Star Wars: Galaxy's Edge News - Updated 2/28/19

[TheMaxRebo]

It's hard to guess exact figures since we don't have opening dates, but I'd expect more than a Pandora sized boost to Disneyland. And I can't imagine Magic Kingdom doesn't also increase with Star Wars opening. I see a lot of people going for Star Wars, but doing everything while they are there. Galaxy's Edge only has 2 rides so it's not exactly the only thing you'd want out of a trip. Granted that boost might only be for December so possibly minimal with Disneyland still coming out on top. These are probably pretty good ballpark estimates though.

it's definitely hard to estimate the impact to other parks - plus just going out a few years, what will the economy be like, etc. ... and there does just seem to be more people going to Orlando in general so does everything get a small pump from that, etc.

I do see a lot of people that want to go for Galaxy's Edge but really have no interest in the rest of WDW - but, like you said, I am sure there are others that at least will say "well, we are here, might as well check out these other parks" ... wounder if Universal also gets a bump from that group as well - I am sure there is at least some crossover that would want to see the Harry Potter stuff while they are in town

 

[TheMaxRebo]

Yeah, that's why I figure 2020 will be THE year that shakes everything up (if it's going to happen at all). The first full year that SW:GE is, as Palpatine would say, "fully armed and operational". It'll be interesting to watch, that's for sure!

Agree about 2020 being the big year - guess I could try going out further ... really have full year of Galaxy's Edge at Disneyland and DHS, and not sure what else - I think Rat should be open at EPCOT some times that year, but Tron and Guardians I don't think are until 20201

So 2020 could be:
#1: Disneyland - 21.24m (+5%)
#2: Magic Kingdom - 20.25m (-0.0%)
#6: DHS: 13.8m (+7.5%)
#7: Animal Kingdom: 13.0m (+0%)
#9: EPCOT: 11.55 (+5%)


Then who the heck knows in 2021 as who knows when Guardians and Tron open and then you have the start of the 50th celebration for WDW

 

[Iowamomof4]

It's also hard to estimate how many will make a short trip specifically to do the Star Wars stuff and then head back home. Then again, the longer your trip is, the better odds you have at getting FP's made for both attractions. So, who knows? I've also been mulling what crowds will be like at wdw next year before it opens in the fall. Will there be a rush of people trying to get one last trip in before the insanity of SW descends upon Orlando? Or will people be more likely to put their trip off a few months so they can go after it's open? Maybe there will be enough in each group that crowds will be mostly level until it opens.

 

[wareagle57]

It’s very possible it could be #2. It’s also very possible DL could jump MK.

Does DLR count attendance the same way they do here? The first park you enter for the day is the one that gets credit? If that is the case I can definitely see that happening. Even without Star Wars, last time I was there I started all 4 days at DL instead of DCA. I can't remember why. I'm sure I planned to DR DCA one day, but I think the way EMH worked that never happened. I think there was only 1 day where DLR had the EMH somehow, and that was the day I wanted to use my 1 Early Entry.

 

[rteetz]

well in 2017 you had:

#1: Magic Kingdom - 20.45m - up from 20.395m in 2016 (+0.27%)
#2: Disneyland - 18.3m - up from 17.943m in 2016 (+2%)
#6: Animal Kingdom - 12.5m - up from 10.844m in 2016 (+15.3%)
#7: EPCOT - 12.2m - up from 11.712m in 2016 (+4.2%)
#9: DHS - 10.722m - down from 10.776m in 2016 (-.05%)

So you figure in 2018 it seems like attendance at EPCOT is down and, at least for 2nd half of the year will be up in DHS (maybe not as much of a bump as Pandora did for AK, but some). So maybe half the effect. AK will still be up a bit more as Pandora wasn't open for all of 2017. MK my guess might be down a smidge this year and then Disneyland should be up a bit just with the new PIXAR stuff and rivers of America opening up there is some new stuff

So 2018 might looks something like:
#1: Magic Kingdom - 20.35m (-0.5%)
#2: Disneyland - 18.4m (+0.5%)
#6: Animal Kingdom: 13.0m (+4%)
#8: DHS: 11.85m (+10%)
#9: EPCOT: 11.6 (-5%)

Then in 2019, Dinseyland will get a big bump for Star Wars: Galaxy's edge - for 1/2 the year, but probably at least the impact of Pandora (at least by # of people if not %). Magic Kingdom will likely be flat or slightly down again as nothing new in 2019. Animal Kingdom will probably plateau, DHS will get some bump for Galaxy's Edge but only a few months but then full year of Toy Story Land, and EPCOT likely slightly down again

So 2019 could be:
#1: Magic Kingdom - 20.25m (-0.5%)
#2: Disneyland - 20.24m (+10%)
#6: Animal Kingdom: 13.0m (+0%)
#8: DHS: 12.85m (+8.4%)
#9: EPCOT: 11.0 (-5%)

So I see Disneyland at just about the same as MK as given the limited size and how crowded it is already, I have trouble seeing more than 10% more (knowing that is only half the year)

It’s obviously hard to estimate but I think we see a 15% or more jump at Disneyland with Star Wars. If pandora gave AK that much of a jump surely that could happen to DL with Star Wars.

 

[rteetz]

Does DLR count attendance the same way they do here? The first park you enter for the day is the one that gets credit? If that is the case I can definitely see that happening. Even without Star Wars, last time I was there I started all 4 days at DL instead of DCA. I can't remember why. I'm sure I planned to DR DCA one day, but I think the way EMH worked that never happened. I think there was only 1 day where DLR had the EMH somehow, and that was the day I wanted to use my 1 Early Entry.

As far as I know all domestic Disney parks are counted the same.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

It's also hard to estimate how many will make a short trip specifically to do the Star Wars stuff and then head back home. Then again, the longer your trip is, the better odds you have at getting FP's made for both attractions. So, who knows? I've also been mulling what crowds will be like at wdw next year before it opens in the fall. Will there be a rush of people trying to get one last trip in before the insanity of SW descends upon Orlando? Or will people be more likely to put their trip off a few months so they can go after it's open? Maybe there will be enough in each group that crowds will be mostly level until it opens.

We also don't know what type of hard ticket events they will have for Galaxy's Edge - will they cater to the people that want to come down just for that and say, here is a $499 even that gets you in before park opening and guarantees you time with a (fairly) empty Galaxy's Edge - and they do that and nothing else ... who knows

As to people wanting to avoid the crowds and that changing their plans ... I could see some change around what month they come - so if they normally come in November they may move it up to avoid the crowds, stuff like that. Maybe some that only go every other year would tweak their plans to go next year instead or something, but I don't think huge swings. I see other people just saying they will still go but avoid DHS that sort of thing

 

[rteetz]

Agree about 2020 being the big year - guess I could try going out further ... really have full year of Galaxy's Edge at Disneyland and DHS, and not sure what else - I think Rat should be open at EPCOT some times that year, but Tron and Guardians I don't think are until 20201

So 2020 could be:
#1: Disneyland - 21.24m (+5%)
#2: Magic Kingdom - 20.25m (-0.0%)
#6: DHS: 13.8m (+7.5%)
#7: Animal Kingdom: 13.0m (+0%)
#9: EPCOT: 11.55 (+5%)


Then who the heck knows in 2021 as who knows when Guardians and Tron open and then you have the start of the 50th celebration for WDW

I don’t see MK just remaining flat during this time. More people are traveling to WDW for Toy Story, Pandora, and Star Wars which overall means more will visit MK. So while it won’t jump nearly as much as DL will it should increase a little.

 

[TheMaxRebo]

It’s obviously hard to estimate but I think we see a 15% or more jump at Disneyland with Star Wars. If pandora gave AK that much of a jump surely that could happen to DL with Star Wars.

I was thinking that - but Pandora was open for an extra month in 2017 than I think Galaxy's Edge will be open in 2019 at Disneyland ... and you are starting with a larger starting point - so even the 10% is about the same number of people that AK went up by even though smaller percentage

And there just isn't that much room in Disneyland to add that many more people I think ... but who knows. I mean, a 15% more more jump for 2019 would be 2.76m more people in just 6 months going to Disneyland ... that would be 15,000 more people per day in an already crowded park

 

[TheMaxRebo]

I don’t see MK just remaining flat during this time. More people are traveling to WDW for Toy Story, Pandora, and Star Wars which overall means more will visit MK. So while it won’t jump nearly as much as DL will it should increase a little.

I think that is probably fair, just trying to balance everything - as will some people that don't care about Star Wars not go (or at least as often) then? Will people that normally do multiple MK days now do fewer MK days and more DHS days?

In the end you are probably right that it will go up a bit - just trying to be a bit conservative


Anyway, fun to project and think about though I think!

 

[Iowamomof4]

Thanks for the discussion! It's fun to speculate (imo).

 

[BrianL]

it's definitely hard to estimate the impact to other parks - plus just going out a few years, what will the economy be like, etc. ... and there does just seem to be more people going to Orlando in general so does everything get a small pump from that, etc.

I do see a lot of people that want to go for Galaxy's Edge but really have no interest in the rest of WDW - but, like you said, I am sure there are others that at least will say "well, we are here, might as well check out these other parks" ... wounder if Universal also gets a bump from that group as well - I am sure there is at least some crossover that would want to see the Harry Potter stuff while they are in town

I think Universal will definitely get a bump. All the big Star Wars fans I know like Universal better anyway, and aren't really "Disney People." They like action and sci-fi and Uni has a lot of that. I'd say they'd like Pandora, but most people I know hate that movie.

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

I don’t see MK just remaining flat during this time. More people are traveling to WDW for Toy Story, Pandora, and Star Wars which overall means more will visit MK. So while it won’t jump nearly as much as DL will it should increase a little.

For sure.

 

[DizFanFamily]

Does DLR count attendance the same way they do here? The first park you enter for the day is the one that gets credit? If that is the case I can definitely see that happening. Even without Star Wars, last time I was there I started all 4 days at DL instead of DCA. I can't remember why. I'm sure I planned to DR DCA one day, but I think the way EMH worked that never happened. I think there was only 1 day where DLR had the EMH somehow, and that was the day I wanted to use my 1 Early Entry.

From my experience, most days DLR opens an hour before DCA - thus we always started in DLR, even if just for 1 or 2 rides and then pop over for rope drop at DCA. It definitely would skew their numbers.

 

[cadien]

It's also hard to estimate how many will make a short trip specifically to do the Star Wars stuff and then head back home.

With the hotel included, I'm expecting that to generally be the case. Certainly for us. Cost alone.

 

[Phicinfan]

I don’t see MK just remaining flat during this time. More people are traveling to WDW for Toy Story, Pandora, and Star Wars which overall means more will visit MK. So while it won’t jump nearly as much as DL will it should increase a little.

I also wonder about cause and effect...
One SW will be a huge draw, but some will avoid at first due to crush of crowds. MK will be there to enjoy with a Tron added soon.

Plus, with the 50th coming, some may be like me and want to get trips in before the huge crush to celebrate that.

So I am with you, MK will get a boost in 2020, due to draw of SW:GE still having huge tug.

But I also would not be shocked to see DL take #1 due to SW.

 

[monica9]

I hope we can stay on topic from now on please...

Was this directed to my question about when it will open and the crowd levels? I thought this was the thread about GE news so figured it would fit best in this thread.

 

[rteetz]

Was this directed to my question about when it will open and the crowd levels? I thought this was the thread about GE news so figured it would fit best in this thread.

No this was due to some now deleted posts.

 

[monica9]

No this was due to some now deleted posts.

Oh ok. I wasn't sure if I posted it in the wrong thread.

 

[twebber55]

it's definitely hard to estimate the impact to other parks - plus just going out a few years, what will the economy be like, etc. ... and there does just seem to be more people going to Orlando in general so does everything get a small pump from that, etc.

I do see a lot of people that want to go for Galaxy's Edge but really have no interest in the rest of WDW - but, like you said, I am sure there are others that at least will say "well, we are here, might as well check out these other parks" ... wounder if Universal also gets a bump from that group as well - I am sure there is at least some crossover that would want to see the Harry Potter stuff while they are in town

i would say a very small minority will only do DHS and not the rest of wdw but thats just my opinion