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[Bruggok]

Aside from price discounts, Disney likely also manipulate blue card minimum. As blue card minimum climbs, people think "this is my last chance! it keeps rising!" and pay up. Eventually the minimum rise to some unsustainable level such as 250 or 300 and no willing buyer is left. Disney then slowly drops it, and those who held firm now think "wow this is as low as it'll go, I better buy now". This is the same kind of psychology that causes people great losses in the stock market, except here Disney actually control all the parameters and all we have is our discipline/willpower.

 

[Sheriff1]

Anyone know if they’re still covering closing costs with this new round of incentives?

 

[sethschroeder]

You’ve argued repeatedly that Disney is in no rush to sell out Riviera in the absence of an eminent new resort, but suddenly selling out more quickly is a motivator?

Sorry I posed a possible option of how they could change the sales incentives.

I am not saying they are doing this. I am not saying it's the only way. I am not saying it would actually sell anything faster.

I have also never said ever they are not in a hurry to sell out RIV. I said they are not worried about selling out RIV. That is a huge difference.

RIV was on pace to sell out before closure when Reflections was going to launch. It was perfect timing. Disney has adjusted because they know the economy and world dictate a different barometer for success.

People taking this way to literally. I also work in a position where I deal with programs and sales incentives development. So I am throwing out an idea that is more plausible in my mind. I don't work in real estate though but with large contracts.

 

[sethschroeder]

Aside from price discounts, Disney likely also manipulate blue card minimum. As blue card minimum climbs, people think "this is my last chance! it keeps rising!" and pay up. Eventually the minimum rise to some unsustainable level such as 250 or 300 and no willing buyer is left. Disney then slowly drops it, and those who held firm now think "wow this is as low as it'll go, I better buy now". This is the same kind of psychology that causes people great losses in the stock market, except here Disney actually control all the parameters and all we have is our discipline/willpower.

Within 15 years the restrictions will help push direct sales in addition to things like discounted tickets.

Also the minimum purchase has been higher in the past so I think it's an eb and flow over time. I know it's been brought up about an extra fee or other things to turn resale in to direct points.

Also possible Disney puts a 100% requirement on points to get you direct benefits (no per membership but you as an individual).

 

[Mumof4mice]

Also possible Disney puts a 100% requirement on points to get you direct benefits (no per membership but you as an individual).

Anything is possible but this is extremely unlikely.

How would this restriction be executed? Requiring existing resale owners to purge themselves of tainted contracts before buying direct points? Excommunicating direct owners if they dare to stray? I'm curious which industry you believe this type of "sales and incentive program" could work in.

 

[sethschroeder]

Anything is possible but this is extremely unlikely.

How would this restriction be executed? Requiring existing resale owners to purge themselves of tainted contracts before buying direct points? Excommunicating direct owners if they dare to stray? I'm curious which industry you believe this type of "sales and incentive program" could work in.

Like anything else they do you would be grand fathered in if already a direct member. Someone looking to become a direct member would have to pay an extra fee or fee per point.

Computer systems can easily track all this.

It would be written in the rules when you buy so being a little dramatic with saying excommunication.

Most people when buying don't even know about resale. This would be in the terms and thus when people go to add on its a simple message that if you don't buy from Disney you lose access to benefits.

No different than resale restrictions, point minimum requirements, or any other "aggressive" positions on policy. There will be a small group upset about it but they likely were not buying your direct points long term anyways.

Majority of DVC members today are direct only members and that is unlikely to really ever change as the guessed flip rate for points is 20% of the resort after 20 years.

 

[Bing Showei]

It would be written in the rules when you buy so being a little dramatic with saying excommunication.

What you’re proposing is the literal definition of the word “excommunication”; not clear on where the drama is.

But I agree with you that such draconian measures would be in keeping with the sentiments behind the resale restrictions. And owners will be fine with it. Some owners will even learn to embrace and defend it and then dream up even more restrictive measures that Disney could implement.

So yeah, I can see it happening.

 

[sethschroeder]

What you’re proposing is the literal definition of the word “excommunication”; not clear on where the drama is.

Um excommunication means being completely removed from a group. They would still own DVC and have the ability to stay at the resort.

When you get excommunicated from the church it's not just the bingo nights and pot lucks you lose access to.

So I don't agree with the terms use. I will leave it at that explanation.

 

[Mumof4mice]

Like anything else they do you would be grand fathered in if already a direct member. Someone looking to become a direct member would have to pay an extra fee or fee per point.

Computer systems can easily track all this.

It would be written in the rules when you buy so being a little dramatic with saying excommunication.

Most people when buying don't even know about resale. This would be in the terms and thus when people go to add on its a simple message that if you don't buy from Disney you lose access to benefits.

No different than resale restrictions, point minimum requirements, or any other "aggressive" positions on policy. There will be a small group upset about it but they likely were not buying your direct points long term anyways.

Majority of DVC members today are direct only members and that is unlikely to really ever change as the guessed flip rate for points is 20% of the resort after 20 years.

You missed the point. The discussion wasn't logistical ("computer systems can track all this"), but how a policy like this could serve to incentivise sales.

Consumer unfriendly policies are not introduced to be punitive. Companies expect benefits to profits in exchange for the damage to goodwill.

Tiered VIP system? Sure. Works for many systems.

Removing VIP benefits from a thousand-point member who buys a VGC resale? Not so much.

I can't think of an example of any airline or hotel loyalty reward system that has adopted your suggested policy of removing benefits from qualified clients, who aren't exclusively loyal. Outside of the travel industry, no company in my fields of work does this. But hey, I don't work in a position where I deal with programs and sales incentives development. Hence the comment -

I'm curious which industry you believe this type of "sales and incentive program" could work in.

 

[Bing Showei]

Um excommunication means being completely removed from a group. They would still own DVC and have the ability to stay at the resort.

Oh my bad. I thought we were talking about getting kicked out of blue card membership. I didn't realize seizure of deeded real estate property was on the table as well. When you're kicked out of the church, my understanding is that they don't also run you over with the Popemobile so you give up the ghost, but I'll go Google that now.

I actually do agree with you that the latest restrictions show that incentives weren't enough, so they elected to go the route of addition by subtraction. They did it in such a severe way as to fundamentally change the product. So your suggestion of further going the stick route (versus the carrot route, which apparently didn't make them enough money) is in keeping with their willingness to do exactly that, and not too far a stretch, at all.

So yeah, I disagree with @Mumof4mice that this is extremely unlikely. The restrictions and success of Riviera clearly show that Disney is still leaving money on the table.

 

[Onceuponamarathon]

y'all are making this weird.

 

[i<3riviera]

͏

 

[pkrieger2287]

Disney Vacation Club Announces Additional “Cyber Savings” Event

https://dvcfan.com/2020/11/16/disney-vacation-club-announces-additional-cyber-savings-event/

 

[i<3riviera]

͏

 

[pkrieger2287]

It's interesting to see what this does to the savings breakdown:
- Copper Creek and Aulani are even more enticing.
- Riviera returns to about what we saw for Fall Incentives, and in some cases is even a little better.

 

[Brianstl]

It's interesting to see what this does to the savings breakdown:
- Copper Creek and Aulani are even more enticing.
- Riviera returns to about what we saw for Fall Incentives, and in some cases is even a little better.

A Riviera new member 200 point contract is now only $650 more than it was before the resort opened a year ago. A new member 300 point contract is now $1,500 cheaper than a year ago.

 

[mustinjourney]

I mean in reality why would it though?

Most people front load the value of the contract to the first 10 years. When you account for anyone buying at BCV only staying there it then becomes a math equation as to which is a better deal.

Example:
October 7 nights
Rack Rate: $609/$632/$703 = $4474 for a week ($2684.40 with a 40% discount)
Maintenance Fees: 114 (with MFs) = $804.84
Difference = $1,879.56
Additional discount (on top of 40%) I would want for buying DVC of 25% = $1409.67
Point Cost Per Year = $12.3655
20 years = $247.31/point
10 years = $123.65/point

Thing is just between last year and this year that same week in October for cash went up 6.3% in cost from 4207 to 4474 flip side MFs only went up 3.6%. So when I look down the road in I will be saving money.

You can go way more in depth but I think this is fairly easy to show why contracts likely won't start going down until around that 10 year mark. Hotel prices keep going up and my math is VERY generous when talking about what essentially is a 55% discount off rake rate (40% and then another 25%).

and I bought 25 points at BCV in 2016 for $165 direct to get the blue card. Cost me roughly $4000 for the 25 points -- but I have saved $250*4 for APs for 4 years now (plus got platinums for gold once) -- so the $4000 I spent upfront has already been paid for.

At this point -- my 25 points are more or less "making" me money each year since they save me the price of a Gold AP vs regular AP.

Best investment ever.



Of course -- I ended up adding on 25 more direct points at BCV so I could have longer stays...and then added on 150 at RIV...but we will ignore those costs.

Plus the costs of airplane tix due to the extra trip(s) I take now that I have APs...and extra points.

Did I mention how much money DVC saves you?

 

[CarolMN]

Did I mention how much money DVC saves you?

Oh, yes! It's a direct 1-way ink from one's own pocket to Disney's. Genius!

 

[Doberge]

Of course -- I ended up adding on 25 more direct points at BCV so I could have longer stays...and then added on 150 at RIV...but we will ignore those costs.

This is the way.

 

[havoc315]

Yes, OKW was the first DVC and originally had a 50-year contract, to 2042. The ones that came after - HHI, VB, BWV, VWL (now BRV), and BCV all expire in 2042 as well. SSR was the first DVC after OKW to have a 50-year contract span from its inception.

BTW, it seems that for the last five or even ten years, people have been expecting BWV and BCV prices to drop due to short contract length. So far they haven't dropped much. That old adage, location, location, location, may have something to do with it.

PS we paid $62.50 pp in 1997 after incentives. That's roughly $100 pp today. So if we sold now (we're not planning to, at all) we'd make a profit no matter how you look at it.

BCV and BWV resale prices will drop. Mathematical certainty. But might not really start to happen for a few more years.
Imagine it's 2041 -- BCV contract expires Jan 31, 2042. You want to stay at BVC in late 2041.... Why would you pay $120 per point, for points you're only going to use one time? (plus 1 year of annual fees). At current prices, you can just rent those points for $20.
And same keeps working backwards... in 2040... no semi-rational person would pay more than $40 per point, since you can only use them twice.. Throw in annual dues, and you'd be losing even more money.
Continuing backwards, we can see that approximately 2030-2032 would be the last chance to buy BCV/BWV points and "break even."
But of course, a big incentive of DVC is to "save" money on future vacations. So probably not enough demand solely for "break even." So I'd suspect prices to start dropping by the mid to late 2020's, and by the mid 2030's, for those contracts to have very low resale value.

I'd only buy BCV/BWV right now if I planned to just keep it for the next 22 years. If I was eying, "own it for 10 years and then sell..." then BCV/BWV could be very risky.