I started typing this out but then I figured maybe a chart format would work better. None of us really knows what the data that the DVC higher ups are looking at looks like. We keep talking about moving points from this use year, to next use year, and inventory shortages this year vs next year. I know pretty much everyone here knows that there are multiple use years, but I think when theorizing, it's hard to keep track of that in our brains.
Below is a quick chart based on a couple of assumptions:
1) Resorts re-open on July 1, 2020
2) This relates to cancellations made between April 1 and June 30, 2020
Leave Borrowed Points in Current Use Year | Move Borrowed Points Back to Original Use Year |
Use Year | 1st Day of Use | Last Day of Use | Total Days of Use | 1st Day of Use | Last Day of Use | Total Days of Use |
February | 7/1/2020 | 1/31/2021 | 214 | 7/1/2020 | 1/31/2023 | 944 |
March | 7/1/2020 | 2/28/2021 | 242 | 7/1/2020 | 2/28/2023 | 972 |
April | 7/1/2020 | 3/31/2021 | 273 | 7/1/2020 | 3/31/2023 | 1003 |
June | Expired | Expired | 0 | 7/1/2020 | 5/31/2022 | 699 |
August | 7/1/2020 | 7/31/2020 | 30 | 7/1/2020 | 7/31/2022 | 760 |
September | 7/1/2020 | 8/31/2020 | 61 | 7/1/2020 | 8/31/2022 | 791 |
October | 7/1/2020 | 9/30/2020 | 91 | 7/1/2020 | 9/30/2022 | 821 |
December | 7/1/2020 | 11/30/2020 | 152 | 7/1/2020 | 11/30/2022 | 882 |
Based on this chart, here is my observation:
If they kept to the normal rules and didn't move borrowed points back into their original use year, those with June, August, September and possibly October Use Year's would more than likely see points expire. This would suck for those owners, but be beneficial to the system.
However, what that does is creates a major log jam between July 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021. Between that period, you will have 3 categories of bookings
1) Normal bookings (pre-covid)
2) Those with banked points that are set to expire (due to cancellations).
3) Those with borrowed points that are set to expire (due to cancellations).
As has been discussed at lengths, there is not much DVC can do about the first two. However, by allowing borrowed points to be moved back into their original use year, your taking that 3rd category out of the picture for the most part. Yes, this will create some extra points in the system for the next few years, but these points now have a much longer shelf life. They won't all be used at once which is easier for the system to absorb.
Every year, there are a number of points that expire naturally, and these end up getting used by DVC to rent out for cash reservations for their own profit. The extra points in the system over the next few years should be absorbed (atleast partially) by these expiring points. The real loser at the end of the day is DVC who will have much lower inventory they can sell for their profit.