Once you move you'll find out that Floridiana don't worry about this stuff. Have a plan to put into action, sure.

Though that plan for many means "go to wdw because hard weather is rare there, it's safer, we'll be taken care of, and food is all around".

But worry? Nope.


Might as well adapt now. Turn off TWC and find what residents DO pay attention to.

We (me) residents tend to not pay too much attention to any of the weather stuff, as even the local channels are in full on hype mode as soon as a storm is named. It is always funny to watch the local folks (and TWC) when they are "dissapointed" if a storm veers off and no longer is a story. Atlantic storms so rarely have a chance to impact Central Florida as the prevailing pattern hooks them north on the Gulf Stream towards Bermuda. The weather folks are super hyped right now for an active season as we just passed the 25th anv of Andrew, the 12 anv of Katrina, and obviously all of the horrible scenes in Texas.

 

[Klayfish]

the weather channel before Harvey even became a cat 4 was predicting at least 30 inches of rain in the Houston area and said it was a conservative number. I tune into the weather channel everyday (missed my calling as a meteorologist) but they predicted this correctly and no one listened. I will always tune in to them and other outlets to get different view points but I will never ignore them.

Yes, and they've missed a ton too. I totally agree that you shouldn't completely ignore them, no doubt. But to even put a tropical wave that's thousands of miles from our shores on your radar (pardon the pun) is completely unnecessary. If you're a weather geek, and I mean that jokingly because I enjoy watching it too, fantastic. But nothing to truly "watch" from a going to WDW perspective.

 

[North of Mouse]

the weather channel before Harvey even became a cat 4 was predicting at least 30 inches of rain in the Houston area and said it was a conservative number. I tune into the weather channel everyday (missed my calling as a meteorologist) but they predicted this correctly and no one listened. I will always tune in to them and other outlets to get different view points but I will never ignore them.

South LA girl here and I agree with you. Also disagree with those saying that they don't worry about hurricanes in general unless they're a Cat 3, or basically 'on' them. I know plenty of people that do worry, and are very respectful and don't throw parties. If you've been in a bad one - or just several that weren't necessarily catastrophic - you feel more watchful. Aug/Sept. are ideal atmospheres in general for hurricanes.

 

[ucfknight]

the weather channel before Harvey even became a cat 4 was predicting at least 30 inches of rain in the Houston area and said it was a conservative number. I tune into the weather channel everyday (missed my calling as a meteorologist) but they predicted this correctly and no one listened. I will always tune in to them and other outlets to get different view points but I will never ignore them.

No one listened? The Weather Channel was not alone in predicting significant rain and flooding.

From the official National Hurricane Center forecast when Harvey had just reformed to be a tropical storm (not yet a hurricane) in the Bay of Campeche:
Life-threatening flooding is expected across much of the Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 12 to 20 inches, with isolated amounts as high as 30 inches, from Friday through early next week. Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard.

Later that night right after it was upgraded to a Cat 1 Hurricane:
Devastating and life-threatening flooding is expected across the middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 25 inches, with isolated amounts as high as 35 inches, from Friday through next Wednesday. Please refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information on the flooding hazard.

 

[minniegirl19]

I didn't make this post to argue with anyone and not even meant for it to sound like Disney would take a direct hit. all I saw on tv was a possible path and saw a post made a week to two weeks ago about invest 92L to monitor it (which did bring more rain then normal to central florida) so I thought I'd make one about invest 93L. Not to cause panic or for people to come at me. I wasn't saying it's going to become this big hurricane but even if it became a rain event I just thought people would want to monitor it. Sorry to everyone who took it the wrong way.

 

[Tonyz]

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al932017_analogs.png

The top 10 analog tracks for this thing have been updates. Not a single one of the 10 tracks has it hitting Florida.

However, if you're in North Carolina or the Northeast Coast, maybe start paying a little attention to it as it gets closer to America.