pilferk
Jambo Wildbunch Gang
- Joined
- Nov 17, 2005
Ah, but the question is what value the resale market will put on years 2042-2057, not what value Disney can make up for those years. If the current difference in resale value between OKW and SSR is mostly due to the extra years, then the resale maket is putting a price of $5 on years 2042-2054. At most, the market would value 2055-2057 for $1 total.
Note - if you do want to value 2042-2054 via Disney prices, it's $92 vs $94 currently.
Again, speculating and using numbers YOU like to bolster it...which isn't any different than what I did, really.....right?
You're "assuming" the difference is entirely about ending date. I'm not sure that's a safe assumption.
As for Disney's prices, I'd say they're MORE fuel for the fire that OKW will sell for MORE than SSR does, currently. Again, you're "assuming" the only difference is ending dates. Are you SURE about that? I'm certainly not.
You're also comparing a "promotion" price to an actual retail price. The REAL difference (since the promo is a subsidy only there until SSR sells out) would be $104 to $92....a difference of about $12. Close to the $1 per year I came up with.
However, you don't need to own at OKW to take advantage of those larger rooms or smaller point values. There are almost always OKW rooms at the 7 month mark. Have we ever had reports of somebody not being able to get a Studio/1BR/2BR at OKW at the 7 month mark?
Ignoring ending date, the one advantage I see for owning at OKW over SSR is the ability to get a cheaper GV. Those are often gone at the 7 month mark, so you need to own at OKW if you want GV's. I'm not sure what kind of value the resale market will put on that - but I bet it will be pretty small.
Back to the addage of "buy where you want to stay". Having those advantages (size, value, etc) at your home resort should add SOME value to the points (and I think current resale prices show that resort "differences" DO add to the resale price). What value, we don't know, exactly, because there's no way to instantly make them "equivalent" in all terms BEFORE the extension goes into effect. You can "bet" it's pretty small....more power to you....but are you willing to gamble a significant amount of money (real or proceeds of resale later) on being right? I'm not sure I would. Luckily, I have the luxury of not having to make this decision.....