Is it just me.....

[qv09vvp]

I'm always surprised when I see a dvc listing that is just WAY out of line for what the market is showing.

but then again, I've seen the same thing on ebay ...and a simple search will show the same item but cheaper listed somewhere else.....

 

[minorthr]

I was just going to post a similar thread. We are in the market right now and Ive seen some that are $30-$40 per point higher then what Im seeing over the last 6 months in the ROFR thread here. A few of them are even listed as only full price offers accepted. Is the ROFR thread here a decent gauge of pricing? Some of them I'd like to make an offer but don't want to insult them.

 

[qv09vvp]

Good...its not just me then. I was really using the ROFR as my guideline which is why I was seeing some of those listing as way too high.

 

[fearthisinc]

It is like anything else you are selling.. You start high to negotiate down to where you want.. I have sold many many items in the past.. Cars, boats, motorcycles, etc.. If you know you want 5k for an item you start it at 6,500 and work your way down to the price you want.. I always get asked "What is your bottom line price".. Even after finding out what the bottom line price is, people still want to try and get you down further.. It is a mental game.. People want to feel like they got a great deal.. So for these contracts, if you start the price per point at say $110 for an Animal Kingdom contract and then work down to say $90, the buyer will think they saved $20 per point and made out great. When in reality they probably paid above the going rate..

 

[1momof3boys3]

Prices are outrageous right now. I have one in ROFR right now, but if it's taken I'll be waiting until the fall/winter to see if prices come down. I have noticed that some companies are much higher than others so I stopped following them. =/ It lowers my chances of finding something, but I can't justify spending that much more.

 

[SPLzero]

I wonder if the agents are trying to inflate the prices. We are looking for akv with rofr prices in the high 70 low 80 and all of a sudden every listing is for high 90s to low 100s. Then when you offer mid 80s they counter with 2 dollars pp lower then asking.

 

[zavandor]

Is the ROFR thread here a decent gauge of pricing? Some of them I'd like to make an offer but don't want to insult them.

The ROFR thread certainly offers a very good insight of the market, adding information that are difficult or impossible to find on the official register website (like how many points were in the contract). However it only lists the contracts that someone has posted here, this means that:
- people on the DISboards are probably more knowleadgeable than the average DVC buyer. We're the people who know which are the better deals!
- people are more likely to post a good deal rather than a purchase they know they've paid a bit more because it was the perfect UY or was just the right number of points
I think the average resale sell price is higher than the average price in the ROFR thread.

About your second question: in a real estate transaction, no one insults no one. Offer what you think it's a reasonable price, if the owner finds it's too low, they'll reject your offer and you can move one. Offer what you think is reasonable until you find someone who accepts.
Good luck!

 

[minorthr]

I ended up putting in an offer that I felt was borderline me overpaying but way below their ask. They came back with a counter that was still $30 per point higher then in my opinion it should be. I rejected it and told the agent we were too far apart and the ask was way too high. The agent replied back that they agreed, but the seller has high expectations.

 

[mustinjourney]

I wonder if the agents are trying to inflate the prices. We are looking for akv with rofr prices in the high 70 low 80 and all of a sudden every listing is for high 90s to low 100s. Then when you offer mid 80s they counter with 2 dollars pp lower then asking.

I know it might seem that it's in the agent's best interest to inflate the prices but in reality, it's in their best interest to sell quickly. Think about it, if you were the agent, would you rather get paid your commission a month earlier and lose out on a few dollars? Or would you rather wait around and get the maximum amount? Ethics aside, if it was me, I would do my best to find the max price that sells very quickly.

Remember, the brokers keep a max of about 10% of the contract. So holding out for $10 more per point only gets the agent an extra $1 per point. Even on a 200 point contract, that is $200 extra. Let's say we're talking a 200 point contract at BLT. I know if I price at $110 it will sell very quickly. At $120 it might take a month or so. At $130, it will sit.

The contract values are as follows:
110 -- $22,000 (agent gets $2200) -- sold immediately -- closes probably 80 days after listing
120 -- $24,000 (agent gets ($2400) -- takes a few weeks to sell -- closes probably 100 days after listing
130 -- $26,000 (agent gets ($2600) -- probably doesn't close at that price. Will likely sit around and waste everyone's time. Will have to field a lot of offers below asking price and do a lot of back and forths. Absolute time killer.

Ask youself, if you were the agent, which price would you push? I certainly wouldn't push for the $130. The extra $200 you get above the other listing is just not worth the hassle and aggravation. The seller gets an extra $1800 ($2000 minus the $200 agent fee) for increasing the price $10 per point -- which is a not-insignificant amount of money.

Just like anything, some sellers might not need money and are just throwing it out there to see if there is anyone desperate enough to buy it. If there aren't a lot of contracts out there, and direct through Disney is $185 a point, I could see a seller asking for $140 and still thinking it's reasonable.

 

[mustinjourney]

I was just going to post a similar thread. We are in the market right now and Ive seen some that are $30-$40 per point higher then what Im seeing over the last 6 months in the ROFR thread here. A few of them are even listed as only full price offers accepted. Is the ROFR thread here a decent gauge of pricing? Some of them I'd like to make an offer but don't want to insult them.

I wouldn't worry about insulting anyone. You are a faceless person and will likely never see or meet the person in real life.

I know these things are real estate purchases, but it seems that many sellers get emotionally attached to them like they would their own house. I kept telling the agents last year when I was looking that these things are just a commodity. Every point at a resort is exactly the same. It's not like buying a house, since every house is in a different location and has slightly different features. Buying points should be like buying sugar or salt. Yes, each resort is different from the other resorts, so SSR will be priced differently from VGF -- but if I'm buying VGF, all VGF points are created equal and pricing should really only take into account how many points are in the contract (buying in bulk gets you discounts) and how many points are remaining (i.e., stripped versus loaded).

Obviously, some people will overpay to get a contract that "perfectly" meets their needs (right point total and matching UY to other contracts) -- but that isn't the case for many purchases.

 

[MamaCrystal]

We actually accepted a seller's counter offer yesterday for $2.50/point under asking. Today get a call that they changed their mind... they now want full asking! We walked because we became nervous about completing the process with that seller. Yes, it appears to be a crazy time for the market!

 

[chiisai]

We actually accepted a seller's counter offer yesterday for $2.50/point under asking. Today get a call that they changed their mind... they now want full asking! We walked because we became nervous about completing the process with that seller. Yes, it appears to be a crazy time for the market!

Good call.

 

[miTnosnhoJ]

We actually accepted a seller's counter offer yesterday for $2.50/point under asking. Today get a call that they changed their mind... they now want full asking! We walked because we became nervous about completing the process with that seller. Yes, it appears to be a crazy time for the market!

Chances are they got a full price offer just after they accepted your offer. They are probably on the phone telling the other party to raise their full price offer. Good call on changing brokers.

 

[MamaCrystal]

Chances are they got a full price offer just after they accepted your offer. They are probably on the phone telling the other party to raise their full price offer. Good call on changing brokers.

Broker seemed very apologetic and even said he didn't agree with their decision to change last minute and hoped it wouldn't reflect poorly on the company for us. We assumed it was a seller issue but maybe we're too naive Either way, lost a buyer over less than 2% of the contract price. It was already a good price for both parties. My husband's background is in actuarial science and analytics so we're pretty methodical about pricing. Bummer that a last minute grab ruined the deal!

 

[AnnaKat]

I wonder if the agents are trying to inflate the prices. We are looking for akv with rofr prices in the high 70 low 80 and all of a sudden every listing is for high 90s to low 100s. Then when you offer mid 80s they counter with 2 dollars pp lower then asking.

That is a HUGE shift for AKV!!!
Could the huge success of Pandora have something to do with the sudden HUGE pp increase!!!

 

[Smilelea]

That is a HUGE shift for AKV!!!
Could the huge success of Pandora have something to do with the sudden HUGE pp increase!!!

I wondered if all the D23 announcements would make all the resale prices jump.

 

[fearthisinc]

I have also seen that a lot of sellers that offer "loaded" contract are expecting the rental rate for the "extra" points.. I was dealing with an Animal kingdom auction which had double points for 2017 cuz of banked 2016 points.. We basically gave them a full price offer (forget the exact amount).. The seller rejected and said they wanted a few thousand more.. After doing the math they basically added up the extra points and factored what they would have gotten from a rental site and wanted the extra money.. At that point I just walked.. I mean, yes.. I could have just rented out myself, but there was no incentive to go through them.. Even the broker through they were ridiculous..

 

[mustinjourney]

That is a HUGE shift for AKV!!!
Could the huge success of Pandora have something to do with the sudden HUGE pp increase!!!

Prices have been trending up at almost all of the resorts since around April or May of this year. VGF and Poly seem to be the only ones that haven't experienced a big increase.

 

[minorthr]

Prices have been trending up at almost all of the resorts since around April or May of this year. VGF and Poly seem to be the only ones that haven't experienced a big increase.

Have they been trending up enough to push OKW to 120 a point?

 

[imaginiff]

Have they been trending up enough to push OKW to 120 a point?

Have you seen 120 for OKW? I did see AKL for $115, 51 point contract, that went immediately. Small contracts are commanding quite the high price per point. I think people that already own at certain resorts want to add on now and are willing to pay premium price. Certainly Pandora has impacted the price of AKL and Star Wars and Toy Story land will impact BWV and BCV....which is why Poly and GFV are kind of staying the same.....in my opinion, I'm not a real estate expert.