Hurricane Irma?

[mellvswdw1]

We are scheduled to arrive Saturday the 9th - 16th. I am so conflicted about what to do. Planned this trip with kids,husband and granddaughter over year ago. since then diagnosed with Breast cancer. This trip has been the one thing getting me thru treatments. I know they dont know impact yet but how long do I wait. Also will I lose money on MNSSHP?

Sending you lots of non creepy internet hugs

 

[ravenclawtrekkie]

So, the other week in another thread I was quite vocal about it being silly to worry without better info, that it was too far out to predict, etc. I still stand by those statements. That said: We have the better info now - and lots of the models are in relative agreement of this very powerful storm making a Florida strike. Florida is flat and wet. Our peninsula probably won't weaken the storm much on its journey north from Miami and/or the Keys. If it cuts straight up the middle of the state (which is not a sure thing - it could still go east or west) this has the potential to bring us some very strong winds in the WDW area.

If I were an out of state tourist with plans to visit in the next week, I would stay home. I personally don't think a Disney vacation is worth even a slight risk of experiencing the full force of a major hurricane.

I'm no panicking alarmist, but I may well board up my house's windows and brace the garage door if my landlord gives the okay, depending on what models show in the next couple of days. As of now, Disney expects me at work as usual or I'd consider a road trip to see some friends in Huntsville, Alabama. I'm not scheduled a day off until the 12th. We'll see.

If you do come, and I think most people won't change their plans that much, CMs will be there to take care of you as best we can. In return for our dedication to show up for our jobs when we probably shouldn't, please heed all warnings and instructions we give you, to ensure your safety and ours.

 

[AndreaA]

Given there are literally scores of models, which one are you referring to? Most of the present composite spaghetti maps (the ones that display multiple projected paths) have the heaviest concentration going right up through Florida. And BTW, latest NHS measurements show peak sustained winds approaching 180 mph with analysts saying the current and near term path of the storm may skirt the windward islands, which if the case means the storm would not be degraded by land terrain and could actually continue to strengthen as it approaches Florida.

And note the following comment made in todays 11am NHS update:

"Irma is the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin outside of the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico in the NHC records."

This is definitely not a storm you want to experience if it does enter Florida and takes a north/northwesterly track through it.

Yes, yes, yes, it's very strong. No one is debating that. The question is HOW STRONG will it be when it hits Florida or Orlando? So far I have seen NOTHING that puts top wind speeds in Orlando at ANYTHING close to 180mph. Most are 50mph or less, and while that's not a light breeze, it's not something to panic over. If it actually DOES go up the middle of Florida it will be even MORE dissipated by the time it reaches Orlando, but the models I am seeing have it either tracking up the east coast or going into the gulf and only hitting the tip of the panhandle.

 

[DoTheDisFam]

Come on you know what I mean. You don't want the eye to go over you. That's hurricanes 101

Correct. So, with the eye being the calmest, and you don't want the eye going over you, just how bad are the outer bands...is my point.

I dunno...Ive been through hurricanes as well as tornados and blizzards.

Running into a hurricane, especially with recent events, just makes no sense to me. As much as I am cautiously optimistic, I'm also quite leary at this time. So happy I decided to cancel for now.

 

[Sarahboo]

As someone who has never had to think about hurricanes before, by when should we have a good idea of when planes will stop taking off and landing at MCO? I'll happily change my flight if necessary, but if my flight can stay the same, that's ideal.

 

[Family B]

I think at the very least I will need to add a day to our trip. We were planning to be there 9/8 to 9/11 with late arrival/departure times. I just don't see how we won't be delayed getting out on Monday. I'm trying to wait for more information before making our decision to hold, move or shift. Luckily I can move our dates around since it is really just a quick weekend trip. I'm just waiting for the official policies to kick in with SW and Disney to make the call. In the meantime, we are packed up with extra clothes and plenty of snacks.

 

[Jerseylocks]

Just spoke with travel agent and I am rescheduled for June 2018. I am going to upgrade my room but will be sad the I will miss Halloween. I am eating the cost of a few things but I am at peace with that. Praying for safe travels to all who will continue to travel to WDW.

 

[mellvswdw1]

As someone who has never had to think about hurricanes before, by when should we have a good idea of when planes will stop taking off and landing at MCO? I'll happily change my flight if necessary, but if my flight can stay the same, that's ideal.

When is your trip? Are you staying on Disney property and what is your ability to be flexible

 

[Disneylvr]

I just added a night and will arrive on September 8th and will stay until the 13th. Will cancel everything on Thursday IF the Orlando area is expected to be in the direct path.

 

[stickeymouse]

This is probably a gross and selfish question

Yes, yes it was. I would post on another thread.

 

[SpookyJ]

I think at the very least I will need to add a day to our trip. We were planning to be there 9/8 to 9/11 with late arrival/departure times. I just don't see how we won't be delayed getting out on Monday. I'm trying to wait for more information before making our decision to hold, move or shift. Luckily I can move our dates around since it is really just a quick weekend trip. I'm just waiting for the official policies to kick in with SW and Disney to make the call. In the meantime, we are packed up with extra clothes and plenty of snacks.

I would be perfectly fine with adding a few days to my trip to make up for missed days, I'm just worried that this storm is historic and unlike anything WDW itself has experience... I know it's only closed a day or so for previous hurricanes but I'm worried this will be above and beyond and even adding a few days won't help..m

 

[aleh021]

For those who leave tomorrow or Thursday - Im sorry youre having to take a hit on cost with your trips in cancelling. I wish there was a definite answer as to how this will play out

 

[Sarahboo]

When is your trip? Are you staying on Disney property and what is your ability to be flexible

We're scheduled to land on the 9th at 3:05 pm and staying on Disney property until the 23rd. We have little to no flexibility, to be honest and we've been planning and saving for this trip for 3 years. We have no intention to be reckless and right now we're taking a "wait and see" approach, but we're also willing to go even if the parks are shut down for a day as long as it seems like we'd all be safe on property. We could probably fly in a day early but we can't stay past the 23rd.

 

[Sarahboo]

Also, I realize I have a major first world problem, and I am heartbroken for all of those who will face devastation because of this storm.

 

[AngiTN]

This is probably a gross and selfish question, but it's something bothering my wife and me. Is there a precedent for a big storm such as this to delay ride refurb? Splash Mountain is our favorite ride, and our trip is (coincidentally) starting the day the refurb is ending. Is there a chance we're gonna be SOL with Splash?

There is not. It's never happened

 

[Alyssacuse]

We are scheduled to arrive Saturday the 9th - 16th. I am so conflicted about what to do. Planned this trip with kids,husband and granddaughter over year ago. since then diagnosed with Breast cancer. This trip has been the one thing getting me thru treatments. I know they dont know impact yet but how long do I wait. Also will I lose money on MNSSHP?

We're traveling the exact same dates, and I have no idea what to do right now. I'm so sorry to hear about your diagnosis, and I hope your trip isn't too severely impacted. However, I'm hoping for the best and preparing for the worst. The only thing to do right now is to keep an eye on the reports and make a decision closer to the travel date :/ I'm planning on assessing on Thursday night and making a decision then based on how things are looking with weather reports and flight status.

 

[stickeymouse]

For those who leave tomorrow or Thursday - Im sorry youre having to take a hit on cost with your trips in cancelling. I wish there was a definite answer as to how this will play out

I'm willing to bet that Disney gets its act together within the next 24 hours. It would be bad press for them to make us eat any costs.

 

[luvsJack]

Not debating that at all. Not a word of it. But all that said, right now, does anyone know where it's going? No. The best, most well trained and experienced working on this right now can't tell you where it's going

No one knows where its going but you can actually say that up until the moment it hits land. MANY storms have bounced on and off shore and ended up in a different place. One thing they all seem to be agreeing on is that its coming at Florida in some direction. I agree that some could wait a couple of days before deciding to know more about what Orlando will experience.




I do not have a trip planned right now so I don't actually have a dog in the hunt, but for those of you wondering, IF it was me (and I notice a few others that go through these things a lot have said the same thing), I would cancel or try to reschedule, UNLESS this storm weakens immensely or comes into Florida in a way that it will weaken considerably before it gets to Orlando. Also, the wind speed that it may be at Orlando is important but how fast the storm is moving is too. If the storm sits over one spot blowing 50-100 mph winds and dumping rain, you can expect a lot of damage. Also, its not exact in knowing what the wind speeds will be in Orlando. How long its over land, how fast its moving and other things determine that. I am surprised at there being reports of that right now when they don't even know where its coming on land.

I live 81.7 miles from where Katrina made landfall in Waveland, MS. We had a tremendous amount of damage. Were without water for a few days, cell service for a week and power for weeks. The damage was severe. I am not saying that will happen in Orlando, I am saying it can happen. We evacuated before the storm to dh's aunt's home which is 181 miles from Waveland. And we had to drive the 100 miles home, very slowly while trees were cut out of the road ahead of us, all along the way power poles were down and everyone was without power and cell service, some without water. And if those things do happen it could make for a very miserable trip. The storm is scary but the aftermath, even inland can be very uncomfortable to put it mildly.


I say all that to say this; I may not would cancel today and wait until the last possible minute to do so just in case, but if this storm comes in Florida and is going over Orlando, I would cancel. Its not worth the risk. And after living with the whole no power, no water thing. . . yeah, wouldn't want to do that anywhere but home.

 

[TinkerBelle_325]

As someone who has never had to think about hurricanes before, by when should we have a good idea of when planes will stop taking off and landing at MCO? I'll happily change my flight if necessary, but if my flight can stay the same, that's ideal.

In the past MCO has closed the airport several hours before the hurricane was slated to go through. They have typically re-opened 24-36 hours later. That was our experience with Hurricane Matthew. MCO was closed for about 34 hours.

An example from Harvey - it made landfall as a Category 4 storm late on August 25th quite close to the Corpus Christi airport, which is significantly smaller than Orlando. It closed in the morning on Aug 25th and reopened the morning of August 27th.

In no way am I trying to make light of the impacts of Harvey, or the potential impacts of Irma, just pointing out the facts.

 

[AngiTN]

I'm willing to bet that Disney gets its act together within the next 24 hours. It would be bad press for them to make us eat any costs.

I am certain Disney will make a decision when more is known. The only people eating costs now are those making changes this early. Let more be known and they are really cooperative and flexible