Inventory This High?

[SL6827]

I had thought that the DL APs were the bigger problem for Disney. Too many locals in the park that were not spending enough money. But now that doesn't seem to be the case?

 

[HIRyeDVC]

What makes you think that Disney wants lower crowds?

Ha! Now you're onto something. I never said Disney WANTED lower crowds. I only said Disney wants to improve the overall "guest experience" in relation to overcrowding. I don't believe Disney wants lower crowds either. It's all a farce! They want higher crowds AND higher prices! APs preclude Disney from charging higher prices.

 

[Lumpy1106]

yeah. DLR is a complete "locals" park. It's completely overrun. WDW "locals" probably mean the entire South East. Are you saying that crowds on AP blocked out dates like Christmas week is cut in half? What universe is this?!

I was posting about DL/DCA, pre-C when there were no restrictions on AP sales. Back then all but the top level APs were blacked out on Memorial Day weekend, and none were blacked out the weekend before. It was night and day crowd-wise. We tried to go the weekend before and literally got turned around at the parking lot. We paid the premium ticket price and went Memorial Day weekend instead. It was far more sane.

Making it clear though, I am not a FL local so I really don't know what the affect was there.

 

[jkh36619]

I think AP's are going to be completely phased out in the coming years. People are too willing to buy tickets or packages. During times they feel they need locals, they will simply offer deeply discounted day tickets. They have been more profitable with less AP's. What if no AP's? Plus we all know Disney could just offer hotel discounts, free dining, or anything else and people will come.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

This is what I meant. Even with this plan, I'd still spend a ton of money for airfares and everything else. Yes, I would save around $1000 by going twice within the 12 mo timeframe on tickets. But it'll be offset by other costs. But that's just MY personal situation. Believe me, I'd go to WDW more often if I could.

Most DVCer's, although not all, probably go at least once a year but if you purchased for every other year then no, it would not work. If you went every year and used this technique on the AP then airfare wouldn't be more as it's not going more often just not timed 12 months apart. Instead something like 11 months then 13 months or something like that.

 

[KTownRaider]

I personally hope the APs never come back.

If I was a local, I would definitely want one too. But I'm not. And it's just the way I feel.

So what I think you're saying is that we just need you to stop procrastinating your inevitable move to Fullerton, CA before you join Team AP...

 

[E2ME2]

They way to benefit was to go twice within the 12 month timeframe of the AP so close to once a year but offset slightly. Then wait to purchase your next AP and time visits that way again.

This^
We did that for the first 9 years of our DVC ownership, buying APs every 3rd year. Fortunately, we renewed our APs during COVID, and are not going to let them go.
We stay 6-8 weeks each year, now that we’re retired, so APs save us a ton of money, even at today’s prices.

 

[RichVIII]

APs is how we ended up buying DVC. We bought more DVC with when we started using our APs more. Both have allowed us a more relaxed approach (generally to WDW).

Local APs fill up Epcot during festivals. Drivable APs probably use them the most. We are a flying out-of-state APs and use ours once or twice a year. It allows us to swing by MK for a Dole Whip on our last day or swing in for fireworks on our arrival night (we would never buy tickets for those days). Do DVC APs spend and act differently. I would love to no the data. And like OP said, Disney wants it all but doesn’t know how to satisfy each audience.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

Most DVCer's, although not all, probably go at least once a year but if you purchased for every other year then no, it would not work. If you went every year and used this technique on the AP then airfare wouldn't be more as it's not going more often just not timed 12 months apart. Instead something like 11 months then 13 months or something like that.

I totally get the strategy and would be tempted myself to upgrade our current 10-day pass for Sorcerer passes if they were to go on sale prior to our upcoming trip in August. But even still, our trips are always in late August, which we like because most FL schools are back in session by then. If I were to get APs, my next trip would haveto be at the beginning of August, while schools are still out. Airfare is also more expensive in early August than late August. I suppose it's still a better deal than to spend an extra $1000 on day tickets. But as I've said, having an AP isn't all that critical for us. If anything, we feel less "imprisoned" by NOT having APs because we won't feel compelled to go more, if that makes sense.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

So what I think you're saying is that we just need you to stop procrastinating your inevitable move to Fullerton, CA before you join Team AP...

HA! Nice try my friend. Unfortunately, I missed my opportunity to buy my Fullerton retirement home 20 years ago! Besides, only the Inspire keys are available for sale. 4 of those and I might haveto sell a kidney.

 

[kilik64]

My perception, is that APs facilitate overcrowding. I am not a local to either parks. I only visit once a year so not having APs do not effect me at all. I understand the issue is contentious. But I think Disney would solve overcrowding in an instant if EVERYONE had to pay day tickets.

I can get behind that.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

I think AP's are going to be completely phased out in the coming years. People are too willing to buy tickets or packages. During times they feel they need locals, they will simply offer deeply discounted day tickets. They have been more profitable with less AP's. What if no AP's? Plus we all know Disney could just offer hotel discounts, free dining, or anything else and people will come.

If that were the case, I don't think they would be allowing renewals but they are. In DLR, they're still selling new ones. I don't think Disney wants to get rid of APs altogether. They need some AP holders to maintain steady business during the dark times. But they probably have a "right sized" number of APs that they allow to maintain a healthy balance between APs and day ticket holders.

 

[BamaGuy44]

Either way, their "crowd estimates" are still an interpretation of wait times, and not actual attendance. As far as WDW goes, I wouldn't be surprised that crowds may be easing as we move further away from the revenge travel surge and the 50th Anniversary winds down. I was there last week and didn't see or feel any real difference from March 2022. As for DL, I can say that actual internal attendance projections are not significantly down from last year (which could also be related to the beginning of the 100th Anniversary celebration), regardless of whatever hotel discounts may be being offered for the summer.

Yeah they're pretty open about the fact that wait times aren't a great indicator of how crowded a park "feels" just walking around, but it's the only hard data they have. They also admit with Covid, revenge travel, staff shortages, park reservations, Genie+, etc etc, all the old patterns are out the window and crowd calendars are all but obsolete.

 

[BamaGuy44]

My perception, is that APs facilitate overcrowding. I am not a local to either parks. I only visit once a year so not having APs do not effect me at all. I understand the issue is contentious. But I think Disney would solve overcrowding in an instant if EVERYONE had to pay day tickets.

It probably would solve it, but I'm still not hoping APs don't come back. I've been going once or twice a year for 20+ years and never had the need for an AP, so them being gone doesn't affect me personally. But it would be bad for the company and the parks overall in the long run, IMO.

 

[HIRyeDVC]

It probably would solve it, but I'm still not hoping APs don't come back. I've been going once or twice a year for 20+ years and never had the need for an AP, so them being gone doesn't affect me personally. But it would be bad for the company and the parks overall in the long run, IMO.

I don‘t think Disney will ever get rid of APs entirely. Just limit them, which is what they’re doing now. The parks are so crowded already. I can only imagine how much more crowded it would be if everyone who wanted an AP can have them.

 

[BamaGuy44]

I don‘t think Disney will ever get rid of APs entirely. Just limit them, which is what they’re doing now. The parks are so crowded already. I can only imagine how much more crowded it would be if everyone who wanted an AP can have them.

Yeah I think a combo of limited sales and limiting park reservations for AP holders will be the long range plan. Finding the right balance will be tricky

 

[kboo]

Touringplans bases much of their reporting on reported attraction wait times in My Disney Experience (which we all know is subject to wild manipulation by Disney and an imperfect science in itself). I don't disagree that it's useful to take a look at, but preaching it here like it's the gospel is a bit much.

I thought they had their own app where people reported their actual wait times directly to them?

TP times can be hit or miss - we use the app and sometimes I report actual wait times. But there are plenty of times where I either forget to stop the timer or I'm deep in the ride area with no signal (FOP) and so the times can be a little inaccurate for that day, though you definitely can see trends because they have so much data. I do think the times in MDE are sometimes used to move people in one direction or another, especially near park closing times.

Either way, their "crowd estimates" are still an interpretation of wait times, and not actual attendance. As far as WDW goes, I wouldn't be surprised that crowds may be easing as we move further away from the revenge travel surge and the 50th Anniversary winds down. I was there last week and didn't see or feel any real difference from March 2022. As for DL, I can say that actual internal attendance projections are not significantly down from last year (which could also be related to the beginning of the 100th Anniversary celebration), regardless of whatever hotel discounts may be being offered for the summer.

WDW only - When hotels were at 50% capacity I definitely noticed a difference when we visited - the parks got really busy on the weekends when locals came. The "guest experience" during the week was pretty amazing, though. even during holiday breaks. Pre-Covid, school breaks were busy ALL the time (and now that my kids are solidly school age), and we just sucked it up and knew it was going to be crowded.

there's also a lot of first timers always showing up -- and they have no idea what things used to be like -- so they do not have a baseline to compare it to.

Agree - I saw a lot more "first time" buttons and big family groups in our 2021-2022 trips, and I wonder if there isn't a little bit of revenge travel + during C we had near misses / realized how much our family means to us, leading to more trips that maybe couldn't be put off any longer. I'd be interested to see how many of those first timers did a DVC tour, or bought DVC...

But at some point -- and quite frankly I'm shocked it hasn't happened yet -- disney is going to price out even the first timers.

If a family of 4 wants to spend a week in a regular hotel room at a monorail resort, they're looking at close to $7000 in lodging -- $2800 in tickets -- $700 in genie+/ILL, and then food, souvenirs, memory maker, and other stuff.

That's over $11,000.

Throw in airfare and you're over $12,000.


That's a jaw dropping number.

That is definitely true. I know more friends (and remember, we are talking to a self-selected group of pretty informed DVC owners) in the last few years who have taken trips to Disney (these are public school friends):
1. a family of 6 with young kids who comes every year - they have the resources to buy DVC adn be in 2 bedrooms, and it would probably make sense for them, *except* Dad's job doesn't let him plan a vacation more than 1-3 mo in advance. So they are always flying some budget airline that has seats at some rough time of day (because that's all that's left at a reasonable price a week in advance during school vacation) and getting 2 connecting rooms at a good neighbor hotel. They pay for an outside person (local) to come to the parks, book their G+ for them, and watch their kids during rider switch.
2. Another family with 3 young kids where Mom had been taking kids on separate short trips, annually ... finally got Dad to come last summer, and he really didn't like it. (and they all got covid on that trip!) This mom has a friend who is a CM so they usually spend at least a day with the CM, which offsets some of the costs.
3. Another family of 6, my kids' BFFs, might be able to afford it, but oldest kid is now in 8th grade, and they have a vacation home nearby and the kids' grandparents live on the beach in NC. So there are many alternatives for school breaks that don't involve Disney.
4. Most recently, some good friends of ours, who got park hoppers for A DAY, drove in from Tampa (original trip was to visit spring training), rode RotR and MFSR and HS and then a few rides at MK.
5. Another school family (of 5) who prefers to stay at the Four Seasons.

Each of these families probably spends enough (or has spent, over time) to have bought DVC points and just booked a larger villa every other year, but for various reasons that are pretty reasonable they've chosen not to do that. We often see them at the parks and they're running around way more frazzled than we are, but they are still having a great time.

APs is how we ended up buying DVC. We bought more DVC with when we started using our APs more. Both have allowed us a more relaxed approach (generally to WDW).

Local APs fill up Epcot during festivals. Drivable APs probably use them the most. We are a flying out-of-state APs and use ours once or twice a year. It allows us to swing by MK for a Dole Whip on our last day or swing in for fireworks on our arrival night (we would never buy tickets for those days). Do DVC APs spend and act differently. I would love to no the data. And like OP said, Disney wants it all but doesn’t know how to satisfy each audience.

This is how we use our APs too. We have been AP holders since 2014 or 2015, before buying in to DVC . Our kids were just tiny at first so it was just 2 APs, but DH and I each had conferences in Orlando that we extended to family vacations, etc ...We rented points to stay in a 2br and housed my sister and parents, and the rest is history...
We will have gone an entire year between trips to WDW by the time we go this summer, but that's because we also went to DLR and AUL in between!

Our WDW home resorts are near MK and EP/HS. We love being able to pop in to a different park for dinner, or just swing by fireworks or catch one ride or show. I too would love to see the data - we still eat out a lot for dinner, less so for breakfast, but do stalk last minute ADRs. Having APs has allowed us to be more flexible and relaxed and not feel like we have to race around everywhere, and that has been priceless.

As for bringing this around back to APs and DVC purchase, we are still contemplating more DVC, but if we do, it is 99% likely to be resale and not tied to our APs - my sister lives in SoCal and my dad lives near SoCal, so it would be nice to have VGC points for a big family visit like we had at WDW last year, or we might get enough resale points to get us into a GV at one of our home resorts for a big family visit (instead of stalking a 2BR and a studio). My sister is never going to want APs or DVC, and I don't mind treating them every couple of years for a get together. They made a huge effort to get out to WDW from SoCal, we have the means to go there more easily, so ... that's how I am justifying my stalking of all the resale sites now.

 

[CaliforniaGirl09]

I don’t know, the breakeven point for the Sorcerers pass, if you timed it correctly, could be one weeklong trip per year. (This was when you could let the pass lapse between trips without worrying about having to renew it, so you could effectively get two trips, 358 days apart, every other year).

This is exactly why I'm debating right now on whether to renew our Sorcerers pass. I am a longtime Disneyland fan (being going for 50 years, LOL) and started making the trip to WDW after I started RunDisney races in 2015. We have owned VGC since it went on sale and added on to BLT to have a place to stay for races.

We were duo coast APers up until recently when I let my Magic Key lapse. We go for holidays and with those blocked out, it wasn't working for us. I've had an AP at Disneyland for about 25 years so it was very traumatic letting that go, LOL! Now, with the return of RunDisney races to the West Coast, WDW isn't as much of a draw.

We really enjoyed our first few years of WDW but a number of things have combined to make me re-evaluate whether it's worth the cross-country trek:
--Park experience. I hate Genie+ and having to get up at 7 am. The last time we were there for Princess (without my son) we ended up not even going to the parks even with valid APs and park reservations. We didn't want to buy Genie+ and didn't want to wait in long lines to do a couple rides. Not even the draw of an avocado margarita was enough to deal with the hassle of getting from BLT to Epcot and fighting through crowds
--Transportation. We hate the buses and pre-pandemic UBER/LYFT was awesome--inexpensive and fast. No longer.
--Flights. We fly Southwest (companion pass) and since the pandemic they've cut all nonstops from the Bay Area to MCO. A few times we've had to do two stops. The entire WN experience has also been horrible lately (different conversation LOL) so it's basically a PITA to get there now.
--Dining. We loved doing the deluxe dining plan and eating/drinking at a lot of the signature restaurants. A couple favorites were CA Grill brunch and Flying Fish. But pretty much all of our paid signature dining experiences lately have been horrible (I despise the prix fix model they've adopted at many) so the fun dining experience has lost it's fun. For us the better dining part of the equation was the one big plus in WDW vacations. Now that it's gone, we don't have that draw.
--RunDisney registration has become a total nightmare. If I knew I could sign up for races, I would be inclined to keep the pass. But I know I'd be so PO'd if I renewed the pass, reserved DVC, and then was unable to get a bib. The only way to avoid seems to be to join Club RunDisney, which isn't only $$s (assuming you can get in), but it kind of forces you to do more races than you might want to do to get your money out of it.
--The inability to buy an AP to cover two shorter trips. As quoted above, it's harder to bridge trips with the APs now so I have to commit to more trips, which I'm not sure I want to do. If I knew I could buy an AP, I would probably be booking more trips.
--If BLT wasn't in such a slump, we were actually considering selling. The one thing in the plus column for renewing aside from races is that we have BLT for probably a couple years until rebound (if rebound).
My husband says to just renew so we have it if we decide to do 2+ trips next year, but I'm inclined to let it lapse. I know myself and having the AP will make me more likely to book more trips than I ideally want to do. If we don't have it, we may not even go next year.

All of this is my long-winded way of saying that, not having discounted APs available to DVC owners is impacting our decision as to whether to remain DVC owners at BLT. Without that perk all kinds of other considerations such as the ones I listed above start to impact the number of trips we plan and whether we will come at all. The more they dilute the DVC product the lower the bottom will go, IMO. I suspect that they are holding back DVC AP passes as a way of jumpstarting sales when things get bleak due to the economy. My guess is that day is coming soon if it hasn't really started.

Probably another reason for me not to renew, LOL!

 

[RoseGold]

I had thought that the DL APs were the bigger problem for Disney. Too many locals in the park that were not spending enough money. But now that doesn't seem to be the case?

They fixed that with the super limited park reservation system. WDW could also do the same to their APs, but hasn't really yet.

We hate the buses and pre-pandemic UBER/LYFT was awesome--inexpensive and fast. No longer.

I'm with you on all your complaints except this one. I think Lyft is doing better than ever. Never waited more than a couple minutes anywhere in Orlando.

 

[Miffy]

My perception, is that APs facilitate overcrowding. I am not a local to either parks. I only visit once a year so not having APs do not effect me at all. I understand the issue is contentious. But I think Disney would solve overcrowding in an instant if EVERYONE had to pay day tickets.

Well, you could argue that resorts that cost under $600/night are facilitating overcrowding, so therefore they should either rip down all the Values and Mods or raise the prices there so that even All Star Sports, for example, would cost $600/night.

Also, all discounts encourage overcrowding, so perhaps you want to get rid of them, too?

And maybe Disney should stop advertising, since for sure that costs them a bundle and also leads to overcrowding, since it amps up demand.

Just wondering.