@Tifflovesdisney I am sure you already know this but you can always book your stay with Disney directly as soon as the offer comes out and then cancel at least 5 days prior to check in if you find you decide to do the DVC points instead.
From the Aulani website
In order to receive a full refund of your deposit for a “room only” booking—including credit card deposit transactions—notification of cancellation must be received at least 5 days prior to your arrival date.
The rules are different on vacation packages including when you add insurance
However, please note that in the case of a vacation package—or if you have booked other components with your room such as flight, car rental, travel insurance, etc.—the required notification timeframe is 30 days or more, with a $400 cancel fee if notice is 29 days or less