During training I can do blind runs and be pretty much +/- 10 seconds. But thus far that hasn't carried over to racing (as seen by the dip). And I think the dip could be a big problem. If there's a Lactate Threshold and I'm passing it at mile 14-15 then I'm setting myself up for the fade later in the race. If it were more even then I'd likely delay the fade and finish faster (by just a little).
Absolutely. It's been my experience that the key to the marathon is pacing, more so than any other race.
Seems reasonable. I'll try to do my homework before the race and during just trust my instincts. Although correct me if I'm wrong I think the goal of pacers is to come across about 1-2 minutes ahead of goal pace. Between that and compensating for not running 26.2 miles exactly, it would cause the pacers to be a bit aggressive from a pace standpoint even though they're right in line with their duty.
Generally I'd agree - pacers should be early rather than late. In a marathon though (especially in a marathon!), starting too fast is almost always a bad idea. I don't mean to be critical of them at all - they're volunteers and I always try to thank them to let them know I appreciate their efforts. It's not an easy task and I doubt I could do it well. That being said, I had an interesting conversation during the
Disneyland Half this past year with the 1:40 pacer in that race. He was an official Clif Bar pacer, and he was aiming for even splits. At every mile marker he announced where the group was pace-wise, and at the end he was pretty much dead-on, just a few seconds under 1:40. Since he was also from Virginia, we got to talking about races back home, and he actually brought up the 3:15 pace group from the 2015 Richmond! He'd heard about how they started rather fast and he wasn't a fan of that approach. I found it amusing that that group had reached a certain level of infamy in pacer lore. Again though, he was a 'sponsored' pacer who'd been doing it for a while, and the Richmond pacers were just local running club volunteers - I don't want to sound ungrateful for their work.
I haven't read Matt Fitzgerald's book, but I have read all of the available scientific literature by Samuele Marcora. I believe his research is the basis for Fitzgerald's book. I'm a big believer in Marcora's Psychobiological Model as it seems to fit my understanding of the situation. I like it better than the central governor model.
Here is my breif blurb on it.
Excellent summary. Fitzgerald cites to Marcora quite a bit, and you've got a firm grasp on the material, obviously!
The biggest reason I had moved away from "checking in" and doing blind only was my extreme negativity to missing pace. I was super strict with my pacing for the WI Marathon in 2015. For the first few miles I was right on pace for breaking 4 hours (my major milestone goal I'd been chasing for 3 years), but around mile 8-10 the pace started to slip by a few seconds. I freaked out and got really negative. I had put so much into that run to break 4 hours and I could feel it slipping away. I almost DNF'ed at mile 11 by just quitting. I decided to just finish the race and came in at my worst time ever at 4:58. From there I decided I needed to remove the negativity and gravitated towards blind running to remove the pace (negativity) variable. I just need to be better with this and be less negative while racing.
My first race that was nearly completely blind was the Lakefront Marathon in 2015. I had a -4:53 negative split and one of the best race experiences ever. So after a terrible pacing race and an amazing blind race, I gravitated towards sticking with blind. But it seems now it's causing a detriment with the dip I'm not correcting for mid-race.
Sounds like you might want to look at the mental aspect a little more in your training. I've found that as distance goes up, having a 'trained' psyche is as important as having a trained body. When I completed my first 50-miler last year, I found that I reached a certain point of tiredness/soreness around Mile 35 that didn't get any worse for the rest of the day, and then it just became a mental exercise of staying positive and focusing on the finish. Being able to do that is what got me to the finish.
One thing that stands out about your training is how planned/rigid it is. This isn't a criticism because if it works
for you, stick with it! I just wonder if you're getting enough mental rest/recovery in there. Like you and a lot of serious runners, I like to chase goals (PRs, BQs, age-group awards, etc.) to keep myself motivated, but running is also cheap therapy for me, a chance to get some quiet time, bounce some thoughts around in my head, enjoy the outdoors, be in the moment, etc. Thus, when I'm not in a specific training cycle, I very much run by whim and feel. I'll walk out the door with no specific idea of how far or how fast I'm running that day, and I love the freedom that gives me. I'll even do 'crazy' things like what I did this past weekend - enter a local marathon just because the weather was nice and I've been wanting to try it. I did it with no taper and poor pacing (another crash n' burn), but I still had a great time meeting other runners and seeing some old friends on a beautiful day. It's not the first time I've done any of that either, and for me, it's important to learn how to find the positive in a race even if I miss my (in this case, unrealistic) time goal. I've usually approached Disney races the same way - it's about the fun and the medal, and recently about running with family and friends. Disney events are all my PWs (personal worsts), but that's OK - they've all been a great time regardless. I've stopped for pictures, chatted with other runners, admired some great costumes, and had a blast. I've even PR'ed during a 'non-training' period. My current half PR, which I still haven't cracked nearly three years later, was a local race I entered on a whim and started way too fast just to see how long I could hold the pace. Turns out I could hold it until the end, and to this day, I still haven't beaten it. (My last 'white whale'!)
Of course, I need to chase time sometimes too, and to do that in a marathon, I know I need to add some structure to my running. A strict plan has gotten me to three BQs and a bunch of PRs I'm proud of, but it takes a mental toll too. By the end of a cycle, I'm just mentally drained and dying to get back to my 'rebel' running of doing whatever I feel like doing that particular day. I know for me the 'mental' recovery is as important as the physical recovery following a target marathon.
Anyway,
for me, finding the right balance between 'fun' and serious running has been crucial to achieving my best results. Every runner is unique so make of that what you will, but I wish you the best and good luck chasing your goals. I admire your focus and dedication, and I think you'll get there! Happy running!
